You can say anything to anyone, as long as you say it the right way.

Today was the UNC/Kenan-Flagler Real Estate Challenge day.  I was one of the judges.  The case was a monster involving the redevelopment/development of The General Artigas Train Station Site in Montevideo, Uruguay.  15 teams from Real Estate MBA programs around the country (this year there was a team from the London School of Economics) participated.  The teams have 57 hours to study the case, do the research and prepare a presentation.  It's not very long but the results are very impressive.  This case did not have a clear-cut answer so there was a lot of room for creativity.  All the schools teams are to be complimented. But, as in all competitions, there is a winner.  This year it was the group from Haas School at Berkeley.  Second place went to the team from the Fuqua School at Duke and the tie for third place went to Marshall USC and Darden UVA.  Congratulations to everyone.


I’ve been coming to this event for a number of years now.  It’s a great opportunity for me to meet another generation of people who are passionate about the real estate industry.  As it’s the only industry I’ve ever worked in (unless you count rock and roll), I love getting to know these students, most of whom have had jobs and decided to go back to get their MBA in real estate.  Dave Hartzell, who runs the program is the magnet for attracting students.  His enthusiasm is contagious and, once exposed to him, I don’t think there are too many students who can turn down an invitation to be part of his program.  Dave’s partner in crime in this whole thing is Susan “The Hurricane” Drake, Associate Director of the Center for Real Estate Development. Susan and I have gotten to know each other over the years and she is one special woman and part of the reason the program has been so successful.  If you are interested in the UNC Real Estate program and being invited to the next UNC Real Estate Conference (held the day before the challenge) please send an email to cred@unc.edu.

Jacques Gordon, Global Head of Research & Strategy at LaSalle Investment Management, was one of the presenters yesterday.  Until Jacques started busting Hartzell’s chops I didn’t realize that the two of them worked together many years ago and have been good friends ever since.  Jacques engaging presentation included some interesting facts and comments:

·      Global institutional real estate is a $6 trillion industry

·      Percentage of the $6 trillion is attributed to:  Americas (36.2%), Europe (34.6%), Asia/Pacific (24.8%), Middle East/North Africa (3.5%)

·      Early 2011 Outlook:

o  Global economic outlook much improved in last 60 days

o  U.S. picking up steam despite long-term concerns about fiscal health

o  Deal flow picked up globally in 2H2010; growth will continue in 2011

o  Buyer focus on top tier, leased assets, will broaden in 2011

o  RCA 4Q2010 transaction volumes were strongest since 2007

·      “Capital shouldn’t be thinking about what did happen but rather what should happen and how to price itself"

·      9 out of 10 new mandates he’s seeing, from all types of investors are global

·      13 of the largest 25 real estate companies by market cap are in Asia

·      R.E. Transparency Index (most transparent countries 2010):

o  Australia

o  Canada

o  UK

o  New Zealand

o  Sweden

Some other notes and quotes from the conference from Bob White RCA; Ed Fritsch, Highwood Properties; Wes Fuller, Greystar; Mike Mcdonald, Eastdil Secured; Paul Whyte, Credit Suisse and Chip Rogers, The Real Estate Roundtable:

·      The bottom line:  for the real estate industry to improve we need jobs

·      Biggest apartment rent growth in 2010

o  Portland, OR

o  San Francisco

o  San Antonio

·      There are 22 multi-family funds raising capital today vs. 5 in 2009

·      There’s a bifurcation in the market.  Deals are either trophy or trash

·      It’s estimated we’re 35% along working through the distress

·      2010 most active markets for property sales

o  NYC Metro

o  LA Metro

o  DC Metro

o  SF Metro

o  Chicago

·      The Stages of the Real Estate Downcycle:

1.    Denial

2.    Anger

3.    Depression

4.    Acceptance

5.    Transactions

·      Capital will get frustrated at the core and opportunity ends and gravitate to core-plus/value-add.

·      The best way to underwrite a deal is to look at the price per pound vs. the replacement cost

·      “The reason auctions are popular is that people get excited and start chasing the bid instead of the product.”

I found this interesting and want to share it with you.  It’s from an interview with Robin Domeniconi, SVP and Chief Brand Officer for the Elle Group.

You can say anything to anyone, as long as you say it the right way.  Maybe you need to preface it with:  “I’m just curious, and I want to understand what you’re saying better.  Right now, my point of view is quite different.  So can you help me understand why you don’t want to do this or why you wanted to do this?”

If you get people talking and challenging each other, you’re going to have the ability to arrive at the right decision so much quicker and so much easier.  I just make it so it’s a human environment.  I’m not going to motivate by fear, but I am going to motivate by saying, “Let’s win.  This is going to be so much fun to figure out.  Let’s figure it out together.”  I guess my management style is very much about like imagining we’re all children and very vulnerable.  Because we are.

We’re all vulnerable and we all are really human.  We have all this stuff in side of us that we’ve carried with us.  So if you have compassion for that, and you understand that, and you know someone’s smart, then you need to make an effort to understand why they may behave the way they behave.  I think everyone should open their closet and show the skeletons.

In October, I wrote to you about my old friend Charlie Oliver’s grandson Logan. Logan has a chromosomal defect known as hypo diploid, which means he has less than the number of chromosomes with full genetic composition that normal humans should have. This complicates his leukemia and worsens his prognosis. Logan’s case is rare.  I got the news this week that Logan received his transplant and is "reborn." He's doing well.  Logan’s family asked me to extend another big ‘thank you’ to those who generously donated to help them through this difficult (and costly) experience and for those who prayed for Logan.

Congratulations to:

Bob Bartlett who joined Sentinel Real Estate in New York as Managing Director of the Marketing and Client Services Group (better buy some warm clothes Bob!).

Howard West, formerly of Meketa Investment Group who joined The Wilder Companies in Boston.

IT Consulting Firm of the week:  Wagner Weber (http://www.wagweb.com).  They have been the IT consultants for my company for a number of years.  Recently we moved offices and they got us up and running literally overnight.  More than that, they are professionals and nice people.  The have been providing IT consulting services to the financial services community since 1985. 

On the road....

Feb. 12-15: West coast

Feb. 16-17: Des Moines, Iowa

Feb. 18-22: New York

Feb. 23-26: West coast

Feb. 27-Mar.1: Santa Monica, CA to attend NAREIM's Senior Executive Officer's Meeting (National Association of Real Estate Investment Managers).

Mar. 16-17: Washington, DC for the PREA Spring Conference

Mar. 30:  New York to attend IMN's inaugural Real Estate Investment & Search Consultants Congress

Apr. 13-15: Venice to attend the INREV Annual General Meeting

May 12-14: North Palm Beach, FL for the annual meeting of the Homer Hoyt Fellows.

June 9-10: London to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe.

Photo:  Daytona Beach, FL. Exit from restaurant parking lot.  Obviously intended for children riding in the car with their parents!  Although, from what I see, most kids in cars have headphones on, are into their own thing and are very quiet (not necessarily a good trend in my opinion). 

These are my views and not that of my employer.

VIP, Losing Touch & RCA's Good News

'

VIP Conference

For my money, there is no better facilitator in the industry than Geof Dohrmann of IREI. This was evident again this week at the VIP meeting which attracted a good-sized crowd of pension funds, endowments, foundations, fund of funds and people who want money from them (as well as various service people). Being an attendee for the past two years has been an interesting experience and I will admit that it was not nearly as much fun for me as when Geof and I shared the hosting duties. But, enough of a trip down memory lane.

VIP has some rules that attendees ‘swear’ to adhere to. And, at the risk of violating the “What is said/heard at VIP stays at VIP” oath, I wanted to share a few of my own observations:

• The plan sponsor community appears to be willing and able to reengage in the business of investing in real estate again. The question is: are they ready? And that varies from entity to entity.

• The mood was one of a realistic optimism but a clear recognition that we’re not ‘out of the woods.’

• While ‘concern’ may be too strong, there is an awareness of the possible three to five year ramifications of the mountain of money invested in and queued up for open-end core commingled funds.

• Things are not ‘business as usual’ whatever that will look like.

• While 95% of the managers surveyed believed that they communicated at least fairly well, the plan sponsor community, similarly and separately polled disagreed. However there was a real atmosphere of reasonableness from both camps-and maybe that is what the ‘next normal’ will look like-more like what we’ve been taught about deal-making in general-both parties have to walk away from the negotiating table feeling they have won. But, there needs to be an open, regular dialogue that includes formal reporting, throughout the relationship, and that type of communicating is a two-way street.

To finish up about VIP: While I knew a bunch of the attendees, I got to meet and talk with some folks I had never met before and as those of you who’ve been with me for a while know, that’s what makes things totally worthwhile for me.

Losing Touch

For the first time, this week, I lost my mobile phone. I won’t be getting a replacement until Monday so it’ll be four days. It’s been a funny sort of feeling, realizing what a lifeline, crutch, helpmate that device has become. But, as I think we may all admit, it’s also an umbilical cord of sorts which doesn’t let us get too far from, well, anywhere or anybody. And, there really aren’t many excuses for not being reachable. My computer still works but my magical USB connector to the Internet doesn’t; so it’s only when I can get a real connection (I’m noticing that more airports are offering free Wi-Fi…. is that like the coffee shops and other establishments? Airports feel you’ll use them more if they give you free Wi-Fi? (Just kidding, I think). Suffering from phonis-interruptus, I don’t think there’ll be any adverse impact on me, although having suspended the service the message installed by the provider is pretty abrupt:  this phone don't work no more.   But, after my first full cell-less day yesterday, I sort of liked it. It feels like I have a little more control over my existence and while no one likes to feel controlled by others, having some control over yourself, in today’s world, is, well, sort of priceless.

RCA:  U.S. Capital Trends/February 2011:  U.S. Markets Dominate Global Rankings

In it’s just released U.S. Capital Trends report, RCA states:

• US markets dominated the 2010 global rankings with 12

of the world’s top 30 markets by sales volume. 

• With $16.3 billion in sales, nearly triple the previous year’s total.

• New York was followed by Washington, DC (ranked six), Los Angeles (seven) and San Francisco (eight). 

• US markets not only dominated the top 30 rankings, but also registered the most observable year-over-year spikes in transaction volume.

And, as the legendary Sam Cooke sang, “Ain’t that good news, man, ain’t that news.”

Family idea. One of my good Forest Hills friend told me about something his daughter has launched. It’s called, Families in the Loop. While it’s Chicago-centric there are some very excellent ideas and resources that you can use wherever you are.

Hotel of the week: DaVinci Hotel, 56th Street, between Broadway and Eighth Avenue, New York. I am a little reluctant to share this one with you as it can only make this great little hotel more popular (and drive prices up). My wife found it for me online and I’ve already stayed there more than once. It’s 24 rooms. Very European. Not a place that many businessmen would choose to stay at (no gym, etc). But I like it very much. Nice people. Free wireless. An authentic Italian restaurant in the basement (also open to the public) called Joe G’s. Coffee and pastries in the morning. Great location. Clean. Interesting guests (many European). And, for Manhattan, truly an unbelievable bargain. 

Photo:  Daytona Beach, FL.  It was pretty darn cold for Florida that day and as we walked on the elevated boardwalk to an oceanfront restaurant I noticed these girls; they were the only ones on the entire beach.  They were huddled together against the cold and wind, committed to getting a tan (or at least telling their friends they were on the beach).  Funny, their bathing suits are almost the identical color. 

On the road....

Feb. 5-9: New York

Feb. 10-11: Chapel Hill, NC to be a judge in the University of North Carolina-Kenan Flagler Real Estate Challenge (Thanks to Dave Hartzell & Susan Drake, for the kind invite).

Feb. 12-15: West coast

Feb. 16-17: Des Moines, Iowa

Feb. 18-22: New York

Feb. 23-26: West coast

Feb. 27-Mar.1: Santa Monica, CA to attend NAREIM's Senior Executive Officer's Meeting (National Association of Real Estate Investment Managers).

Mar. 16-17: Washington, DC for the PREA Spring Conference

Mar. 30:  New York to attend IMN's inaugural Real Estate Investment & Search Consultants Congress

Apr. 13-15: Venice to attend the INREV Annual General Meeting

May 12-14: North Palm Beach, FL for the annual meeting of the Homer Hoyt Fellows.

June 9-10: London to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe.

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Keith Barket

 

My cousin, Jeffrey Smiley, passed away in 1988.  He was 47.  He was a captain in the Air Force and graduated from the Air Force Academy.  He flew B-52 bombers during the Vietnam War.  He contracted leukemia and died within a year.  His funeral, in a military cemetery outside Washington, DC is something I will never forget.  Jeff was not as successful in business as he was in the military.  But he was a nice guy; a gentle soul with a great sense of humor and playfulness.  I remember arriving at the gravesite for the cemetery.  There were some people there already.  But there were also a line of cars, entering the cemetery, as far as I could see.  I bet, at the end of the day, there were more than 200 people there.  The line of cars reminded me of that final scene in the movie, “Field of Dreams” or “Pay it Forward.”  Jeff touched a lot of people.

Last night, there was “A Celebration of Life” in New York to honor Keith Barket, the managing principal of Angelo Gordon who passed away just before Christmas.  Keith was 49.  There were about 200 people there.  The buzz as guests enjoyed drinks and h'ordeuvres was just like the buzz at any real estate get together only a little more so. It appeared to be somewhat of a who’s who of New York City commercial real estate although some folks travelled much further to be there.  They came to celebrate the life of one of their fallen brothers in arms.  The veterans among the throng had had more experience with dealing with the loss of a peer.  After all, we’ve been around more years.  What struck me was how many young real estate professionals there were.  The next generation of real estate movers and shakers-some of whom were already making their impact on the industry.  And there was solemnity in the buzz as well-another wake-up call to all to remind us of just how fragile this whole thing really is.  With accidents, it’s hard; “It was just her time.”  In battle, well, to me it’s all senseless, yet we don’t seem to be able to find ways to love rather than hate our fellow man.  But with illness; illness is something else.  Why do certain children die young?  But youth is a relative thing.  As, Bernard Baruch said, “I will never be an old man. To me, old age is always 15 years older than I am.”  But Keith, at 49, was way too young to be taken down and so quickly.  Is it better to pass into the night quickly, quietly or to linger, to fight, to keep believing you can beat whatever the heck it is that has grabbed on to you…and won’t let go.  When something like this happens, even to someone you only know casually or just by reputation, it’s time for some soul searching.  One think I’ve recently decided is to become an organ donor.  It was also prompted by a recent death-Christina Green, who died in that senseless shooting in Tucson.  I read an article the other day about how her parents found some solace in knowing that Christina’s organs were helping others stay alive.  And then, there’s simply the prioritization of things in life…

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, I didn’t know Keith Barket well but after listening to the speakers last night, I feel I know him better.  Please allow me to share some of the statements made by people ranging from John Angelo, Michael Gordon, Peter Linneman, Aliana Spungen, Dean Adler, Young Woo, Keith L. Barket (father) and Sol Barket (brother). 

·      “When something was successful, he didn’t want the credit.  But when something went wrong, he was the first to take responsibility….and learn from it.”

·      “In all the years, I never heard one person in the industry say anything bad about him.”

·      “He never put himself first.”

·      “He loved seeing those around him do well.  It’s not something he worked at…it’s just who he was.”

·      “He was happiest when he was working and having fun at the same time.”

·      “He had the ability to see the positive in people and not get caught up in their faults.”

·      “He was inclusive by nature and fed off the energy of others.”

·       “He helped me realize that arrogance has no place in life.”

·      “The only things that matter are integrity, honesty and how to conduct ourselves. Keith had integrity, was honest and conducted himself properly.”

·      Keith’s advice to a colleague:  “The really big decisions in life you have to rely on your own judgment.”

·      “He believed you always had to put yourself in your investor’s shoes; listen to the questions they’re asking; answer their questions in English, simply and directly, no mumbo jumbo.”

·      “He was infectiously enthusiastic.”

·      “He had the ability to forge friendships-real friendships and bring divergent groups together.”

·      “He never veered far from who he was.”

·      “He was a genuinely a good man and a fair person.”

·      “He challenged people he really cared about-it was a push/pull type thing-it was a waste not to be the best you can be, he always said, if you fall, you fall forward.”

·      “He lives on in the echo of his laughter.”

What will people say about us at our memorial services?

Restaurant of the week:  L'Etoile, Madison, WI.  A gem.  Thanks to Kev and Marissa who said this was the best meal they had on their entire two-month car trip, Portland to Portland.

Another restaurant:  Lola's, Cleveland, OH.  First time I've seen an iPad wine list.  Very cool....until someone who's had too much to drink drops it!

Final cool item:  Aweditorium.  Avery cool iPad ap that I learned about from a couple sitting next to me on the flight from Chicago to New York yesterday.  I hadn't been thinking about getting an iPad but this music ap may change my mind.

On the road....

Jan. 28:  New York; Umphrey's McGee in concert at the Best Buys (formerly Nokia) Theatre in Times Square (tickets still available)

Feb. 1-3:  Laguna Nigel, CA to attend IREI's Fifth Annual VIP Conference.

Feb. 7-9:  New York

Feb. 10-11:  Chapel Hill, NC to be a judge in the University of North Carolina-Kenan Flagler Real Estate Challenge (Thanks to Dave Hartzell, who runs the real estate program, for the kind invite).

Feb. 14-18:  West coast

Feb. 27-Mar.1:  Santa Monica, CA to attend NAREIM's Senior Executive Officer's Meeting (National Association of Real Estate Investment Managers).

Mar. 16-17:  Washington, DC for the PREA Spring Conference

Apr. 13-15:  Venice to attend INREV's Annual General Meeting

May 12-14: North Palm Beach, FL for the annual meeting of the Homer Hoyt Fellows (no secret handshake required!)

June 9-10:  London to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum.

 Photo:  Park Avenue, NYC, Jan 27, 2011

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Special Post: Going back to my dad's house

As many of you know, my dad, Manney Felix, died in November 2009 at age 92.  Yesterday, for the first time since, I went back to his house in Ormond Beach, FL.  Some members of our family are getting together this weekend for a ceremony at his gravesite, which now includes a marker.   I arrived in Daytona Beach on a van from the Orlando airport.  My dad’s wife and companion of 28 years, Eleanor, picked me up and drove me to their house.  I’d driven myself there many times over the years and it was a weird sensation, driving into their driveway and realizing that my father wasn’t there and wouldn’t ever be there.  Even though it was dark, I flashed back to seeing him sitting in his chair, on the driveway, waiting for me to pull in on my visits.  We walked in the front door and it was eerily quiet…not that the house was ever noisy but the quiet was overwhelming.   It’s a tidy three-bedroom house on a small manmade lake.  I haven’t yet walked into my father’s old room.  But I probably will today.  I’m sleeping on the pullout in the den and didn’t have a great night, having woken up this morning at about 4am after a shaky six-hour sleep.  Eleanor has a lot of photos of them and of my father around the house.  In the den is the flag that draped his coffin that day which she had had framed.  Next to it is a citation, signed by Barrack Obama, thanking my dad for his service to his country during the Second World War.  He never saw that citation and never will.  

It’s strange, what I’m feeling this morning.  The last time I was here I had been living with Eleanor and Dad for the better part of two months as his condition was first diagnosed and then confirmed.:  His body was failing, organ by organ. I was fortunate to have had a chance to spend a good amount of time with him during that difficult time.  But, as I sit here, at the dining room table while Eleanor and my brother Jay who arrived from Tucson in the middle of the night are enjoying their morning sleep, I can’t help remembering, as I look down the hall to my father’s room, the day, November 18, 2001, when I left to drive to the airport to pick Jay up; we had called him to say that the end was near.  My dad was struggling to breath.  Eleanor, who had been by his bedside continually, was there, holding his hand, putting cold washcloths on his face, doing anything to make him more comfortable.  The hospice people had given us a brochure, “Preparing for Death” which described the phases as someone, who is basically dying of natural causes, goes through and how to recognize them.  

He slipped in and out of the world and at that point couldn’t really talk anymore.  He was following the phases leading to death exactly.  Up until very close to the end, we knew he could hear and understand us (an amazing phenomenon that I first witnessed when I visited a long-time friend in 2003 who was in a coma; the nurse said, “Talk to him, he can hear you.”  I pulled up a chair at the end of his hospital bed and started talking with Dave about the camp reunion that we had jointly helped organize just a few months before.  I rambled on as he lay there, hooked up to tubes and machines.  But at one point, when I started talking about us putting the rock band we had at camp back together again, he started to twitch.  It was the most amazing thing. It frightened me a little And then, at that moment, I knew he could hear me and I continued to talk with him).   

When I left the house that day to pick Jay up, I walked into the bedroom and said to my dad, “See you, I’m just going to pick up Jay and will be back soon.”  I don’t know if he heard me but on the way to the airport, about 30 minutes after leaving the house, Eleanor called:  “He’s gone.”  Eleanor had nodded off on my father's bed and my father chose that time to leave. He wanted to go when he wanted to go and he didn't want either of us to be there when he sighed and breathed his final breath.  

I got to the airport and met Jay at baggage claim.  We hugged.  I told him, “Dad died about an hour ago.”  When we got back to the house, Dad had already been taken to the funeral home and the hospital bed was gone from his bedroom.  It looked so vacant.  One moment here.  The next gone with only our memories of him remaining.  

Sitting here this morning, in the dining room, writing this to you, it’s helping me cope once again with losing him.  Distance had played it’s magic for me and the poignancy of my dad no longer being around has been, well, different.  But being here, sitting in the chair that he used to sit in when he and Eleanor played computer golf or solitaire or the dining room table where they played Rummy 500 (Eleanor almost always won), seeing photos of him going back to his Army days and running up to his last years, of those when he had grown a beard and I used to call him, “Howard” (as in Hughes) and thinking how much I really miss him and how, when we depart, we are gone, not forgotten and I wish I knew if our soul survives.  I desperately want to believe that it does. 

Steve

Ormond Beach, Florida 

Photo:  Manney Felix, 90th birthday party, 2007

PREA "After Hours" & It's A Small, Small World....

This week I got to attend my first PREA 'After Hours' event in New York.  It's a series of smallish get togethers that the Pension Real Estate Association holds in different cities.  It's for members only and each one is a little different. This one had a well-regarded economist make a short presentation which left ample time for socializing with your peers.  I like it for a few reasons:  PREA is taking events to their members and not just sponsoring events where one has to travel to get there.  The attendance at this one was about 60 people which is a great size to be able to spend time with a number of people and have some substantive conversations.  We don't get many opportunities to gather this way and just like those events which have separate 'break-out' sessions for either Investors Only or Managers Only (like the upcoming VIP conference) it's great to exchange ideas and chat with friendly competitors as well.  Kudos to Gail Haynes and the crew at PREA.

Maybe this sounds old-fashioned but  I don't think people should bring their Blackberrys et al into meetings, leave them on the table in 'on mode' while there's a meeting going on.  I guess I just think it's sort of rude.  I know, what if something urgent comes up?  My answer is like this:  A number of years ago, when I was still fighting the idea of having a Blackberry, I was at an industry event.  I walked up to a fellow who was manning his company's booth (called 'stand' in Europe).  He was looking at his BB.  I asked him, "How do you like it? "  He said, "It's great.  I don't know how I lived without it."  I said, "You know, I just don't have that many urgent things happening each day to need to b continually online.  When I'm on the road, I work my emails in the morning and in the evening and no one has ever said that I was not responsive."  He said, straight-faced but with a touch of dry irony in his voice, "You know, I never realized how many urgent things I have going on before I got this thing."  Anyway......

A number of things have happened to me recently that just vividly reinforces how small the world is getting.  This is a wonderful thing as the closer together we get, the more understanding there will be.  As different cultures, in both business and personal things, learn more about each other and continue to respect each other, the result can only be a positive one for humanity.  Every chance I get, I try to meet new people, to listen to them, to talk with them, to learn about their challenges and to share some of mine.  In every, and I mean every, conversation with someone from a different country there is some similarity.  Forget about different countries; when I talk with people from different regions in the U.S. it's the same thing.  Our world is moving faster and faster and we're running harder and harder and working longer and longer to catch up and get in front of it.  But there's a price to be paid and that is that we are taking less and less time to interact on a face2face basis and, right here, right now, we are growing the next generation who will probably continue on this path.  However, after consulting  my Magic 8-Ball I predict that there will come a time, I don't think it'll be in my lifetime, when there will be a reversal of the current trends.  Look, while it's not the same, after reinventing the coffee shop business in America, there is a serious anti-Starbucks movement throughout America.  I am not a Starbucks customer because I don't drink much coffee (but I also feel that Starbucks tastes burnt).  But in the markets that Dunkin' Donuts exists I see more and more DD cups on the street and I believe this is the same in other markets where there are local operators.  No one ever said that a trend will last long-term.  Just as no one ever thought that the retailer giant, W.T. Grants would ever fail, leading the way to so many retailer demises, we are seeing something similar in the institutional/commercial real estate world and I, for one, don't think we are anywhere near the end of the beginning (as my colleague, Ed Casal, wrote one of his recent white papers, "Our View"...if you'd like a copy please let me know (steve@simplicate.com) with regard to the shake-out in all facets of our great industry.  I think this year some very interesting deals will happen, some firms will disappear or be swallowed up (No, I'm not talking about the obvious and highly publicized stuff going on with ING REIM) and others will grow out of their ashes....we're seeing it already.  As my former colleague, Geoffrey Dohrmann of IREI always ends his editorials, "Be careful.  It's a whacky, whacky world out there!).  Amen!!

On the road...

Jan. 24-31:  New York (including seeing Humphrey’s McGee in concert at the Best Buys (formerly Nokia) Theatre on Jan. 28.
Jan. 26:  A quick trip to Chicago
Feb. 1-3:  Dana Point, CA to attend IREI’s Fifth Annual VIP Conference.
Feb. 7-10:  New York
Feb. 11:  Chapel Hill, NC to be a judge in the University of North Carolina/Keenan-Flagler Real Estate Challenge
Feb. 14-18:  West coast

Feb. 27-Mar.1: Santa Monica, CA to attend NAREIM's Senior Executive Officer's Meeting (National Association of Real Estate Investment Managers)
Mar. 16-17:  Washington, DC for the PREA Spring Conference
Apr. 13-15:  Venice to attend INREV's Annual General Meeting
May 12-14:  North Palm Beach, FL for the annual meeting of the Homer Hoyt Fellows

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Experts talk, sunsets and a special 'Piano Man'

Thanks to the generosity of IMN's Todd Rosenberg,  I attended their eighth annual Real Estate Opportunity and Private Funds Conference this week.  There were a lot of people and I met a number of people for the first time which is something I love doing.  The attitude was clearly upbeat and not just window-dressing.  I listened to people telling me about a number of interesting niche plays and also a number of brand new companies that had been formed to take advantage of opportunities that are starting to surface.   Here are some of my take-aways that I'd like to share with you:

• 2010 Biggest Surprises
• Expected more job growth.
• More caution than expected.
• How quickly the stock market came back.
• Cap rates coming down as much as they did.
• Amount of real estate capital sitting on the sidelines.
• Disconnect between real estate fundamentals and the capital markets."
• "2010 was a year of surprises or no surprises at all."
• "Real estate is a big box that houses the economy (jobs)"
• Real estate economist:  "We see real recovery in 2013."
• "People ask us: 'What is going to be the next big thing that will drive job growth?  Does anybody really know?  One place it will take place is organic growth within corporations."
• "Our biggest problem today is 'risk aversion.'
• "Opportunity today?  Partner with strong regional builders.  Why?  They have command of tenants and buildings; they're survivors of the downturn; they have liquidity and they have command of the opportunities in their market."
• "Are deals being done?  Yes, in some specific sub-markets and specific asset types."
• A national title insurance guy told me this:  "We worked on more transactions of 'real' purchases in 4Q2010 than in the previous three quarters combined."  (SF Note:  Now, ain't that good news?)

This week I got to spend a couple of days at The Montage Hotel in Laguna Beach, CA (although I stayed directly across the street at a Travelodge where I stayed once before and is one of the best kept secrets about attending an industry event at Montage...oops, it's not a secret anymore). The Montage property is one of the most beautiful In the U.S. Last evening, as the setting sun offered a deep orange scarf on the ocean horizon, I stood, high above the Pacific and listened to the waves. There was no other sound. I have always loved the sound of the surf. My grandfather, Herman Silverman, taught me and my brothers how to swim in the Atlantic Ocean at Silver Point Beach Club in Atlantic Beach (Queens), New York. I haven't had a moment like this-just me and the sound of the night surf-for a long time. It is extremely special and peaceful and got me thinking of how wonderful the simple things in life are. Very!

Observation:  Some people on panels (and probably in any conversation) who used name-dropping to impress people are probably blind to the fact that most times it really doesn't impress people.

Panel suggestion:  When you are on a panel and it's your turn to speak and you agree with what's already been said by your fellow panelist (s), simply say, "I agree with Harry" and don't regurgitate the same thing just to hear yourself talk.  The audience will really appreciate it.

There are many ways to spend money to market your firm's products and/or services.  Advertising.  Event sponsorship.  Event attendance.  But how do you measure the result of spending that money?  How do you quantify the correlation between the cost and new revenues generated?  It ain't easy.  In fact, it may be almost impossible except in rare instances.  Retailers for years have had an easier way.  The coupon.  When you use a coupon to make a purchase, the retailer knows that you saw and ad  clipped it and brought it into the store to buy that particular item.  The coupons are coded so they know which publication you got it from.  Things have been changing since Al Gore invented the Internet with the use of easily available 'Discount Codes" but that's a more complex discussion for another day.  In one of my business development jobs, where I was marketing a service, we analyzed what it took to land a new client.  We found it took, on average, seven face to face meetings with a prospective client before they agreed to sign up.  But we also determined that it took at least 4 meetings to determine the likelihood of that firm becoming a client.  We resolved to find a way to reduce both the 7 and the 4.  But it's not that simple and, what if you're wrong?  

In one of the songs on my first CD I sang 'Sometimes I think I think too much.' And I believe that to be true. But I've been thinking this week of the many times in my life when I didn't think enough...when I made decisions too quickly, when I had knee jerk reactions to things, when I got pissed off and even angry when someone didn't agree with me...after all I was always right, right?  But I'm fortunate in that I feel that while sometimes it's two steps forward and one step back (sort of Springsteen) I have been making progress. I was reminded this week of something a friend told me a number of years ago-maybe I've even written it in this column: "You don't have to be going straight-just forward." How simple. How true.  I wrote it down in my diary...again.

Real deal musician of the week:  David Allen Baker plays piano and sings virtually any song you want in the lobby of The Montage (it's open to the public and he has a loyal local following).  You probably all know the Billy Joel song, 'Piano Man', right?  Well, before breaking through, Billy was a piano man at a bar in Los Angeles and that is what that song is about.  David is a true piano man; one of the most talented, versatile and sensitive players I have ever heard in my entire life.  He is also a very nice guy.  I made one request:  Jackson Browne's legendary tune, Doctor My Eyes.  David's personal, heartfelt arrangement is giving me goose bumps as I type this early Friday morning.  If you are ever in the area, check to see if he's playing.  I guarantee you will walk away saying, "Man what are you doing here."  Fortunately, for many people, he is there!

On the road...
Jan. 22-23:  Ormond Beach, FL for the unveiling of my dad's headstone.
Jan. 24-31:  New York (including seeing Humphrey’s McGee in concert at the Best Buys (formerly Nokia) Theatre on Jan. 28.
Jan. 26:  A quick trip to Chicago
Feb. 1-3:  Dana Point, CA to attend IREI’s Fifth Annual VIP Conference.
Feb. 7-10:  New York
Feb. 11:  Chapel Hill, NC to be a judge in the University of North Carolina/Keenan-Flagler Real Estate Challenge
Feb. 14-18:  West coast

Feb. 27-Mar.1: Santa Monica, CA to attend NAREIM's Senior Executive Officer's Meeting (National Association of Real Estate Investment Managers)
Mar. 16-17:  Washington, DC for the PREA Spring Conference
Apr. 13-15:  Venice to attend INREV's Annual General Meeting
May 12-14:  North Palm Beach, FL for the annual meeting of the Homer Hoyt Fellows

Photo:  Last night.  The Montage Hotel, Laguna Beach, CA.  Just before the IMN cocktail reception began (This photo taken with my BlackBerry doesn't really do justice to the colors but it's the best I could do).

These are my views and not that of my employer.