Friday, July 25, 2008

new york


just this week new york i noticed more and more storefront space vacant. maybe it's been vacant for a while but it jumped out at me. i've always been tuned into retail space from all my years in the shopping center industry and maybe, given all the stress and strain in the commercial/institutional real estate world, it just seemed like more. however, having said that, i had lunch with adam ifshin, president of DLC Management (http://www.dlcmgmt.com) which is a nationwide owner/operator of shopping centers who told me that the occupancy of their centers is holding up quite well. for some time now, retail real estate has been struggling and the wave of bankruptcies and store closings does not bode well for owners of certain types of shopping centers. however, we have to remember that economies, just as lives, go in cycles and we're in the midst of one right now. with hindsight being 20/20 we know about past cycles but we don't know what the future has in store for us. only that more and more people are talking about this economic condition we're in now will (a) be with us for longer than people originally expected, (2) will be deeper than previously anticipated (c) and will change the landscape of our industry.

i’ve been hearing stories from too many people who are checking their emails while on vacation. this is simply not healthy nor does it make for a real ‘vacation’, a break from work. maybe this is symptomatic of it being a stressful time in the industry and there are layoffs and budget cuts and people are, well, frightened that if they don’t check in they will be forgotten or worse, not missed and therefore subject to being replaced (or worse, eliminated). checking in during vacation is a habit that took me years to break so I can definitely empathize with everyone doing it. but when I did learn, via study in stress management, it has made a difference in my life.

a lot of people have been asking me what i’m going to do now that i’ve parted company with my former employer. The short answer is that I’m having conversations with many people, some about actual opportunities and some just about life/work/fun/money. I would expect that by the end of the summer at the latest there will be an announcement of my next adventure. I appreciate all the support I’ve gotten from many of you and look forward to continuing the relationship with both those I get to deal with personally and those of you who support this column.

it was officially announced this week that my good friend, Peter Slatin, has joined Real Capital Analytics (http://www.rcanalytics.com) as Editorial Director and Associate Publisher. Peter will spearhead the growth of RCA’s new publications directed to the global property community, Global Capital Trends and Hotel Capital Trends. He will also oversee RCA’s Capital Trends Monthly and be involved in special new projects. Congratulations to Peter. I think this is a great marriage!

i had dinner last night in new york with a very prestigious group of industry professionals: mark Roberts of INVESCO, simon mallinson of IPD, jeannette rice of verde realty and bob white of RCA. of course there was some good real estate conversation as well as covering a lot of other ground. But something funny happened when we left the restaurant; we were standing in a group and there were a lot of people on the street, generally younger people. we were talking about facebook.com and we overheard someone say, “see even ‘they’ have facebook pages.” well, we were hurt (not really) but it’s an interesting commentary and suggestion that perhaps, even though different ‘networking’ sites are trying to become ‘the one place for people to congregate, connect and whatever’ it seems like there is a distinct possibility that there are some people that will use the newest and greatest of these type vehicles. at dinner we were talking about the use of information on facebook by HR types to learn more about their prospective hires and that people need to be more careful about what they post on the web. anyway, yes, I have a facebook site. I don’t really do much with it and I didn’t do it to make me feel young (I feel young anyway) but it’s interesting to see how other people do use these tools and how our society continues to morph right in front of our very ‘faces.


Where will I be? (subject to updates)

Sept. 4-5: Stockholm, Sweden for the EPRA Annual Conference (http://www.epra.com)

Sept. 9-10: Cambridge (UK) for Investment Property Databank’s (IPD) RealWorld Conference 2008 (http://www.ipd.com).

Sept. 11: New York for FIABCI-USA UN Luncheon (http://www.fiabci.com) where Bob White, Founder of Real Capital Analytics will be the keynote speaker.
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conferenc

Oct. 15-18: Houston for the CREW (Commercial Real Estate Women) Convention (http://www.crewnetwork.org).

Oct. 27-30: Miami Beach, FL for ULI’s 2008 Fall Meeting (http://www.uli.org)

Oct. 31-Nov. 3: Boston for The CRE Annual Convention (http://www.cre.org).

Nov. 27: Amsterdam for the INREV Investor Platform & Working Committee Meetings (http://www.inrev.org)

Mar. 10-13: Cannes, France for MIPIM (http://www.mipim.com)


Friday, July 18, 2008

London

UBS Global Real Estate recently sent out this message: “We are saddened to inform you of the passing away of our colleague and friend, Larry Dobb. His gifts of commitment, respect, excellence and hard work will be remembered within our firm, among our clients, and within the real estate investment management community. He will be missed. Those who wish to may make a memorial donation to a charity selected by his family, The Pancreatic Cancer Action Network,
www.pancan.org which seeks to improve detection and treatment of pancreatic cancer.” While I didn’t know Larry well, I knew him. He was a good guy. Each time we lose a friend or colleague it is more and more poignant. We feel for the family and we feel for ourselves because we are all just “shadows in the wind.” And, while it shouldn’t take the passing of someone we know personally or just someone we know of (Tim Russert, Tony Snow), it’s a reminder to us to not keep putting off things and to appreciate every day we have here.

I was in London this week and got a chance to spend some time with the Morley/Aviva team. As you may know, Aviva (the fifth largest insurance company in the world) owns Morley. Morley is one of the UK’s largest active fund managers. In Europe, it is one of the biggest property investment managers with £29.4 billion / €37.4 billion/ $59.4 billion USD of property assets under management. Morley group companies have assets of £157.5 billion / €200.6 billion/ $318 billion USD under management. Earlier this year, Madison Harbor Capital, a New York based multi-manager investment firm was acquired by Morley/Aviva. There’s an interesting story unfolding here and in the fall you’ll be hearing much more about these guys. I know more than I’m saying here but no one would ever talk with me if they thought that I couldn’t keep my shut about certain things. Of course, there’s the other side of the coin where people talk with me or want to meet with me because they know I won’t keep my mouth shut! Anyway, balance is everything, right?

Just as ususal, I’ve been making a point of reaching out each week to people in our industry to take their temperature, as it were and as many of you will probably concur, things are not necessairly going in the right direction. The economists who this spring were all saying ‘short and shallow’ regarding the “recession” have changed their song but the new one is not attempting to predict how long it will take to come through this (no one really knows anyway) nor what the new ‘normal’ will look like; it’s agreeing with each other that we aren’t sure how much deeper this thing gets before we start to see the daylight.

For those raising or topping off their funds, it’s a challenge (not that it isn’t hard work all the time) but the denominator effect continues to spread and, well, putting new money out into real estate funds when in some cases the last piece of change has not yet been invested is a tough decision to make. Of course, you always have the more aggressive institutional investors who have thrown money at the ‘distressed funds.’ but even there, the pricing on those portfolios, principally of loans (as the hard asset real estate distress in commercial real estate has not yet really active), is rising with more competition. The key to making money is on the buy and the fewer cents on the dollar that you can take down a portfolio of distressed loans, the more room you have to make money on the turn, provided there’s someone who is next in line. Anyway, there are a lot of you out there who are dealing with things that you’ve either never had to deal with (depending on when you started your business) or haven’t had to deal with in a long time. It’s very important to continue to visit your investor clients during this period, especially when you’re not marketing a fund.

Congratulations to my friend, Glen Esnard who has joined Grubb & Ellis and is growing their Capital Markets team.

On a recent flight (which is where I see most of my movies) I watched the Scorcese film, “Shine A Light”, a documentary on The Rolling Stones concerts in New York last year (http://www.scene-stealers.com/print-reviews/scorsese-shines-a-light-on-the-rolling-stones). There’s some great footage of the band and some interesting side interviews pulled from the archives (going back to the early days). Christina Aguilera joins Mick for “Live With Me.” Man that girl can sing! I got my first ever chance to see the Stones in Munich last year or the year before and it’s just a great show: a sing-along with 60,000 people and Mick just showing unbelievable energy. A side note: Blondie Chaplin, a versatile musician who toured with, among others, The Beach Boys years ago, is a singer/sideman for the Stones. I saw Blondie in the mid-70’s at the Lone Star Cafe in New York when he was with Rick Danko and Richard Manuel of “The Band.” That night, I had an experience that still gives me the chills: during the Band classic, “The Unfaithful Servant” when it came time for the sax solo, instead, you hear a sweet and beautiful harmonica being played but you don’t see anyone on stage. After a few bars, coming down the stairs that led from the dressing rooms directly to the stage, you see Paul Butterfield, a legendary blues player joining them on stage. It a beautiful musical moment that is frozen for me.

Last weekend I was part of a very special experience at my old summer camp (http://www.campwalden.org). Without rambling on too much (I wrote about this last week), the dedication of the memorial bench went beautifully but something else special happened. Two members of our group brought the words to old camp songs that had been lost over the years. First we sang them to the assembled multitude (330 campers and 140 staff) and then they sang along with us. One of the songs, Terra Toma, is an especially moving song best sung around a large campfire. It gave us the chills. We feel strongly that this group of campers and staff will adopt those songs and pass them along to future generatations. There are many ways which legacies continue and this is one of them.

Also, happy 80th birthday to Dolph Schayes, NBA (National Basketball Association) Hall of Famer and voted one of the top 50 basketball players of all time. He was a co-owner of Camp Walden and was there last week for the festivities. He is, beyond a doubt, one of the nicest (and funniest) men I have had the privilege of knowing.

Many of you have been asking me “What are you going to do next?” Well, rest assured, you’ll be the first to know and because some of the things I’m working on putting together are quite unique I don’t want to spoil the surprise (or give anyone a chance to steal my ideas-it wouldn’t be the first time.).

I look forward to hearing from you. The best way to reach me is: (steve@simplicate.com). Thanks.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

seasons change

hi and thanks for visiting my new blog. i've always been a fan of 'less is more' when it comes to presentations and playing the blues. at some conferences i've counted the number of PowerPoint slides that are shown and created a PP slide per minute index which is way too high. but it's just too easy for us to use this tool and put as much information as we can on the slides. perhaps we should be thinking more about how much the audience, any audience, can absorb and more importantly take away (more on take-away's later). but this week i found the following in a great periodic email sent out by ann wylie, a consultant on communications that i wanted to share with you:

"Everything's better when it's short. Even PowerPoint
_____________________________________________

I recently spent a great evening in a bar watching PowerPoint presentations.

Yep, you read that right. PowerPoint.

It was actually an evening of Pecha Kucha. Pronounced peh-cha ku-cha, the name comes from a Japanese term meaning "chit-chat."

Two architects in Japan created this approach to help them keep their presentations short and interesting. Their rule: You can show only 20 slides for just 20 seconds each. That's 400 seconds to get your message across.

What works to keep an audience's attention in PowerPoint also works in other media.

Try it. Give yourself a tight length limit, stick to it, and watch every piece you write get sharper and more interesting."

now about takeaways: my definition is something that a person you're presenting to, either in an audience or in a private meeting, remembers and more better goes back to their office, walks down the hall to one of their colleagues, plops in a chair and says, "i heard a very interesting thing yesterday." bingo! you have succeeded. but a communication consultant friend of mine has taught me that to get someone to remember just one thing from a presentation you have choose that one thing and then have three supporting statements about it. think of that, experts who think that getting someone to remember (think take-away) one thing is success. it may be worth a try, don't you think?

Remembering
Some of you may remember in the summer of 2003 I was involved in the planning of a reunion of a summer camp that I attended as both a camper and a counselor. Camp Walden is on Trout Lake, just up the hill from Bolton Landing, New York, which sits on Lake George. The camp has been open continuously for 75 years. The reunion was a wonderful experience and included the getting back together of a camp rock band called “The Arcade Love Machine” (don’t forget, this was 1968!). We hadn’t played together in 35 years but we managed to pull off a one-night stand at a real club in Montreal. The rest of the weekend was also perfect with more than 80 people attending. But the ‘high’ of that weekend turned to sadness just a few months later when our lead singer, Dave Florendo (a senior corporate attorney for Altria (formerly Phillip Morris) died quickly of some type of cancer. It was devastating, especially as Dave and I were the lead guys organizing that event. For a couple of years after Dave’s death, we raised money to provide a scholarship for a camper from Dave’s old neighborhood in Inwood, New York to attend the camp for a summer. Dave had originally attended camp on a similar type scholarship deal. But time took its toll and the interest in the scholarship program waned. One of our group came up with a great idea: raise money one more time and dedicate a bench at the camp. And that is just what we’re doing next weekend. A very small but representative group of us will visit the camp on Friday and Saturday and dedicate the bench which will have a plaque installed on it with these words:

Dedicated to the spirits of Walden past, present and future
Donated with love by
The David Florendo Memorial Fund
July 2008

I think that now, five years after the reunion and 40 years after “The Arcade Love Machine’s” first performance, it’ll bring some closure to this episode. But it also gets you thinking, again, about how unpredictable life is and how fleeting our time is. It’s hard sometimes, living our normal lives day to day to remember how lucky we are and to think about what is really important in our lives. I know I’ve written about this subject quite a bit but I must tell you that writing it helps me remember too (just like a number of you have told me that it gets you thinking as well). As my friend and member of the band that recorded my CD, Ernie Hendrickson (http://www.erniehendrickson.com) says beautifully in one of his songs, “Seasons Change.” And as the seasons change, whether it be the weather or the seasons of our lives, we must not, we cannot forget that we get only one go around in this life and that we all are the masters of our selves. I lived for many years on autopilot; doing what I thought I should do instead of what I wanted to do and what I needed to do. In the past number of years I have done a lot of what I needed to do and some of what I wanted to do. At each crossroads, we have choices and, especially when others are counting on us, they’re not easy to make. But then again, who said it would be easy? Anyway, I’ll let you know how the bench dedication goes and hope you are dedicating enough time to yourself.

The CRE (Counselors of Real Estate) interviewed 12 well-known (although all American) and respected members of the commercial real estate industry asking them about what career advice they’d give to a young person interested in real estate as a career. I think they’re great and will give you some examples each week for the next few weeks:

1."It is very important to develop a résumé that distinguishes you from everyone else. The number one question that always ran through my head is 'Why should someone choose you?'"
2. "You have to be in the right place at the right time.”
3. "There is nothing more important than just showing up and meeting people, because when you show up, you establish relationships, build rapport, and you learn how to satisfy your clients' needs." (Hospitality Industry).
4. "You should always look at your next opportunity and challenge yourself---it makes working fun each and everyday."

I didn’t listen much when I was growing up; actually I didn’t start listening until relatively recently in my life when I think about it. But I have learned that there are some things that are just ‘spot on’ when it comes to listening about careers, relationships and life. I’ve read a lot of books about careers, self-improvement and other things and while I don’t buy into everything that everyone says, I’ve gotten a tremendous amount out of these things, some of which I’ve shared with you over the years. And, while good sayings are important, it’s the execution of something we believe in that makes the difference. Actions speak louder than words and no matter what someone says to you, the way they act is really what it’s all about. Think about your actions before you act. You don’t want to go through your life apologizing for things you’ve said or done or equally as bad for things you were supposed to do but didn’t. It’s much easier to do things right and to tell the truth. Remember this and you’ll ‘simplicate’ your life every day.

No one likes surprises. In any part of our lives. We learned that a long time ago. In business, being on top of things, or to use that overused word, proactive, allows us in many cases to anticipate problems that may be occurring or about to occur and take some preventative action. When someone comes in to a meeting with a you and says, “I’ve got some good news and some bad news.” Most will say, ‘tell me the bad news first.’ It’s human nature. But, holding stuff in probably comes from our childhood when we accidentally did something and didn’t want to tell our parents about it for fear of punishment. It was only after a few experiences like that that we learned that the punishment would be worse if our parents found out about something than if we had just gone and told them. So does that mean that honesty is a complicated thing? Hmmmm. Part of me wants to say that honesty is simple; you either are or you’re not. I’ve always wondered about the honesty of people who start out a sentence with, “To tell you the truth….” Does it mean that anything else, not prefaced with that introduction, isn’t the truth? Of course, a lot of what this is about also relates to who is saying something and the tone in their voice and the expression on their face, which is why face2face meetings are so, so very important. Have you ever been called into a meeting, whether it is business or personal and been totally blindsided? Maybe we’ve heard more about this regarding inter-personal relationships when, seemingly out of nowhere, one of the parties informs the other, “I’m outta here. This relationship/marriage is over.” And the other party is completely stunned because they didn’t have any idea that anything was wrong or at least that things had deteriorated enough for their partner to be ending the relationship just like that. In business, one would think it should be different and in many companies it is. Just one word to the wise here is that your employees know what happens. so, my suggestion here is: don’t take anything for granted and be prepared, as you never know what tomorrow may bring.

As many of you who have been following my exploits for a while know, the summer is usually a time when I cut down on my travel, recharge my batteries and plan for the fall when the global institutional real estate community gets going again, at least with regard to conferences, etc. It’s sort of like ‘Back to School’. so, that's just what i'm doing again this summer. but, you never know where situations and opportunities may take me and I’ll keep you posted as things evolve.

finally, thank you very much for all the kind emails and phone calls following the announcement of the suspension of my OTR column. some of the messages brought tears to my eyes. i hope to continue to hear from you at (steve@simplicate.com).

p.s. all the best to my good friend peter slatin who has joined another good friend, bob white at real capital analytics (RCA). they will be announcing some very cool new things over the next few months.

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