The Day After

In the U.S., today is the day after Thanksgiving.  Some people refer to it as "Black Friday."  (Black Friday is the day following Thanksgiving Day in the United States, traditionally the beginning of the Christmas shopping season. The day's name originated in Philadelphia, where it originally was used to describe the heavy and disruptive pedestrian and vehicle traffic which would occur on the day after Thanksgiving. Use of the term began by 1966 and began to see broader use outside Philadelphia around 1975. Later an alternative explanation began to be offered: that "Black Friday" indicates the period during which retailers are turning a profit, or "in the black.").  I never knew that we had Philadelphia to thank, not only for those great pretzels, but also for this!  


But, can you imagine being in Phnom Pehn, Cambodia the day after this weeks horrible tragedy on the bridge there?   A celebration turned into a crush of death?  There's a song that has the line, "There'll always be a morning after."  But there's not always one.  Will we make it thorough today without someone being crushed to death like happened two years ago ("Customers trampled a Wal-Mart employee to death on Black Friday.  The incident occurred as the shoppers crammed into the store when the doors opened at 5 a.m. Some 2,000 shoppers were waiting to get inside the store for Black Friday sales.  Other workers were trampled as they tried to rescue the man, and customers stepped over him and became irate when officials said the store was closing because of the death, police and witnesses said.

A person who witnessed the stampede, said shoppers were acting like "savages...When they were saying they had to leave, that an employee got killed, people were yelling 'I've been on line since yesterday morning.' They kept shopping."  


I don't watch TV much but I'm sure there were news teams camped out, not only at that specific Wal-Mart but other stores around the country....looking for a story (Note:  Some of the stores in my town opened at 4am today).  


Our world has seen other deaths in crushes of people at things like sporting events and rock concerts.  Only one time did I witness anything like this personally.  It was at a Pearl Jam concert.  An outdoor venue (no seats).  My son and I chose to stand pretty far back, with a fence at our backs so that we at least had that buffer between ourselves and the crowd behind us.  At some point, lead singer, Eddie Vedder walked to the side of the stage and looked down.  We were pretty far back so only saw some shuffling around where he was pointing.  But he stopped the show and started talking, "Hey, don't push those people.  Give them some room.  You're crushing them.  Give them some air.  We are not going to start playing again until you guys back off.  People, if someone dies here tonight, we'll never perform again."  


What have we become?  Where is our consideration for one another?  What happened to everybody loving one another or at least being considerate of one another?  Is the human race taking giant steps backward?  How many more preventable tragedies have to happen before we'll wake up?  Why have we become so violent, so entitled, so selfish, so angry, so, so, rough, so aggressive...I could go on an on with adjectives.  But no matter what you call it, we need to catch ourselves...before it's too late.


I know it sounds simple but why can't we just treat others as we'd like to be treated ourselves?  Why can't we show a little peace, love and understanding (Elvis Costello) to each other.  What's the hurry?  How important is it to be first in line, for anything?  One of my favorite quotes is from Gandhi:  "You must be the change you wish to see in the world."  Each of us can, and must, make a difference. Maybe at this time of year, with the holidays and the New Year close at hand, is a good time for all of us to take stock of ourselves and our approach to life.  Yes, things have changed, probably for the majority of us.  I'm not making the money I was making two years ago and we've had to make adjustments (i.e. sushi only once a month :-)  But, no kidding around, the experts say that, at least in the U.S., we're not going to fully recover for 10 years.  10 years?  That is a lifetime.  But what it is it is and if we aren't kind to each other, whatever time it takes for things to improve we will be crushed by our own disappointments.  The morning after can be bright, if we just look for the light instead of the dark.

These are my views and not that of my employer.

I read somewhere that it's important to be happy with what we have and not disappointed with what we don't have. We as a people have been going through some very difficult times over the past two plus years and from everything I hear and read they're not over yet. We got spoiled and felt entitled to things getting better every year (I learned my own lessons on this subject in the late 1980's but that's a story for another day). So, at this family time of year, let's appreciate what we have, the little things which are really the important things and stay away from those thoughts that take us into places we don't really want to go. I wish all of you a happy and healthy Thanks giving.

The venerable commercial real estate industry publication, Real Estate Forum, recently conducted a survey of it’s readers regarding the investment real estate climate.  I thought you would find a few of the results interesting:

• “Trophies and trauma are still what is trading.”
• “There’s still a huge disconnect on cap rates between buyers and sellers, though reality is sinking in on the sellers side....very slowly.”
• What will offer the best returns over the next 12 months?
• Distress (27.3%)
• Value-add (24.4%)
• Opportunistic (21.9)
• Core (11.6%)
• Core-plus (7.0%)
• Offshore Investments (5.0%)

• The issue that will have the greatest impact on the investment climate over the next 12 months will be:
• Stalling recovery (40.6%)
• Gov’t action/Tax Reform (24.3%)
• Commercial loan defaults (19.7%)

My guess that the majority of the respondents of this survey are developers, brokers, lenders, corporate real estate executives and others who are on the front lines of the deal world so, while their guess is as good as mine about the future, their livelihood is most directly affected by all the factors relating to commercial real estate investment.  It’s hard to believe that we’re coming to the end of 2010, a year when things were supposed to get better.  And, it was better than 2009 but there a book by musician Richard Farina called “Been Down So Long, It Looks Like Up To Me” that may be the most accurate way to describe the differences between 2009 and 2010.  

PERE (Private Equity Real Estate Magazine) is holding their PERE Forum-Europe in Frankfurt on December 6 and 7.  They’ve invited me to moderate a panel of industry heavyweights (Stefan Brendgen, CEO, Allianz Real Estate Germany; Laurent Luccioni, CEO, Europe, MGPA; Will Rowson, CIO, ING Real Estate-Europe; Ralph Winter, Founder, Corestate Capital and Michael Morgenroth, Management Board Member, Gothaer Asset Management (and also Chairman of INREV).  The topic:  Exploring Investment Opportunities in Key European Markets:  London, Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid and Stockholm.  PERE just told me that any U.S. Pension Fund, Endowment, Foundation who would like to send a delegate can attend for free.  If you qualify, and are interested, please let me know and I’ll hook you up.  I love moderating panels and have gotten good feedback on my style which engages the audience immediately and never forgets that the panel has an obligation to the audience to give them some real take-aways.  Too often, moderators pander to their panelists with the result being watered down, redundant commentary.  Moderators need to challenge their panelists and the audience to bring out the best that they have to offer.  Conference attendees deserve nothing less.  


A recent survey of almost two hundred U.K. institutional real estate investors revealed these results:  

• Half of those surveyed indicated that their investment strategy will be a mixture of listed and unlisted real estate.
• With the Asian population becoming wealthier and aspirational attitudes beginning to change, there has been a rise in the number of Asian consumers and a liberalisation of consumer credit. As Asian consumers put their savings to work, there should be very tangible benefits to real estate investments.
• The investible universe for real estate in Asia is low relative to other regions, with JP Morgan suggesting it could grow at almost twice the pace of Europe and North America between 2009 and 2028. This presents a significant opportunity to participate in the development and funding of institutional grade real estate, and to access a growing universe of investment properties.

On the road...
Dec. 6 & 7: Frankfurt am Main where I'll be moderating a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe
Dec. 8: Mainhattan to attend the INREV investor platform and committee meetings (I'm on their membership committee)
Dec. 14-21:  The Big Apple
Dec. 20:  New York:  The Second Not-Really-Annual Institutional Real Estate World Buy Your Own Drink Holiday Get Together.  6:30pm at Pera Brasserie, Madison bet. 41 and 42.

Jan. 12-14: Laguna Beach, CA to attend the IMN Opportunity Fund Conference

Feb. 1-3: Dana Point, CA to attend IREI's VIP Conference

Manney Felix:  May 1, 1917-November 18, 2009.  He loved that hat!




These are my views and not that of my employer.

One year ago

Next week is the first anniversary of the death of my father.  As many of you told me, this post-death period of mourning or missing or whatever is not easy and takes a different amount of time for each of us.  As I used to speak with him almost every Saturday, it’s on Saturday mornings that I think of him most often.  But in the past few days I’ve also been thinking about my mother who died at 68 in 1992.  I was not an easy child.  I’m not even sure that I’ve been an easy adult (probably not).  My parents never attended “Parenting 101” and so they just did their best.  I don’t think they knew what to do with me.  They did their best.  I certainly didn’t know what to do with myself and after living an oblivious life for many, many years, I finally woke up.  I do my best.  I try to avoid regrets.  There’s nothing we can do about them other than use them to do things differently in the future.  But this week I again allowed a regret surface; this one of throwing out, without reading, a letter that my mother wrote to me and mailed to me at the basement apartment I was living in in Sea Bright, NJ after getting separated from my first wife and sons.  I had been angry with her for a long time.  I had been trying to accept her as she was (with the help of a counselor) and I was getting there.  I have wondered, all these years, what she wrote to me.  I will always wonder.  She was not easy either and I have a feeling I was handed many of her genes and behavior.  She was driven and became a successful travel agent (an industry she tried to get me into and I’m really glad, for a number of reasons, that I stayed with real estate-my Dad’s career as a property manager).  And now, as I think about how much I miss my father, I also think about how much I miss my mother and that I wish we had gotten to be friends before time ran out for us.  

I found this piece by Charles "Ed" Haldeman, Jr., CEO of Freddie Mac on leadership (I'd be happy to send you the whole piece; just email me (steve@simplicate.com):

Creating a Template

Haldeman applies the same management principles to any company he joins. "The first day you come in," he said, "you literally don't know one person. You've got to have a template ... some philosophy to bring" that can be applied to an organization and the culture that already exists. Haldeman said his ideal management model has eight necessary ingredients:

• Make integrity and high ethics prerequisites.
• Create a workplace that's open, direct, candid and honest.
• Make sure employees understand the company mission.
• Develop a business plan that all employees can understand and repeat.
• Communicate the mission and plan constantly.
• Give other people autonomy.
• Senior managers must spend time walking around.

These all sound like good things to do but as I think you’ll agree with me, like most good intentioned things, there’s a difference between ‘talking the talk’ and ‘walking the walk.’  I’ve been fortunate to work in a number of very collaborative, positive, learning environments  I’ve also been places where the politics, insecurity and fear overshadow the behavior that breeds success.  Just as the former are energizing environments, the latter are very draining.  I’ve never been a shrewd guy.  I’m pretty simple, not calculating, not political...just very open.  I know that some people feel threatened by my openness and that it has worked to my disadvantage a few times in my career.  Those that survive successfully, particularly in large organizations, have learned how to play the game.  And, I’m wondering as I write this whether that approach is what makes so many companies mediocre (i.e.  “Good to Great”).  Any thoughts?

On the road....

November:  Left coast

December 6-7: Mainhatten (not a typo) to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe

December 8:  Still in Mainhatten to attend the INREV Investor Platform/Committee meetings

December 16-21:  The City That Never Sleeps

February 1-2: Where my friend Michael K lives, CA to attend IREI's VIP conference

March 16-17: Capital City to attend the PREA spring conference

April 12-14: Fog City to attend The Pension Bridge Conference

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

(December 20):  The second almost-annual end of year buy your own drink thing.  A couple of years ago a bunch of us got together for a holiday drink and had a great time.  What I loved about it was that while I knew almost everybody, a lot of folks were meeting for the first time.  The invitee list will not be published but it's a very eclectic blend of commercial/institutional real estate people. In line with the conservative approach to entertainment expenses in the industry it's a 'buy your own' (although you can buy one for someone else, or me, if you want to!) event.  I've been encouraged by some previous attendees that we do it again.  So, here goes:

Date:   Monday, December 20, 2010

Time:  6:30 to whenever you feel like leaving

Place;  Pera Brasserie, 303 Madison Avenue (E/S of Madison between 41 & 42)

Thanks a lot and hope to see you there.

Sean Felix: 15 months chilling at The Sit Down in Hyde Park, Chicago

These are my views and not that of my employer.

A New Wall of Capital?

First, just a snipet from RCA's Capital Trends Report published yesterday.  As I travel around, what RCA is reporting is clearly exactly what is happening in the market.  The new "Wall of Capital" is certainly at the 'core' of the matter and while many institutional investors feel that by taking the 'road most travelled' they are taking a safe path through the real estate jungle, it remains to be seen if their hunches play out.  However, one thing which cannot be minimized:  cash flow is a good thing.

"Of the many trends fueling the commercial real estate market’s current momentum, the explosive growth in sales of higher-priced properties offers one of the clearest expressions of investors’ rising confidence and appetite for selective risk-taking. Year-to-date transaction volume for properties priced at $25 million and higher has soared 126% compared with the same period last year, handily surpassing the broader market’s already-impressive year-to-date gains. In the lowest price tier, for properties transacting between $2.5 and $5.0 million, activity was generally more stable through the downturn but has been lackluster in the extent of its recovery."

A few weeks ago I wrote something that prompted a friend who's been reading this blog for a number of years to write to me.  Thanks for sharing this, Bob. You certainly have gotten me thinking about a bunch of stuff.

The economic malaise in Japan and the United States was prevalent at ULI.  In fact, the new issue of Emerging Trends says we have entered the “Age of Less”.  It’s a good follow on to a NYT article that termed this the “Period of Austerity.”   One researcher noted that the attitudes (at the end of recession) were very similar and very dark.  He pointed out that it’s always this way after downturns and that has certainly been the case for the five or six I’ve waded through. 

On the other hand, and what gives me pause, is the article in Time magazine by Fareed Zakaria, “How to Restore the American Dream.”  Read it closely and note how global competition has hollowed out the working class manufacturing jobs (leaving only low paying service sector).  You can also find evidence that we may lose the immigration war (not our Mexican border war; this is the fight to attract educated immigrants).  You will see the downside to productivity gains and quarterly earnings.  Finally, you will read that even our better paying jobs can be exported (did you know a few schools in Chicago are paying teachers in India to tutor schoolchildren via the Internet? It’s cheaper than hiring someone locally). 

It seemed in the 80s that the only blue-collar jobs you could not shipped overseas were working class construction jobs.  Unfortunately, politicians effectively exported even those jobs by allowing unbridled illegal immigration from Mexico, South America and Europe.  All of this leads me to believe we are in for a period of major adjustment as the borderless global market engulfs us and we de-lever our Federal, State and Municipal budgets.

I don’t think the answer is high-speed railroads (there may be a few corridors but I assure you that there is no reason to travel at high speed between Chicago and St. Louis) or more expensive-education.  Really, how many college graduates can we accommodate and how can these kids afford it – the President suggested we forgive college debts paid on time for 20 years.  It’s hard to believe that this Lake Woebegone attitude, where everyone can be above average, is the solution. 

Frankly, it sounds like my grandchildren’s school, where even the losers get trophies.

Recently we had some student's from Baylor University in our office.  They were hosted by my colleague (and Baylor alum) Russ Bates who set up a case-study type day.  Russ asked me to talk with the students about careers in real estate.  When I discovered that this group was not really focused on real estate I decided not to either.  So I asked them what it was that they thought I could tell them that would be valuable.  I suggested just a few things which I believe are good to remember no matter whether you go into real estate or not:  (1)  Keep your nose clean.  It's a very small world. (2) Do an internship (and also work for) only a reputable company.  (3)  Nurture and respect your network.  Don't send out blast emails and don't be in contact just when you need something from them.  (4)  Remember that the people you meet when you're young will be growing up with you in your industry and one day you will all find yourselves as senior people.  Cherish this evolution. 

Last week I was poking around movies on cable and found "The Great Buck Henry" with John Malkovich. While watching it I had a sneaking suspicion which was only confirmed as the end credits were rolling: the movie was based on the life of the mentalist, The Amazing Kreskin. My mother used to own a travel agency. Kreskin was one of her best clients. At that time, in addition to being a regular on Johnny Carson (who always got a real kick out of him) and doing club dates, Kreskin had his own TV show which was taped weekly in Toronto. He tried to limit the number of nights away from home so he flew to Toronto very early on the morning of the taping. I was playing in a band full time (six nights a week) and to pick up some extra money I became Kreskin's 'driver.' Many night's I'd just stay up after playing a gig and pick him up at his home at around 5am. One day, we're driving to the airport (he lived in Essex County, NJ) but usually flew from one of the NY airports. So he's asleep and we're just passing LaGuardia Airport on the way to JFK. He wakes up and asks me where we are. "We just passed LGA."  He says, "I think I'm flying from LGA. Let me check my ticket." Sure enough, he was right and as I'm making a U-turn he says, "See, I told you I was a mentalist." But, on another trip, when I asked him if he would perform one of his things on me he said he didn't do it on family members or friends. Anyway, that's my Amazing Kreskin story. He's a very nice guy.

Photo:  Chicago, IL

On the road....

Dec. 6 & 7: Frankfurt am Main where I'll be moderating a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe

Dec. 8: Mainhattan to attend the INREV investor platform and committee meetings (I'm on their membership committee)

Dec. 16-21:  The Big Apple

Dec. 20:  New York:  Tentative:  The Second Not-Really-Annual Institutional Real Estate World Buy Your Own Drink Holiday Get Together.  I will keep you posted.
Feb. 1-3: Dana Point, CA to attend IREI's VIP Conference

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Logan, Ernie, David & PERE

              

You guys are really special.  My friend Charlie, whose grandson Logan (last week I mistakenly identified Logan as Charlie's nephew) told me that so far he has received $400 from readers of this column (and maybe someone to whom you passed it along to) to help defray the expenses of Logan's pending bone marrow transplant.  I received this email yesterday from Logan’s grandmother:

Dear Steve:

I can't thank you enough for writing about Logan in your blog. I'm sure Charlie has already told you that we have received donations as a result of your having written about him. The generosity that has been shown by people who don't know Logan, or for that matter any of us, is overwhelming. Rich and Nancy have been so blown away by the compassion shown by people that they have never met that they can't find the words to describe their gratitude. I, too, have found it very difficult to sufficiently express my thanks to those who have opened up their hearts to my son, my grandson and their family.

This is a very frightening time for all of us, but knowing that there is such a huge amount of support out there, helps us to move forward each day. As my son so eloquently expressed..."His [Logan's] strength is magnified by the prayers and love of others." I think that would stand true for all of us.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart,

Pattie

Early in the evening (6pm) on November 4th, Ernie Hendrickson will be making his first appearance in New York City. The venue is the Rockwood Music Hall, 196 Allen Street (http://www.rockwoodmusichall.com). Unfortunately I'll be on the road that night and won't be able to be there but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't go. Ernie is a good friend and part of the band that has played on both my first and second CD (due out early 2011). More than that, Ernie is a very talented singer/songwriter who has been getting some good national radio play of his latest album, Walking With Angels.  A couple of the testimonials Ernie has received:  "In today's overly produced pop music market, Ernie Hendrickson is a diamond in the rough; born of heart, soul and grit." "Dark and pretty songs. Ernie Hendrickson is finding a niche in the indie folk Americana segment. He is a storyteller like Harry Nillson in a country mood."  If you go, please say "Howdy" to Ernie for me.

 I was very sorry to hear that David Mark, the longtime managing editor of Real Estate Alert, passed away last Saturday from complications from his second bout with leukemia. Although I’ve known the people at Harrison Scott since they started publishing in the early 1990’s I only got to know David over the past few years.  He was a passionate journalist who relished a ‘scoop.’  Many of you knew him, or he knew you or of you.   David was only 42 and leaves behind his wife and two young children.  Very sad.

Finally, some real estate stuff.  I attended the PERE Forum in NewYork this week.  I wanted to share some of my notes and quotes from the conference, which I hope you find worthwhile:

·     The only thing the real estate industry needs to change is our own expectations.

·     Co-investment funds, for large investors, will become popular….for a while.

·     Investors have become frustrated paying fees on committed but uninvested capital.

·     The name of the game today is:  execution.

·     Fee structures should be changed:  lower management fee; higher carry.

·     If you act like a sheep you’re going to get fleeced (investors with herd mentality).

·     Testifying before Congress in 1967, Nobel Laureate Paul Samuelson proclaimed "Most portfolio decision makers should go out of business - take up plumbing, teach Greek, or help produce the annual GNP by serving as corporate executives."

·     If you think you’re going to get 20% returns….forget it.

·     Some large investors (China, Canada) are doing limited JV’s.  This is the way they will invest….for a time.

·     Club Deals (5-6 investors):  Do they have the same investment strategy?  The same exit strategy?

·     It’s hard to see how large funds, operated by investment banks, will make a comeback.

·     Boutique fund managers, with a JV mindset, will be successful.

·     Capital market flows

o  Open-end core funds have attracted $7.28Bn YTD

o  Public REITS have attracted $17Bn YTD

o  Closed-end funds have closed on $5.28Bn YTD

·     Quick-tally audience question:  Which developed markets present the most attractive investment opportunities today?

o  Asia                39%

o  U.S.                 33%

o  Europe         28%

On the road….

Nov. 2-4:  Various places in the Lone Start State
Nov. 5: The City of the Big Shoulders

Dec. 6 & 7: Frankfurt am Main where I'll be moderating a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe
Dec. 8: Mainhattan to attend the INREV investor platform and committee meetings (I'm on their membership committee)

Feb. 1-3: Dana Point, CA to attend IREI's VIP Conference

These are my views and not that of my employer.