PERE Global Forum/Are we in the wrong business?/Solving the European financial crisis

I'm sending this out while I can.  I'm in Amsterdam and shortly will be off-line until Friday evening when I return to New York after a really long flight that takes me from Amsterdam to Moscow (10 your layover there) and then on to New York.  The price of the ticket when I booked it was really good but it's going to be a long 24+ hours. 

Some notes and quotes from this week's PERE Global Forum in Amsterdam:

1.  Today's market:  Overcast with frequent violent storms.

2.  There are many investment opportunities available today if you have equity; it's difficult to raise equity unless you have a significant track record or niche strategy; specialist managers are in vogue.

3.  In the past 90 days the world has come to a screeching halt.

4.  The denominator effect exists again as equities are down.

5.  Someone is going to create a better mousetrap.  You need a compelling story about why pension funds should invest with you.  Otherwise it's like shifting deck chairs on the Titanic.

6.  This is the most difficult period to predict in my 25 years as an economist because it's all about politics.

Hidden gem-Amsterdam:  In the same low-cost vein as my flight this week, I found a wonderful three room apartment literally a two minute walk to the PERE conference venue.  I'm pretty lucky with these type things and will probably continue to seek these accommodations out as some of the rates charged by some conference hotels are, well, in my opinion, just too much.  Here's my hidden gem of a place:  BoekEnzo.  If you contact them please send Joost my regards.

At the PERE Global Forum in Amsterdam this week, a good friend of mine came up and told me that he had woken up that morning with a thought about the financial crisis in Europe.  He feels it resembles an already tired marriage going sour and there are four options that can be pursued:

1.  Ignore it:  Didn't work; won't work.

2.  Let's muddle through it.

3.  Forgive them; here's a gift (i.e. bail Greece out); let's truly make up (i.e. what ever caused the rift won't happen again) although in the case of Europe it's all about politics and lack of trust.

4.  Break up the EU (Euro Currency Countries).

Sounds like there may be some common sense to this but since when do things that involve money and politics operate with common sense?

Here are some interesting numbers about the Private (not real estate) Equity world 

(Source:  Private Equity International).

1.  10 Weeks.  How long it took Vista Equity to raise $1.6Bn for it's fourth fund which included some LP friendly terms.

2.  $4.5Bn.  Amount of capital raised by Berkshire Partners for its' eighth fund.

3.  50% of LP's expected to increase their private equity allocations in the next year.

4.  $80Bn.  Amount of private equity deal volume in the first half of 2010.

5.  $130Bn.  Total private equity deal volume for the first half of 2011.

6.  $240Bn.  Estimate of total private equity deal volume for 2011.

7.  $14Bn.  Amount changing hands in the global secondaries (not real estate) market in the first half of 2011.

8.  22.5%.  CalSTRS return from their private equity portfolio for the 12 month period ending 6/30/11.

9.  $3.00.  Average amount a GP makes in management fees for every $1.00 of performance based carried interest.

Question: Are we all in the wrong business?!

I found this on the placemat at a restaurant in Amsterdam this week and thought you'd like it:  "The spirit of "ichigo ichie"-a Japanese phrase derived from the tea ceremony means, "Treasure every encounter, for it will never recur."

And this one which I saw on the wall in the New Jersey Transit waiting room at Pennsylvania Station in New York:  "Loud in the quiet night, warning me not to mistake a hill for a mountain."  Sometimes you find something like this at just the right time in your life don't you think?

Deep-thinking moment of the week:  World cultures don’t agree too often but I believe it’s safe to say that right now we all agree on one thing:  that nobody know what tomorrow will bring in any facet of our lives.

Other than being a a professional musician, I am a life-long real estate person.  I truly believe that the real estate business is not about buildings or cash flows or IRR’s: it’s about people.  And as our industry has become truly global, we have been able to do business with people in other parts of the world based on one simple word:  trust.  We have learned and continue to learn that we can trust each other and while trust takes time to develop it has to begin somewhere.  

I see our industry as ambassadors of building bridges between regions and cultures and in doings so, between people.  Coming together in forums like this week’s PERE Global Forum in Amsterdam gives us a chance to talk with and learn more about each other.  Representatives from many countries attended this event.  Some will become friends and people who end up doing business with each other.  But more than someone to do a deal with, we are all in this  together and from time to time we all need someone we can lean on.  Meeting someone and exchanging a handshake and a business card is just the beginning.  To connect with each other takes some effort.  The one area I’ve observed that could use some more effort is in the follow-up.  So, in the spirit of community and collaboration, I offer this challenge to you: within three days of attending a conference, write an email to everyone whose business card you collected and simply say, “Good meeting you at the XYZ Conference.  Looking forward to staying in touch.”  I don’t care how many cards you collected; this process doesn’t take long (I incorporate it with the entering of a persons’ contact information in my database.)  Of course, some of the connections will result in more substantive follow up communication about a deal that was discussed or a service being offered.  And that’s great.  But at a minimum, if we simply take that handshake, that exchange of business cards and that look into one anothers eyes just one step further we have contributed in a small way to bringing the world closer together.  And isn't that be a wonderful legacy to leave the next generation?

On the road:

September 26-28:  Colorado Springs to attend the first NAREIM Executive Officers Meeting hosted by their new CEO, and my good friend, Gunnar Branson.  

September 20-October 3:  Asheville, NC to see my newest grandson, Gavin, for the first time.

October 4-6:  Las Vegas to attend and be a panelist at CBRE's Americas Summit.

October 17-19:  Chicago to attend the PREA conference

November 1-4:  Washington, DC to attend the CRE Annual Convention

November 9-10:  New York to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum

These are my views and not that of my employer.

"You may be walking around lucky and not even know it."

There are very few 'life-changing' moments that I can remember experiencing but this past week I had one.  It came in the unexpected form of a meeting I had with someone I had never met before.  And, as our conversation evolved, it was pretty clear that we had connected at some level, finding that some of our beliefs, about people, about business and other things had similarities.  But 3/4 of the way through our meeting, he told me something he had observed about me, in a very constructive way.  I sat silent and motionless for a few seconds, digested what he had said, and then simply said, "You're absolutely right.  That's a very helpful observation.  I can't thank you enough."  What he told me isn't really important (except to me :-)  What is important is that once in a blue moon, you meet someone who shows interest in you, as a person.  Whether this fellow and I ever end up doing business together doesn't matter.  What matters is that he and I connected as people.  I had the tables turned on me for the first time in I can't even remember how many years as he wanted to help me!  It was huge and I woke up the next morning feeling different about myself....in a positive way.  There's a line in one of my favorite movies, "Let it Ride", when Richard Dreyfuss is having, in his words, "a good day" (which was not usual for him), and he walks up to a waitress he knows at a food stand in the race track; they banter a little as he orders a hot dog; and then with a very piercing but kind stare she turns around, points a 'magical' finger at him, and says, "You may be walking around lucky and not even know it."  In his case it was about betting on horses.  In my case, it's about changing my life.  


Too many of the conversations I had this week end up with the same theme:  "What the heck is going on in the world?"  And, because most of the conversations I have, at least during working hours, are about real estate that translates to "Where are we heading?"  Well, as I think we all know, but may be reluctant to admit, we're either stalled or slipping backwards.  In a preview of their August "Month in Review", which will be published next week, RCA has moderately lowered their 2011 transaction volume projections.  An email I got from RCA Editorial Director, Peter Slatin states, "The slowing likely reflects greater unease about the broader economy as well as the recent pullback in CMBS originations and tighter credit availability from other lenders as well." 


I totally agree.  But I believe, in general, that it's simply a feeling of total uncertainty about so many things that have put people into a funk.  The answer simply is:  We just don't know.  We no more know what's going happen tomorrow than we know what will happen in a month, six months, a year, five years.  All we are pretty sure about is what we know that happened yesterday. And what we can do, while the world is, hopefully, sorting itself out is to focus on those things that we can change and make a positive impact on.  While these are the kinds of times that try mens' souls, these are also the times when we learn more about who we really are.  And, to me anyway, there is nothing more important than being true to yourself.




Update:  The Nick Tyrell Memorial Seminar.  October 12, 2011.
You can register here (it's free to attend) and I'll send you a link next week about how to donate to the fund set up in Nick's name.  The program for the day looks great with presentations by a number of the leading industry thinkers.  My colleague, John Gellatly, and Paul McNamara will deliver the eulogy.  If you can, please attend.



Congratulations to my friend, Jeff Fisher, who was appointed by both ARGUS and RCA to the position of Senior Global Consultant strengthening and further aligning the partnership of the two companies.


Memorable Experience of the Week:  Kitchak Cellers, Napa, CA.  Many months ago, I met a couple while having dinner by myself at the bar in a Napa bistro.  They offered me a taste of the wine they had brought with them.  It was delicious.  I learned that it was wine that they make themselves.  But in another amazingly small world encounter, Peter Kitchak is a career commercial real estate consultant.  So, with that as the backdrop, last weekend, after months of back and forth about trying to schedule a day for us to stop by their place, we finally made.  Not having gone on their website beforehand, I truly had no idea what to expect.  But if you go on their website, you will have an idea and what you see there truly exists and is even more special in person.  Kitchak is a private winery with tastings by appointment only.  They have a wine club with a significant membership and Patricia and Peter Kitchak are very nice, interesting and passionate people.  If you are serious about wine I encourage you to contact them next time you are in the Napa area.  But, if that may be a while out, I can, without reservation (no pun intended) highly recommend their wine which you can get via their wine club.





On the Road:


September 21-22: Amsterdam to attend and moderate a panel at the PERE Global Forum.
September 26-28:  Colorado Springs to attend the NAREIM Executive Officers Meeting.
September 30-October 3:  Asheville, NC to visit see my newest grandson for the first time.
October 4-6:  Las Vegas to attend and be a panelist at CBRE's Americas Summit.
October 17-19:  Chicago to attend the PREA conference.
November 1-4:  Washington, DC to attend the CRE Annual Convention
November 9-10:  New York to attend and moderate a panel at the PERE Forum
November 17-18:  Frankfurt to attend and moderate a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Good Ole Days, Nick Tyrell, Dreams and ice cream

Matt Slepin and his colleagues at Terra Search Partners publish a regular piece called Viewpoints.  Yesterday their most recent issue hit my mailbox.   I thought you'd find this section particularly interesting.


"At the beginning of this year, it felt like we were exiting the darkness of the recession. There seemed to be a light at the end of the tunnel, a glimpse that maybe we would indeed return, although cautiously, to the realm of the Good Ole Days. CMBS 2.0 was gaining momentum, investment sales volume seemed to be returning, and indeed our search business felt back on a roll. But the second quarter brought us back down to reality as employment remained flat, CMBS 2.0 fell apart, and the ripples of the failed debt reduction talks, the S&P downgrade, and the parallel dysfunctions in Europe sunk in. Now it feels as though the first quarter was the effect of pent-up demand and the settling into the New Normal versus a return to the Good Ole Days.  Real estate in the US is saying crazy, contradictory things. Multifamily is the one sector with largely positive long term drivers. The other sectors all seem more affected by secular changes – technology, globalization, and corporate efficiencies all have deep and obvious impact on the other major real estate “food groups.” Hospitality is, as always, more volatile and the bottom in the residential sector sadly still seems to be several years out."


Special Event:  The Nick Tyrrell Memorial Seminar : Applying Research Insights to Real Estate Investment Management: 


Nick was a friend of mine as he was of many in the industry.  This looks like a great program with some of the leading Research/Investment Strategists in the industry in attendance.  Unfortunately, I will only be able to attend in spirit.  The seminar will be used to raise money for the Nick Tyrrell Memorial Fund, which will present awards to papers that combine academic discipline with practical insights for the real estate profession. The event is being hosted by JPMorgan Asset Management, Nick's last employer and is being held on October 12 at 4pm to 8pm at Victoria Embankment, London.  I will include more details as I get them.


This quote, sent to me yesterday by a good friend, really hits home:  "We live in a moment of history where change is so speeded up that we begin to see the present only when it is already disappearing." Ronnie Laing


I don't dream all that often.  I've been trying to corollate my dreaming being associated with when I eat ice cream just before going to bed...but I'm going to have to keep testing that thesis!  But early this morning I woke up from a dream and just couldn't go back to sleep.  I dreamed about getting up and calling my father.  Just to see how he was doing.  The problem is that he died in November 2009.  I guess in my dream he was still reachable by phone.  But, I remember what one of you guys wrote me when I was spending a lot of time with my Dad in his final months:  you can talk with him anytime you want.  I remembered that just now and decided to close my eyes and have a chat with him.  He really didn't want to talk much about how he's doing and what type of things he's involved with...perhaps he's not allowed to divulge that kind of stuff.  But he did listen to what was on my mind and these days there are a few things that should be keeping me up at night.  It's been a good early morning for me, simply the ability to reach out to my Dad and also to write about this to you.  Actually, the more I think about it, I'm pretty sure the dreaming is due to ice cream but maybe it's only specific flavors.  More research is definitely in order.


Enjoy your weekend.


Steve


P.S.  My cousin, Jeff Smiley, went to the Air Force Academy and flew B-52's in Vietnam.  More than 20 years ago, at age 41, he died of some type of leukemia.  After the funeral ceremony, attended by hundreds of people whose lives he had touched, I went back to his house and found the following poem, framed and hung on a wall.  My old classmate, Peggy Noonan, drew from this for President Regan's speech after the Challenger disaster.  Even though  it's been adopted as a mantra by pilots, I thought it also had meaning for those who had innocently boarded those airplanes on September 11, 2001.  I offer it to you in honor of their memory. 

High Flight

Oh! I have slipped the surly bonds of earth
And danced the skies on laughter-silvered wings;
Sunward I've climbed, and joined the tumbling mirth
Of sun-split clouds - and done a hundred things
You have not dreamed of - wheeled and soared and swung
High in the sunlit silence. Hov'ring there
I've chased the shouting wind along, and flung
My eager craft through footless halls of air.
Up, up the long delirious, burning blue,
I've topped the windswept heights with easy grace
Where never lark, or even eagle flew -
And, while with silent lifting mind I've trod
The high untresspassed sanctity of space,
Put out my hand and touched the face of God.


Pilot Officer Gillespie Magee
No 412 squadron, RCAF
Killed 11 December 1941





On the Road:


September 11-16:  New York (Yes, I am flying to New York from San Francisco on Sept. 11)
September 20-21:  Amsterdam to moderate a panel at the PERE Global Forum
September 26-28:  Colorado Springs to attend the NAREIM Executive Officers Meeting
October 4-6:  Las Vegas to be a panelist at CBRE’s Americas Summit on “The Commercial Real Estate Industry of the Future: A 5-10 Year Outlook.”
October 17-19:  Chicago to attend the PREA fall meeting
November 1-4: Washington, DC to attend the CRE Annual convention
November 9-10: New York to moderate a panel at the PERE  Forum-North America
November 17-18:  Frankfurt to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe

Congratulations to my friend, Peter Lewis, who has just joined the consulting firm Towers Watson as head of their U.S. consulting business.

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Labor Day 2011

So, the big news this week was the announcement that The Townsend Group had sold a 70% interest in their firm to a start-up private equity group.  Congrats to Townsend on what appears to be an excellent deal.  Also good to read was that the remaining 30% still to be controlled by Townsend has been divided amongst a number of their current 'internal' partners.  A classy move I'd say as there have been too many of these type deals, not necessarily in our industry, where a few people get really rich and the rest of the employees basically suck wind.  I guess one thing that crosses my mind in reading the news is whether Townsend will continue to focus on growing their investment management business vs. their advisory business and how their advisory clients are going to react (if at all) to this deal.  I guess, there's a lot more buzz amongst the consulting community who may be licking their chops feeling that Townsend's advisory client list is ripe for picking off.  It could be an interesting story unfolding right before our eyes.


Well, the summer is over...can it possibly be?  But, I see it in some ways as a time of renewal, or perhaps renewed energy.  In some ways Europe basically shuts down as people are off on their holidays and it's difficult to either get to someone or get an answer on something.  In the U.S., from where I sit, it was a confusing summer and perhaps we all should have taken the summer off as well.  But with the crisp mornings and clear skies (at least in Napa) it's energizing.  Those who are looking for new jobs are hoping that the fall brings with it more clarity; those that are looking to raise capital hope that the uncertainty that has constrained some institutional investors from making commitments, is over completely, that it's understood or accepted enough to allow them to move forward; those of us who attend fall conferences are finalizing our travel schedules and those who need to be 'on the road' to get their job done are looking at how to arrange everything they want to accomplish without going nuts.  There's a lot going on!

I guess that by next week virtually all public school systems in the U.S.  will be back in session.  I remember those years, going shopping for school supplies which included loose leaf binders, dividers, pencil cases (I know, sounds nerdy but we all had them), book straps (dangerous elastic things that allowed us to carry a number of textbooks to and from school; book bags have made that easier).  It all sounds antique now.  But other than during the years that I went to summer camp and the end of the summer (for those of us teenagers and older) meant teary good-byes, I don't remember ever feeling bad about going back to school.  In fact, I wouldn't mind going back now but perhaps as a teacher (although aren't we always students?  A friend recently told me, "When a student is ready, a teacher will appear").  I've approached my local community college about teaching some classes on improving presentation skills (aka how to live without PowerPoint slides), networking skills and managing a contact database, public speaking skills, you get the idea.  I don't think too much of this is actually taught these days although I do know that some schools do offer interview skills classes.  Anyway, I wrote to the President of the school this week and I'll let you know if anything transpires.

My life is people.  I love learning about people, not just what they do but who they are, where they grew up, went to high school, etc.  .  And what's great is that people love sharing stuff about themselves; all you have to do is ask them. It really brings us closer together.  When I was running an RTC contractor office and had hired 55 people in short order to work out hundreds of troubled loans and assets, I started a Friday morning "Bagels and..." session.  At these, each week, three people would tell the group about themselves; stuff we might not know and also about their background in the real estate industry and skills they'd developed.  Not only did we learn more about each other as people we also learned who had specialized experience in this, that or the other thing so that when something came up regarding one of our assets, we knew who the 'go-to' person was.  It's the true value-add.   Do you know who in your shop knows more than they may be asked to do on a day-to-day basis?  It might be interesting finding out, don't you think?

"Labor Day, the first Monday in September, is a creation of the labor movement and is dedicated to the social and economic achievements of American workers. It constitutes a yearly national tribute to the contributions workers have made to the strength, prosperity, and well-being of our country. The first Labor Day holiday was celebrated on Tuesday, September 5, 1882, in New York City.  The form that the observance and celebration of Labor Day should take were outlined in the first proposal of the holiday — a street parade to exhibit to the public "the strength and esprit de corps of the trade and labor organizations" of the community, followed by a festival for the recreation and amusement of the workers and their families. The vital force of labor added materially to the highest standard of living and the greatest production the world has ever known and has brought us closer to the realization of our traditional ideals of economic and political democracy. It is appropriate, therefore, that the nation pay tribute on Labor Day to the creator of so much of the nation's strength, freedom, and leadership — the American worker."

The preceding is from the U.S. Government website.  It seems a little self-serving, perhaps typically American.  Another way to look at it might be simply that it's time to give each other a little pat on the back because, when you come down to it, all of us who work for a living are connected. Perhaps it's time to revisit the definition of Labor Day and use it as a way to bring America together again.


On the Road:

September 11-16:  New York
September 20-21:  Amsterdam to moderate a panel at the PERE Global Forum
September 26-28:  Colorado Springs to attend the NAREIM Executive Officers Meeting
October 4-6:  Las Vegas to be a panelist at CBRE’s Americas Summit on “The Commercial Real Estate Industry of the Future: A 5-10 Year Outlook.”
October 17-19:  Chicago to attend the PREA fall meeting
November 1-4: Washington, DC to attend the CRE Annual convention
November 9-10: New York to moderate a panel at the PERE  Forum-North America
November 17-18:  Frankfurt to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe


Congratulations to my friend Wietse de Vries who has joined Almazara Real Assets Advisory as a partner. The firm advises pension funds, insurers and other institutional investors on their investments in real estate and infrastructure.


These are my views and not that of my employer.

Labor Day 2011

So, the big news this week was the announcement that The Townsend Group had sold a 70% interest in their firm to a start-up private equity group.  Congrats to Townsend on what appears to be an excellent deal.  Also good to read was that the remaining 30% still to be controlled by Townsend has been divided amongst a number of their current 'internal' partners.  A classy move I'd say as there have been too many of these type deals, not necessarily in our industry, where a few people get really rich and the rest of the employees basically suck wind.  I guess one thing that crosses my mind in reading the news is whether Townsend will continue to focus on growing their investment management business vs. their advisory business and how their advisory clients are going to react (if at all) to this deal.  I guess, there's a lot more buzz amongst the consulting community who may be licking their chops feeling that Townsend's advisory client list is ripe for picking off.  It could be an interesting story unfolding right before our eyes.


Well, the summer is over...can it possibly be?  But, I see it in some ways as a time of renewal, or perhaps renewed energy.  In some ways Europe basically shuts down as people are off on their holidays and it's difficult to either get to someone or get an answer on something.  In the U.S., from where I sit, it was a confusing summer and perhaps we all should have taken the summer off as well.  But with the crisp mornings and clear skies (at least in Napa) it's energizing.  Those who are looking for new jobs are hoping that the fall brings with it more clarity; those that are looking to raise capital hope that the uncertainty that has constrained some institutional investors from making commitments, is over completely, that it's understood or accepted enough to allow them to move forward; those of us who attend fall conferences are finalizing our travel schedules and those who need to be 'on the road' to get their job done are looking at how to arrange everything they want to accomplish without going nuts.  There's a lot going on!

I guess that by next week virtually all public school systems in the U.S.  will be back in session.  I remember those years, going shopping for school supplies which included loose leaf binders, dividers, pencil cases (I know, sounds nerdy but we all had them), book straps (dangerous elastic things that allowed us to carry a number of textbooks to and from school; book bags have made that easier).  It all sounds antique now.  But other than during the years that I went to summer camp and the end of the summer (for those of us teenagers and older) meant teary good-byes, I don't remember ever feeling bad about going back to school.  In fact, I wouldn't mind going back now but perhaps as a teacher (although aren't we always students?  A friend recently told me, "When a student is ready, a teacher will appear").  I've approached my local community college about teaching some classes on improving presentation skills (aka how to live without PowerPoint slides), networking skills and managing a contact database, public speaking skills, you get the idea.  I don't think too much of this is actually taught these days although I do know that some schools do offer interview skills classes.  Anyway, I wrote to the President of the school this week and I'll let you know if anything transpires.

My life is people.  I love learning about people, not just what they do but who they are, where they grew up, went to high school, etc.  .  And what's great is that people love sharing stuff about themselves; all you have to do is ask them. It really brings us closer together.  When I was running an RTC contractor office and had hired 55 people in short order to work out hundreds of troubled loans and assets, I started a Friday morning "Bagels and..." session.  At these, each week, three people would tell the group about themselves; stuff we might not know and also about their background in the real estate industry and skills they'd developed.  Not only did we learn more about each other as people we also learned who had specialized experience in this, that or the other thing so that when something came up regarding one of our assets, we knew who the 'go-to' person was.  It's the true value-add.   Do you know who in your shop knows more than they may be asked to do on a day-to-day basis?  It might be interesting finding out, don't you think?

"Labor Day, the first Monday in September, is a creation of the labor movement and is dedicated to the social and economic achievements of American workers. It constitutes a yearly national tribute to the contributions workers have made to the strength, prosperity, and well-being of our country. The first Labor Day holiday was celebrated on Tuesday, September 5, 1882, in New York City.  The form that the observance and celebration of Labor Day should take were outlined in the first proposal of the holiday — a street parade to exhibit to the public "the strength and esprit de corps of the trade and labor organizations" of the community, followed by a festival for the recreation and amusement of the workers and their families. The vital force of labor added materially to the highest standard of living and the greatest production the world has ever known and has brought us closer to the realization of our traditional ideals of economic and political democracy. It is appropriate, therefore, that the nation pay tribute on Labor Day to the creator of so much of the nation's strength, freedom, and leadership — the American worker."  

The preceding is from the U.S. Government website.  It seems a little self-serving, perhaps typically American.  Another way to look at it might be simply that it's time to give each other a little pat on the back because, when you come down to it, all of us who work for a living are connected. Perhaps it's time to revisit the definition of Labor Day and use it as a way to bring America together again.


On the Road:

September 11-16:  New York
September 20-21:  Amsterdam to moderate a panel at the PERE Global Forum
September 26-28:  Colorado Springs to attend the NAREIM Executive Officers Meeting
October 4-6:  Las Vegas to be a panelist at CBRE’s Americas Summit on “The Commercial Real Estate Industry of the Future: A 5-10 Year Outlook.”
October 17-19:  Chicago to attend the PREA fall meeting
November 1-4: Washington, DC to attend the CRE Annual convention
November 9-10: New York to moderate a panel at the PERE  Forum-North America
November 17-18:  Frankfurt to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe


Congratulations to my friend Wietse de Vries who has joined Almazara Real Assets Advisory as a partner. The firm advises pension funds, insurers and other institutional investors on their investments in real estate and infrastructure.

Congratulations to my son, Brian and his wife, Bridget on the birth of their second son, Gavin who is being kissed by his older brother Sean.  A very sweet picture!

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Are you getting OTR into your inbox?

Hi.  Two people wrote me to say they wondered if I had stopped publishing as they hadn't heard from me in the past two weeks.

Could you please reply and let me know 'yes' or 'no' if you've received OTR the past two weeks?

Thanks a lot.
Steve

Deal slowdown, Prequin survey, Alzheimer appeal, Steve Jobs, Gavin Muldoon Felix

With so much tumult in the world these days is it any wonder that commercial real estate transactions are slowing....again?  

RCA reported this week:  Sales of significant commercial property totaled $13.0b in July, roughly the monthly average for the first five months this year, excluding the stand-out June volume. Nevertheless, on a year-over-year basis, the 16% increase in transactions is the lowest recorded since growth turned positive in December 2009, likely reflecting the greater economic turbulence and pullback in CMBS conduit originations that have emerged this summer. The tempering of activity was widespread.  

Also, I found some of the published results of Prequin’s 2Q11 Quarterly pretty interesting and offer them to you here:

1. Survey of Investment Consultants
1. more than ⅔ of respondents believe that North America will present the best investment opportunities over the coming 12 months.
2. Half of respondents believe that Asia, with it’s developing markets, will offer attractive opportunities in the next year, while around one third believe Europe and South America present good prospects.
3. Asked to rank fund types on a scale of 1-5 (5 being the most attractive):
1. Opportunistic: 3.7
2. Distressed private real estate: 3.6
3. Value add real estate: 3.6
4. Core-plus: 3.0
5. Core: 2.6
4. Key-est issue right now?  Valuation of investments
2. Fund of Funds
1. fundraising remains a challenging prospect
2. fewer funds being launched
1. targeting less capital
1. amount of capital raised has fallen dramatically
3. Strategy demand of investors?
1. core, debt and distressed strategies
4. Accessing top-tier funds and global diversification not as compelling as in previous years
1. investor appetite for fund of funds has declined
1. number of new investors investing in real estate for the first time via fund of funds has declined

Appeal to help to end Alzheimer’s Disease:
The other day, just after getting off a call with a long-time friend who told me his mother is suffering from Alzheimer’s Disease, I received an email from a very good (and generous) industry friend telling me that her sister and a friend are raising money for the nation’s largest “walk”sponsored by The Alzheimer’s Association to raise awareness and supply funds for Alzheimer care, support and research to take place on October 22, 2011.  I have made a donation and hope you can find it in your heart to donate as well.  I believe that there are not too many of us do not know someone who has this really crummy disease.  Please follow this link .  Every little bit helps.  Thanks a lot.

We are living in a world that has a lot on its’ mind.  Perhaps too much.  And, because of the proliferation of irresponsible media, there are things that should not get ‘air time’ that do.  Why are reality shows so popular?  I believe that, like sports, they are an escape from reality and perhaps they are truly what entertainment is supposed to be....a way for us to detach from the day to day things we have to deal with and transport ourselves into ‘their’ world for 23 minutes.  But I am worried about us as a society.  I am really worried about the world that my grandchildren will inherit.  Will we leave it better than we found it?  I am worried that we won’t.

I just learned that John Ingram died in July.  John had been, for many years, the real estate guy at Marshall's Department Stores.  He also was the Chairman of the ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centers).  John and I got to know each other, not through deals that we made, but through the ICSC.  John was a good man.  He had integrity and a big grin.  He was a class act and a guy who exemplified a real professional.

With Steve Jobs stepping down this week as CEO of Apple there were a number of articles and blog postings , some sounding like obituaries.  I’ve been using a Mac since 1998 and while not a Maciac, I’m glad I made the switch from PC.  I’ve pulled a couple of lines from one of the postings that  I think are particularly  poignant: “He said we will carry our music in one place, and we did. He said we will download our entertainment, and we did...Steve Jobs hasn't merely created technology for us. He has created the way we interact with it, and in so doing he's recreated the way we live.   We've evolved because of Steve Jobs. We see technology the way he sees it, and that's because he, like almost no one else, has always had a unique ability to see the world as we see it.” This guy has changed our world. How many people, in all of history, can we say that about?

Serious sushi of last week:  My ‘special’ sushi place in New York for more than 20 years has been Sushi Zen on 44th Street just west of Sixth Avenue.  And, while other sushi fans have invited me to ‘their special place’ it wasn’t until last week that I ate at a serious contender:  Sushi Yasuda, 204 E. 43rd Street, New York.  (P.S.  If you decide to try it out please invite me :-)

Welcome to the world:  Gavin Muldoon Felix; August 25; 7am; 8.9 lbs; 22 inches!

On the Road:

August 29-September 9:  Northern California
September 11-16:  New York
September 20-21:  Amsterdam to moderate a panel at the PERE Global Forum
September 26-28:  Colorado Springs to attend the NAREIM Executive Officers Meeting
October 4-6:  Las Vegas to be a panelist at CBRE’s Americas Summit on “The Commercial Real Estate Industry of the Future: A 5-10 Year Outlook.”
October 17-19:  Chicago to attend the PREA fall meeting
November 1-4: Washington, DC to attend the CRE Annual convention
November 9-10: New York to moderate a panel at the PERE  Forum-North America
November 17-18:  Frankfurt to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe


Congratulations to my good friend Gunnar Branson on being named President/CEO of NAREIM (National Association of Real Estate Investment Managers).





These are my views and not that of my employer.