GOBAMA

This week's institutional real estate world phrases that are being heard most often are:
1. Valuation
2. Sale of Secondary Interests
3. Potential LP default
4. Denominator
5. Unfunded commitment
6. No new money will be put out until 2010

As far as the overall commercial real estate market, well, I guess for there to be a market there need to be transactions which, for the most part, have taken a sabbatical. But for flavor I'll give you the headlines from the October Capital Trends Monthly from RCA:

1. Industrial Slowdown not as Heavy—Yet. Early October weakness hits
ahead of global trade downturn
2. Retail: No Shopper’s Paradise. Retail investors and consumers alike are guarding
their money, spelling trouble for sellers
3. Office: Amid Banking Fiasco, Office Sales Worst in Years. One pressured seller makes up 30% of Q3 sales
4. Apartments: Is This Door Closing Too? Apartments have lost the least ground
this year, but that could be changing

So, we're really feeling the stress throughout our industry. But, as I've said before, these are also times for opportunity and those that have the capital, the savvy and the nerve are starting to see more and more distressed situations. And, unfortunately, as 2008 creeps to it's end, while there are great hopes for America with our President-elect energizing the population, 2009 is going to be a very, very tough one.

This week's photo is the view from my home office in Montreal, well, actually Ste. Dorothee which is just across the river from the island of Montreal. The leaves have almost all fallen now and the vista is more stark but I find it actually more beautiful than during the summer. There are no jet-ski's whining, no boaters, just the river flowing and some remaining ducks who are challenging the potential sudden slap of real winter. The first Halloween in our new neighborhood was really something. There were so many kids and their parents dressed up and walking the street; you would have thought it was an organized parade. We were going out for dinner but we left a big bowl of candy on a table at the foot of our driveway (marked by two candles) as we didn't want people ringing the doorbell and driving the dogs nuts. But I think, next year, we'll also get into costume and be there to greet the trick or treaters personally. It was reassuring to see the celebrating of Haloween still lives in the families on our block in particular. It's a sign to me that society has not lost it's way completely.

The exciting election of Barack Obama this week was living history. And his speech was both brilliantly written and inspirationally delivered. In watching John McCain speak that night I almost got the feeling that he was relieved that it was over and that he didn't have to take on the challenges facing the next president of the U.S. We have so many problems to tackle and they all demand simultaneous attention, energy and money. It's like a big workout deal, a very big one and I guess, until you get inside and see what's what, you can't wave a magic wand and, voila, everything will be better. But something special is happening in the U.S. Do you know what it is Mr. Jones? It's a movement, it's the taking of ownership of the future by people, no matter from what generation, to change things. Of course, if you ask ten people what they want to change, they may all have different things and that's okay. But Obama, in brining back, for the first time since JFK, the spirit of volunteerism and the belief that, "Yes We Can" he has injected a belief of hope that things can turn around and it's much, much deeper than the financial crisis: it's about the quality of people's lives. And what more can you hand off to the next generation than the opportunity that anyone can achieve anything if they know, "Yes I Can." The world is on our side. The world needs the U.S. to be strong. The world wants to respect the U.S. And we have shown the world that we respect ourselves. Now it's up to us, not to talk about things, but 'be the change we want to see in the world.' We won't get a second chance, this is it and I know that we as a nation and as a global society are up to the challenge as long as we are willing to participate.

"Studs Terkel, Listener to Americans, Dies at 96" was a headline in last weekend's NY Times. I can't imagine that Studs would have liked to be called anything better than 'listener.'"Mr. Terkel succeeded as an interviewer in part because he believed most people had something to say worth hearing." So do I. Rather than 'talking or waiting to talk' how about we start spending some energy on listening. I have worked hard over the past 20 years to get myself to hold my tongue and let others talk. It's a challenge as I have so much to say that's important :-) but I can tell you that I have both gained a lot by keeping quiet at times and also, from what people tell me, developed a reputation for being a good listener. After all, we all like it when someone listens to what we're saying, right?


Where I'll be:

Nov. 10-14: New York where I'll moderate a panel at the PERE Forum (there's a special "FOS" (Friends of Steve) discount available. Please contact me for details (steve@simplicate.com).
Nov. 14-16: Ormond Beach, FL with my brother Jay to visit our Dad.
Nov. 18-21: The Netherlands
Nov. 19: Amsterdam for INREV's Investor Platform and Committee Meetings.
Nov. 26-12/1: Montreal
Dec. 1-5: New York
Dec. 8-12: London and to moderate a panel at the Reuters Real Estate Global Property Outlook 2009 on the 9th (Invitation only).
Dec. 15-19: New York
Dec. 22-Jan. 2, 2009: Montreal
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.

Thanks for reading my blog.
Many of you know that my life is built on people, on community, on collaboration and on sharing. This platform gives us all a chance to connect and reconnect. I am grateful for your support, suggestions and contributions. Thanks a lot.


Note: These are my personal views and not that of my employer.

Miami Beach

The South Beach section of Miami Beach has gotten a lot of attention as one of the most trendy beach and nitelife places in the world. The wonderful art deco architecture that has been preserved due to the foresight of the local authorities is the backdrop as you walk down Ocean Beach Drive after dark (ok, there are a lot of beautiful people spilling out of the restaurants and bars along this street too; it only adds to the experience). The photo on the left is the hotel next door to mine taken from my room. It's on Collins Ave. that there are so many of the classic hotels which have been preserved and upgraded.

I attended ULI's Fall Conference in Miami Beach this past week. There were 5,000 attendees across the full spectrum of disiplines involving real estate development (although very few investors).

Paul Volcker, former head of the Federal Reserve gave a terrific speech. Here are some takeaways:

1. There’s no doubt we’re in a recession, not just in the U.S.-it’ll be rather long before we get back to robust growth.
2. We have a crisis in our financial system-but, doesn’t ‘system’ imply some order?
3. We’re seeing and going to see government intervention beyond our imagination.
4. I’ve never seen anything or as complex as this situation.
5. We had a fancy financial system with ingenious ways of supporting capital needs with money coming from abroad.
6. Confidence and trust are the key issues
7. Even with all that the government is doing, people are still not confident
8. We’ve produced too few civil engineers and too many financial engineers

From Sam Zell’s ULI keynote about Latin America:
A. Transparency in Mexico for the first time is very important to new investment.
B. There is no greater issue in real estate than the issue of demand and the developed world has little in the way of new demand.
C. The developed world adjusted to the lack of demand by overleveraging.
D. Latin America, relatively speaking, will outperform the developed world.
E. This is the time that tries mens’ souls. This is the time that you find out if you have balls.
F. Brazil and Mexico are the only two places in Latin/South America where scale is achievable. If your goal is to build a world-class business you have to look to scalability.

My favorite ULI panel was the "Forecast Fight" moderated by NCREIF head, Doug Poutasse and including Bret Wilkerson of PPR, Jon Southard of Torto Wheaton, Ken Rosen of Rosen Consulting and Sam Chandan of REIS.
1. It's all about the economy and credit markets; it's not about real estate.
2. Prediction: deep recession lasting 4-6 quarters; key will be the behavior and sentiment of consumers.
3 Cap rates are a bad measure of what is going on.
4. The three things wrong with retail today are: supply, demand and pricing :-)
5. 2008 is the first time in 15 years that the use of retail 'coupons' is up.
6. The shift in the global path of goods is impacting industrial real estate and ports.

Although I feel that we've had enough speakers and panelists talk about what caused the problems this panel did provide forecasts on rent, vacancy and absorption in the four major property types (U.S. only). However, in response to my question, "What is the sentiment of European institutional investors re: the U.S.?" the consensus was that the train had already left the station, values are a mystery and debt is rare and pricey and when you combine that with the fact that the Euro doesn't go as far as it did just a few months ago, there was no real encouragement that European investors would be taking significant positions in the U.S. right now.

Hopefully, going forward, panelists will talk about what they're planning to do, what are their fears, their expectations, etc. It's up to panel moderators and conference organizers to push panelists away from the drivel and into the dynamic kind of talk that they would have with a friend in a one-to-one conversation. After all, the panel to an audience has a one-to-one relationship as well, doesn't it?

My parents were staunch supporters of JFK and so I grew up in that kind of environment. On election night 1960, I stayed up as late as I was allowed but the final results didn't come in until the middle of the night. I woke up to find that a small sign I had made on a shirt cardboard saying, "Kennedy for President" was changed to "Kennedy is President." I was excited and happy. This time around even with what has gone on and what the polls say (who do they ask anyway?) I feel that it won't take until the middle of the night next week for us to learn who the next President of the United States will be. It will be another of those rare, world-changing events that have occured in our lifetimes (The Beatles, Video Games, The Internet, Sushi, Space Travel, Gay Marriages, X-treme Sports, the Phillies winning a World Series, Wireless, Handheld Computers, GPS......) that generations from now people will still be talking about. Every generation lives through these type things but I think we have had our fair share of biggies. On Tuesday night, I will be toasting to a brighter tomorrow for the United States and the world. There is much work to be done and we must start now. And as Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe (1749-1832) stated in one of my favorite quotes, "Whatever you dream you can do, or believe you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power and magic in it." BTW, this quote is for us as individuals as well as for our world leaders.

Where I'll be:

Nov. 3-7: New York
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum (there's a special "FOS" (Friends of Steve) discount available. Please contact me for details (steve@simplicate.com).
Nov. 14-16: Ormond Beach, FL with my brother Jay to visit our Dad.
Nov. 18-21: The Netherlands
Nov. 19: Amsterdam for INREV's Investor Platform and Committee Meetings.
Nov. 26-12/1: Montreal
Dec. 1-5: New York
Dec. 8-12: London and to moderate a panel at the Reuters Real Estate Global Property Outlook 2009 on the 9th (Invitation only).
Dec. 15-19: New York
Dec. 22-Jan. 2, 2009: Montreal
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.

Thanks for reading my blog.
Many of you know that my life is built on people, on community, on collaboration and on sharing. This platform gives us all a chance to connect and reconnect. I am grateful for your support, suggestions and contributions. Thanks a lot.


Note: These are my personal views and not that of my employer.

How to feel good

I walked by two banks hosting cocktail receptions this week, trying to give their retail customers some comfort and feeling of safety and probably also to lure new customers (after all hors d'oeuvres and wine are a sure sign of safe conditions regarding your deposits aren’t they? Plus I don’t think they had any raw shrimp, just veggies and dip!). There isn’t anything that I know about what’s going on that you don’t already know; actually I don’t know if any of us really know too much but things seem to be starting to play themselves out. So I’m going to move to another subject.

Last night I attended the annual gala of The MacDella Cooper Foundation (MCF). Those of you who have been following my travels for at least two years remember that I went with MacDella to Liberia for a month in December/January 2006/7 during which time we hosted a Christmas party for 600 needy children. MCF supports needy children. At the event last night, Nathaniel Barnes, Liberia’s Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the U.N. made a poignant remark: “When you have nothing, all you can think about is having something.” Sadly, from what I saw in Monrovia, this holds true for many, many children there. We have grown up to recognize the importance of education but there is no public school system in Liberia. In order to go to private school, it costs approximately $200 per child per year. That’s all. But when unemployment is 85% and the average wage of those employed is $24/month, $200 could just as well be $2 million.

The vast majority of Americans have seen their investments drop at least 20%. No one is happy about that and many people are frightened. There is a fog over our society caused by the shattered underpinnings of the global financial markets. This is heady stuff and it’s taking it’s toll on us as people. But I’ve learned that when you help someone, even in a small way, it makes you feel better, about yourself. So, I have a suggestion about how you can feel better: go to your checkbook and write a check for $200 to The MacDella Cooper Foundation. Mail it to:

MCF US Office
101 West 55 Street
Suite 10F
New York, NY 10019
Phone: 212 204 6574

If you like, you can contact them and arrange to have your donation go to sending a specific child to school and you can identify with that child and get updates on their progress. The $200 that I gave last night is paying for Aloysius Johnson, Age 4, to continue at the Action Faith Institute in Monrovia. The children of Liberia need us to give them some hope. This, my friends, is the ultimate win-win situation. I guarantee you will feel good about doing this and, with all the financial stress that we’re feeling, me included, $200 is one less dinner out or one less latte over two months. MacDella Cooper, called “Liberia’s Angel” is making a difference in the world. You can to. Just do it!

Where I'll be:

Oct. 27-30: Miami Beach for the ULI Fall Meeting.
Oct. 30-Nov.2: Montreal
Nov. 3-7: New York
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum (there's a special "FOS" (Friends of Steve) discount available. Please contact me for details.
Nov. 18-19: Amsterdam for INREV's Investor Platform and Committee Meetings
Dec. 3-5: Sacremento, San Francisco & Los Angeles, CA
Dec. 8-12: London for meetings and especially to moderate a panel at the Reuters Real Estate Global Property Outlook 2009 on the 9th (Invitation only).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.

Thanks for reading my blog.
Many of you know that my life is built on people, on community, on collaboration and on sharing. This platform gives us all a chance to connect and reconnect. I am grateful for your support, suggestions and contributions. Thanks a lot.

Photo: NYC, 5pm, Friday, 10/24/08

Please Vote

The U.S. Presidential election on November 4 will be the most significant of my adult life. The world is watching us so hopefully there will be no election shenanigans this time around. I offer this piece from today's NY Times for your consideration First, let's make sure everyone gets out to vote.

"Does anybody really know what time it is?" This line from a song by the band 'Chicago' may simply describe what we're all experiencing these days. In conversations this week I have not been surprised that while business to some degree goes on as usual, the transaction business, buying and selling investment grade real estate has slowed to a snail's pace. And, while people who have gone through previous cycles think that the troubled assets (vs. loans) will start surfacing in early 2009, no one seems exactly certain. However, there definitely seems to be a movement towards getting ready for an expected deluge of troubled assets to become available. But, with the U.S. government's plan to prop up the banking system still not executed it seems somewhat uncertain as to how this whole thing will play out. Suffice it to say that there is money ready and smart, experienced opportunistic real estate players out there who can pull the trigger pretty quickly (p.s. this won't be hedge funds will it?)

Another interesting point is the amount of interest in Real Capital Analytics' (RCA) new Global Trends Report (GTR) but it's not surprising that institutional investors in more and more numbers are looking outside the U.S. to deploy their allocations. BTW, RCA is offering a free trial to their GTR on their website http://www.rcanalytics.com.


This is a photo of my friend and former bandmate, Professor Tom Davis. Thank you all who wrote to me with condolences about Tom; I really appreciated it. Tom was a professor of philosophy and religion at SUNY (State University of New York)'s Ulster County Campus (about 90 minutes north of Manhattan). He was loved and respected by his students, many of whom have said that Tom changed their lives. His sudden death has shocked the campus, his family and his friends (one of whom wrote me after Googling and finding this column). The band that Tom and I played in, "Everyone" is working on doing a concert at the school to raise money for the scholarship fund created in Tom's name. It's the least we can do to celebrate Tom's life.

At least two industry conferences have been cancelled between now and the end of the year. Clearly people are cutting back on expenses, travel included. The U.S. is in bad shape in general and something needs to happen to turn the tide. Hopefully, whoever our next President is will inspire the confidence needed for the population in general to keep the system going. But, it's not an easy task, nor a quick fix. And, just as I don't know what my house in Napa, CA is worth, valuations of assets is a roadblock to deals (assuming equity and debt exist, which I continue to believe they do albeit changed due to current underwriting standards). I'm told that the real estate derivatives market in the U.S. has heated up and that one of the major players had their best trading month in September.

So, whose crystal ball can predict where and when we'll hit bottom?

P.S. I've been writing pieces for PERE (Private Equity Real Estate). You can sign-up free for access to their stories on our industry.

P.P.S. If you find this blog worthwhile, please pass along this link where people can sign up to receive it. Thanks.


Where I'll be:

October 23: New York Athletic Club: The MacDella Cooper Foundation Gala to raise money to help needy children in Liberia.
Oct. 27-30: Miami Beach for the ULI Fall Meeting.
Oct. 30-Nov.2: Montreal
Nov. 3-7: New York
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum (there's a special "FOS" (Friends of Steve) discount available. Please contact me for details.
Nov. 18-19: Amsterdam for INREV's Investor Platform and Committee Meetings
Dec. 8-12: London for meetings and especially to moderate a panel at the Reuters Real Estate Global Property Outlook 2009 on the 9th (Invitation only).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.

Copyright Steve Felix 2008

show me the money

10 October 2008

“Show me the money” is Cuba Gooding’s mantra in the movie “Jerry McGuire.” But while big numbers are being thrown around by governments worldwide, trying to avoid a total meltdown (is las vegas taking odds on that?) there continues to be real losses accumulating in the real estate industry. So, it seems like now it the time to start pulling the trigger on distressed deals. But then again maybe not. If values continue to fall, then maybe waiting is smarter. That’s why the people making these investment decisions both get paid the big bucks and have sleepless nights. We are clearly in a meltdown and this one has nothing to do with global warming. Unlike the U.S. in the early 1990’s when we were watching to see what bank the RTC took over, today we’re waking up wondering what country is going to take things into their own hands, trying desperately to keep some semblance of confidence in their banking sector. These are and will continue to be trying times but for those who have only seen the real estate boom, it’s both sobering and instructional. For those of us that have been through at least one, and for me and some of my friends at least three real estate cycles, we know about uncertain times. But I don’t think that any of us really knows exactly what to expect today or next Monday. What is looking pretty certain is that cash will continue to be king and there will be buying opportunities where there is seller stress. I use the term stress rather than distress because many of the assets that will be bought (or refinanced privately) will be healthy assets caught in the wringer of the evaporation of the bountiful capital that existed. Maybe this year we in America will have a lot more to be thankful for at Thanksgiving than material things and hopefully one of them will be that America made the right choice to elect a president that can inspire us to a brighter future.


The fall season is beautiful in the northeast this year although a little warmer than ‘normal’ (whatever normal is anymore). my coordinates these days have me living part-time in an apartment in long beach, on the long island shore not far from JFK. Most mornings, I walk down the boardwalk, which even though is a couple of blocks out of the way, and can hear the sound of waves crashing on the shoreline. While sometimes I’m walking in the dark, the smell and sound are still fabulous. On the weekends, I take walks on the beach, looking for that one ultimate seashell to take back with me (haven’t found it yet) and watching the hundreds of surfers who are magnetically pulled to this beach. I’ve never surfed and am not sure I need to (haven’t skydived or downhilled skied either). But I’ve noticed the patience that is necessary in this part of the atlantic ocean as the one good wave may come only once in eight. One of the discoveries I’ve made in the few weeks I’ve been living there is that the beach club, silverpoint, where my family had a small cabana is still there. The gates have been closed but one day I’m going to drive in to see, if possibly, after all these year, anything recognizable remains. I have photos and movies that have been passed down to me showing the adults playing bridge and canasta; of the men playing softball in the sand; of birthday parties (mine is in july) and bbq’s and people looking very happy. My grandfather taught me how to swim there, in the ocean (as a young man he was a lifeguard who once saved someone from drowning) and I also learned to play baseball there from my father and my uncles, all who were fairly good athletes. Things were so much simpler then. My father use to let me and my brother sit on his lap and steer the car as we left the parking lot for home after a long weekend day at the beach. Where I grew up, in forest hills, ny, is also on my list to visit, probably next weekend. I was there about five years ago and the buildings are pretty much the same, I think just the makeup of the people has changed. We can never go back, except to visit, but, sometimes in a quiet time, I think of those days, reminded recently by a facebook website group of my former junior high school where people were testing each others’ memories of teachers. I think about how lucky I was to grow up until age 15 in new york and then move to the suburbs in new jersey which while only 22 miles west of midtown manhattan could have been somewhere in the heartland as it’s become to be referred to. And, as I write this, early on Friday morning, knowing that tonight I will be playing the piano at my former band mate tom davis’ memorial service, I stop, just for a moment, because that’s all it takes, and smile and know that even with what is going on in the global financial world, and no matter how much my investments have dropped in the past months (btw, more than 20%) I have my health; I have a loving wife and children who are happy and healthy and doing things that they love. When things get tough, sometimes we get more sentimental; I used to be that way too. But in the last few years, I have become more and more grateful, every day of the joy of life and my good fortune to have had a chance to do and see so many things and meet so many people and…..well, I could go on and on but one of my friends who reads this column has suggested that I try to keep it shorter (it’s a little shorter paul) and so i’ll end with this:

“Your best shot at happiness, self-worth and personal satisfaction-the things that constitute real success-is not in earning as much as you can but in performing as well as you can something that you consider worthwhile.”
William Raspberry


Where I’ll Be:

Week of October 13: New York
Week of October 20: New York
October 23: New York Athletic Club: The MacDella Cooper Foundation Gala to raise money to help needy children in Liberia
October 27-30: Miami Beach for the ULI Fall Meeting.
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum.
Dec. 8-12: London for meetings and especially to moderate a panel at the Reuters Real Estate Global Property Outlook 2009 on the 9th (Invitation only).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.

PREA and Tom Davis

i attended the PREA annual plan sponsor conference in chicago this week. 850 attendees but the ratio of managers/others to pension funds was reported to be 10:1. an example of why this event has grown in size each year is evidenced in two people i met who are real estate operators from different parts of the U.S. who have either self-funded or have done small syndications over the years. in sarah palin speak, "how do i get some of that there pension fund money, katie?" is the reason. but it's not that easy. anyway, on a personal level, the timing couldn't have been better as i was able to hand out my new AVIVA Investors business cards and tell people about my new gig. also, as the press release about my new job hit the trade publications and websites as well, many people congratulated me on my 'next life.' it's great to see so many industry friends and acquaintances and it was a wonderful feeling to get so many people telling me how they felt that this was such a perfect use of who i know and what i know. i used up all my business cards!

here are some of the things i heard at the PREA conference:

1. liquidity is on the minds of almost all institutional investors.
2. funny how quickly open-end funds turned from having a queue to get in to a queue to get out.
3. some institutions are increasing their allocation to real estate to take advantage of dislocation or distress opportunities.
4. is there liquidity in other asset classes vs. real estate?

one keynote was delivered by frederic mishkin, an American economist and academic at the Columbia Business School. He was also a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 to 2008.

1. i'm as scared as i've ever been in my life about the economic situation.
2. sub-prime losses will be more than $1 trillion.
3. what caused this?
a. financial innovation
b. asset price bubble
c. deterioration of balance sheets of financial institutions
4. if you 'nail the S.O.B.'s on wall street you may do harm to the economy in general.
5. a "let's get those rich bastards" attitude will destroy the economy.
6. restoring confidence is everything in solving the financial crisis.
7. if we really screw this up, like the japanese did, it'll take 10 years to recover.
8. medicare needs trillions to fix it; $700BB? that's chump change.

some stuff from a one panel:
a. i don't see a commercial real estate depression like the early 1990's.
b. opportunistic investors will be compensated for separating the 'good' bonds and loans from the 'bad' ones.
c. the transfer of assets will be of biblical proportion.
d. going down to the lower levels of the capital structure you can buy at distressed prices where there is no distress.
e. it's likely that a whole number of hedge funds will close up by 12/31/08.

and another panel:
1. global recession is a reality.
2. the downturn will last 16 months.
3. we are going to see the opportunities of a generation.
4. i don't want to be the last man standing.
5. not only is the sky falling, it's gone lower than the earth's crust.
6. 16 of the 20 headlines in the wall street journal could have been the headline of your career.
7. panic is not necessarily wrong when it comes to making investing decisions.
8. we see great opportunity in distressed residential mortgages.
9. that we can talk about whether GE will survive is almost unfathomable.
10. this is a generational change in america.

while i was at the conference i got the news that tom davis had died. tom was the bass player in the most significant band i played in, called "everyone." tom was a professor of philosophy and religion at a college in new york state. he had fallen a few days earlier and cracked his head open. the doctors thought he would survive although never teach again. he died of a stroke without every regaining consciousness. the last time i saw tom was in the summer of 2001 when our band played a reunion gig to commemorate the most successful and crazy summer in our lives in 1971. tom was the gentlest soul i've ever known. he had a sweet voice but could also really rock, like when he sang steppenwolf's 'born to be wild.' we were all fairly innocent when we got together in 1968 but during those ensuing crazy days we all grew and experienced all the things that you would imagine a popular rock and roll band (albeit on a local level) might get the chance to see and do. i went on the website of tom's college, searching for something about him and found a place where students can rate and comment on their teachers. i offer a few of those comments about tom davis:

-Besides being helpful, kind, and understanding he MAKES you want to come to school.
-Tom Davis has inspired so many students to go deeper than they ever thought they would or could into philosophy and themselves; the comments he writes on your papers make it feel like a conversation he's having with you about your ideas; he's awesome, and for someone over 40, he's cute as ever! Ask to see the pics of him in his band when 20ish!
-He is the best professor you will ever encounter. He encouraged me to want to learn. He is dedicated to make sure that all of his students do well. He is an inspiration to me.
-An inspired and inspiring man. Zany, insightful, intelligent, interesting and benevolent. One of the best.
-he's just funny and smart and insane and entertaining and marvelous. he's somethin', that's for sure. :) he loves to jump down the rabbit holes. he doesn't ever make a student feel like their views are insignificant, he considers all points. at times i didn't know what he was talking about, but i never felt alienated.
-he seems like one of the few teachers that cares about teaching. Great guy.
-One of the most benign, charasmatic intellectuals I have ever met. He just happens to be the GREATEST professor I have ever had!!! I never learned so much as I did from him.
-he is great, very concerned with how every individual is doing within the class, he is also crazy and loved to dash around the room acting things out
-He is involved, unbiased, genuine-a phenomenal human being who should be providing seminars for teachers.
-Tom Davis is one of the greatest professors I have ever had and he's probably the nicest person you could possibly meet.

remember, these were written before tom died. i can only imagine what his current and former students are writing and saying about him now. what do people say about you? what will they say about you when you're in the next dimension? when you think about it, we all can be teachers. we can give something of ourselves to those starting out in the business and all along the way. you can 'teach your children' as graham nash of crosby, stills and nash sang. there is nothing more powerful than taking the time to help someone else be what they want to and can be. i never got the chance to take a class with tom and i never got to say goodbye to him but it's obvious that he was a very special teacher and a special person to those who came in contact with him in his 'life after everyone.' he's the first of our band to go and now we'll never play together again. it's like puggy, our lead guitarist wrote me, "it was good to just know tom was around." there'll be a memorial service for tom next saturday; i'll be there and have been asked to play a couple of songs that were close to tom's heart, "while my guitar gently weeps" and "imagine". but i'm also going to surprise his partner debbie with an old blues song which tom used to "knock out of the park" called 'sporting life blues' written by sonny terry:

I'm getting tired of runnin' around,
Think I will marry and settle down
This ole night life,
This ole Sportin' Life, it's killin' me

I got a letter from my home,
All of my friends, they're dead an'gone
It'll make you worry,
It'll make you wonder, 'bout days to come

My mother used to talk to me,
I was young and foolish, and could not see
Now, I have no mother,
My sisters and brothers, they don't care for me

Mama used to fall on her knees an' pray,
These are the words, mother, she used to say
She would say: "Wha-oh,
My son, please change your way"

Now, I'm goin' to change my way,
I'm growin' older each and every day
When I was young and foolish,
It was so easy, to go out and play

I was a gambler, and a cheater too,
Now, it's come my turn to lose
This ole Sportin' Life,
Got the best hand, what can I do?

There ain't but one thing that I done wrong,
I liv'd that ole Sportin' Life too long
Friends, it's no good, please believe me,
Please leave it alone

I'm getting tired of running round,
Think I will marry, and settle down
This ole night life,

This ole Sportin' Life, its killing me

here's a great version by j.j. cale and eric clapton [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iebv1LZOInc&feature=related].

we lived the sportin' life together in that band. tom sang about it almost every night. now he's gone and all we can do is think about how the sportin' life affected us all. sometimes it's just a spot you race by in a fast moving train. but other times it's something that becomes a monkey on your back. there was not anyone that met tom davis that did not love him. we loved him. he was our brother. we miss knowing he's around. don't wait too long to see someone in your life who you miss. make plans right now. to wait may be too long.

part of growing up is dealing with reality and dealing with problems and learning how to solve them or let them solve themselves. the lessons we're learning as a society today (especially in america) are painful but keeping them in perspective, still not nearly as painful as those in the world who are dying from hunger or disease that can be prevented or in wars and skirmishes the underlying theme of which sometimes escapes reason. i don't know if we'll ever go back to when things were simpler but i for one am going to try to go forward by going back a little and appreciating the simple things in life; appreciating what i have rather than being jealous or unhappy over what i don't have. things can change in the blink of an eye. we never lose sight of that and let's live our lives accordingly.


Where will I be?

Oct. 6-8: London

Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel on "Asset Transformation Case Studies) at the fourth annual PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate). NOTE: PERE is offering a 15% discount for "Friends of Steve". If you want to take advantage of it just use this code (PERENY_Bridge) when you go to register on their site (http://www.peimedia.com/Product.aspx?cID=5496&pID=174808&contType=1).

December (date TBA): London to moderate a panel at a seminar hosted by Reuters Real Estate (http://www.reutersrealestate.com).

Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.

Aviva Investors

i'm excited to tell you that i've joined Aviva Investors Multi-Manager Real Estate team as Head of Marketing for North America. yes, it's a long title but it helps me to remember what i was hired to do. actually, my responsibilities will probably include being an ambassador for all real estate products offered by AVIVA Investors. today is the official day of my announcement. and it's also the official day of the announcement of the launch of the AVIVA Investors brand which is the only sub-business of AVIVA plc, the worlds fifth largest insurance company. AVIVA Investors has been formed by combining AVIVA Capital Management and Morley Fund Management. we have offices in London, New York and Singapore. Aviva Investors is one of the world’s largest real estate managers with $50 billion in assets under management, and is one of the largest real estate multi-managers with more than $10 billion under management, invested into indirect real estate strategies. i’m very excited to have this opportunity.

i really don't know what i can add to everything being written and talked about regarding the state of financial affairs in the u.s. today. suffice it to say that others much smarter and closer to the situation than i have said that unless the government steps in further our entire economy could crumble. hopefully, the final solution will be one that takes everyone into consideration. but, once things do settle down, and i have a feeling that it will be sooner rather than later, we can move forward, albeit at a slower and more careful pace but perhaps 'the bottom' will have arrived and things can only go up from there. we all need to keep our fingers crossed because as a friend of mine used to say, “we’re in deep doo-doo” right now.

Pete Seger, the legendary folk singer who turned 89 this year has released a new album. I read this today in the paper and it resonated with me so I wanted to pass it along to you:
"I hope the next revolution (after the current information-based one) will take the form of a 'willingness to communicate revolution.' It will involve becoming more generous, having a better sense of humor and talking to people we disagree with. And that must happen if there is going to be a human race here in the next century,'

from time to time i have thought about 'where time goes?' i guess that while i keep a very positive attitude on life and am convinced that i am going to live well past 100, there are moments when i wonder how it is that time can be passing so fast. perhaps it happens when i think about 'what have i contributed to the world?' and whether i'm just going through life, working to make a living, from time to time taking holidays and experiencing different people, cultures and geographies and that is something that is very important to me; i also know that there are more people, places and things in the world than i will have time or means to visit. but that won't stop me from trying but not trying in the sense of putting pressure on myself but rather just continue to stretch myself when i have the opportunity to expand my horizons. but that again is something that i do for myself but i don know that the experience of meeting people on their own turf and communicating with them also means something to them as well; i know it because i have talked about it with them. and, i've always believed, that the key to bringing our world closer together, while cross border investment and business deals are one component, and cultural exchanges are another, in my humble opinion, there is no substitute for people meeting people, one on one and talking. in this way we learn that we are all human beings and that the differences represented by our language or our habits, holidays or traditions are not the true essence of who we are as human beings. maybe i'm just a wishful thinker but i continue to believe that we can bring more peace and understanding to the world by taking advantage of any opportunity we have to contribute to our world's future.

but at times like these, when it seems like in so many ways and places, the stress, strain, pain, hatred and confrontation serve to separate us as people, both within and outside our respective countries it makes it more and more difficult to think of anything or anyone other than ourselves, our families and our and their own well-being. i too am feeling some strain of what is going on in the economy and financial world in the U.S. and perhaps some of what i'm going through is due to my believing that things would always continue to get better and for many years, for me, they did. i do feel that things will continue to get better for me and that the lessons learned are not the kind that are as damaging as they are with other U.S. citizens and others around the world who have made investment decisions which have caused them to lose some of their net worth. but i guess what i'm coming around to is that i've been thinking lately of what does someones' real 'net worth' consist of. it is only measured in terms of dollars and assets owned? i'd like to believe not. there's a phrase i read many years ago in a book whose name i cannot remember: "things worth being vs. things worth having." there is a big difference.

sunday’s new york times magazine section had a special advertising section dedicated to new york lawyers. but it wasn't just any lawyers (at least i don't think it was) it was 'superlawyers.' now, i may be wrong, but i thought all lawyers were superlawyers or at least they see themselves as superlawyers. and, as having good self-esteem is important in any profession, why shouldn't they? but what was interesting to me was the way those firms that decided to spend what may be a considerable portion of their annual marketing budget designed their ads. they run the gamut from anyone wear anything to all seven partners wearing the identical suit with only minor color changes in the tie. and everything in between. i don't know which of the firms i would choose from their photo or whether i'd just dismiss them one by one based on fashion statements and facial expressions. however, in addition to the 'ads' there was a directory which was listed by discipline. real estate, as you might imagine, has a lot of lawyers in new york. included in the listings (but not in the ads) were two friends, carl schwartz of herrick, feinstein and david rabinowitz of sutherland. these guys are big-time real estate attorneys and while you may see an ad of theirs from time to time in a real estate publication you won't see them in this superlawyer supplement, new york magazine or entertainment weekly (although, while i've never held one in my hand might be a place where entertainment or libel lawyers do advertise). "perception is reality" is a saying that i believe has a lot of truth to it and when someone runs an ad or a tv commercial where ones visage (the face of several colleagues) are out in the open i think you're taking a chance. is having photos in an ad any different than having photos of people on your website? not really but sort of. while websites should be both information and somewhat promotional they do have certain components of advertising. but ads are "in your face, buddy." whether they're in print, on tv or as a warm up to a movie played in your local theatre (which i think is an infringement of one of my constitutional rights, i just don't know which one). my suggestion: always put yourself in the others persons shoes; bounce ad ideas off people you know and trust (even if you've engaged an ad firm to create your ad). you know your industry better than anyone and they way you are perceived in your ad becomes the reality.


Where will I be?

Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference

Oct. 6-8: London

Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel on "Asset Transformation Case Studies) at the fourth annual PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate).

Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.