A New Wall of Capital?

First, just a snipet from RCA's Capital Trends Report published yesterday.  As I travel around, what RCA is reporting is clearly exactly what is happening in the market.  The new "Wall of Capital" is certainly at the 'core' of the matter and while many institutional investors feel that by taking the 'road most travelled' they are taking a safe path through the real estate jungle, it remains to be seen if their hunches play out.  However, one thing which cannot be minimized:  cash flow is a good thing.

"Of the many trends fueling the commercial real estate market’s current momentum, the explosive growth in sales of higher-priced properties offers one of the clearest expressions of investors’ rising confidence and appetite for selective risk-taking. Year-to-date transaction volume for properties priced at $25 million and higher has soared 126% compared with the same period last year, handily surpassing the broader market’s already-impressive year-to-date gains. In the lowest price tier, for properties transacting between $2.5 and $5.0 million, activity was generally more stable through the downturn but has been lackluster in the extent of its recovery."

A few weeks ago I wrote something that prompted a friend who's been reading this blog for a number of years to write to me.  Thanks for sharing this, Bob. You certainly have gotten me thinking about a bunch of stuff.

The economic malaise in Japan and the United States was prevalent at ULI.  In fact, the new issue of Emerging Trends says we have entered the “Age of Less”.  It’s a good follow on to a NYT article that termed this the “Period of Austerity.”   One researcher noted that the attitudes (at the end of recession) were very similar and very dark.  He pointed out that it’s always this way after downturns and that has certainly been the case for the five or six I’ve waded through. 

On the other hand, and what gives me pause, is the article in Time magazine by Fareed Zakaria, “How to Restore the American Dream.”  Read it closely and note how global competition has hollowed out the working class manufacturing jobs (leaving only low paying service sector).  You can also find evidence that we may lose the immigration war (not our Mexican border war; this is the fight to attract educated immigrants).  You will see the downside to productivity gains and quarterly earnings.  Finally, you will read that even our better paying jobs can be exported (did you know a few schools in Chicago are paying teachers in India to tutor schoolchildren via the Internet? It’s cheaper than hiring someone locally). 

It seemed in the 80s that the only blue-collar jobs you could not shipped overseas were working class construction jobs.  Unfortunately, politicians effectively exported even those jobs by allowing unbridled illegal immigration from Mexico, South America and Europe.  All of this leads me to believe we are in for a period of major adjustment as the borderless global market engulfs us and we de-lever our Federal, State and Municipal budgets.

I don’t think the answer is high-speed railroads (there may be a few corridors but I assure you that there is no reason to travel at high speed between Chicago and St. Louis) or more expensive-education.  Really, how many college graduates can we accommodate and how can these kids afford it – the President suggested we forgive college debts paid on time for 20 years.  It’s hard to believe that this Lake Woebegone attitude, where everyone can be above average, is the solution. 

Frankly, it sounds like my grandchildren’s school, where even the losers get trophies.

Recently we had some student's from Baylor University in our office.  They were hosted by my colleague (and Baylor alum) Russ Bates who set up a case-study type day.  Russ asked me to talk with the students about careers in real estate.  When I discovered that this group was not really focused on real estate I decided not to either.  So I asked them what it was that they thought I could tell them that would be valuable.  I suggested just a few things which I believe are good to remember no matter whether you go into real estate or not:  (1)  Keep your nose clean.  It's a very small world. (2) Do an internship (and also work for) only a reputable company.  (3)  Nurture and respect your network.  Don't send out blast emails and don't be in contact just when you need something from them.  (4)  Remember that the people you meet when you're young will be growing up with you in your industry and one day you will all find yourselves as senior people.  Cherish this evolution. 

Last week I was poking around movies on cable and found "The Great Buck Henry" with John Malkovich. While watching it I had a sneaking suspicion which was only confirmed as the end credits were rolling: the movie was based on the life of the mentalist, The Amazing Kreskin. My mother used to own a travel agency. Kreskin was one of her best clients. At that time, in addition to being a regular on Johnny Carson (who always got a real kick out of him) and doing club dates, Kreskin had his own TV show which was taped weekly in Toronto. He tried to limit the number of nights away from home so he flew to Toronto very early on the morning of the taping. I was playing in a band full time (six nights a week) and to pick up some extra money I became Kreskin's 'driver.' Many night's I'd just stay up after playing a gig and pick him up at his home at around 5am. One day, we're driving to the airport (he lived in Essex County, NJ) but usually flew from one of the NY airports. So he's asleep and we're just passing LaGuardia Airport on the way to JFK. He wakes up and asks me where we are. "We just passed LGA."  He says, "I think I'm flying from LGA. Let me check my ticket." Sure enough, he was right and as I'm making a U-turn he says, "See, I told you I was a mentalist." But, on another trip, when I asked him if he would perform one of his things on me he said he didn't do it on family members or friends. Anyway, that's my Amazing Kreskin story. He's a very nice guy.

Photo:  Chicago, IL

On the road....

Dec. 6 & 7: Frankfurt am Main where I'll be moderating a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe

Dec. 8: Mainhattan to attend the INREV investor platform and committee meetings (I'm on their membership committee)

Dec. 16-21:  The Big Apple

Dec. 20:  New York:  Tentative:  The Second Not-Really-Annual Institutional Real Estate World Buy Your Own Drink Holiday Get Together.  I will keep you posted.
Feb. 1-3: Dana Point, CA to attend IREI's VIP Conference

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Logan, Ernie, David & PERE

              

You guys are really special.  My friend Charlie, whose grandson Logan (last week I mistakenly identified Logan as Charlie's nephew) told me that so far he has received $400 from readers of this column (and maybe someone to whom you passed it along to) to help defray the expenses of Logan's pending bone marrow transplant.  I received this email yesterday from Logan’s grandmother:

Dear Steve:

I can't thank you enough for writing about Logan in your blog. I'm sure Charlie has already told you that we have received donations as a result of your having written about him. The generosity that has been shown by people who don't know Logan, or for that matter any of us, is overwhelming. Rich and Nancy have been so blown away by the compassion shown by people that they have never met that they can't find the words to describe their gratitude. I, too, have found it very difficult to sufficiently express my thanks to those who have opened up their hearts to my son, my grandson and their family.

This is a very frightening time for all of us, but knowing that there is such a huge amount of support out there, helps us to move forward each day. As my son so eloquently expressed..."His [Logan's] strength is magnified by the prayers and love of others." I think that would stand true for all of us.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart,

Pattie

Early in the evening (6pm) on November 4th, Ernie Hendrickson will be making his first appearance in New York City. The venue is the Rockwood Music Hall, 196 Allen Street (http://www.rockwoodmusichall.com). Unfortunately I'll be on the road that night and won't be able to be there but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't go. Ernie is a good friend and part of the band that has played on both my first and second CD (due out early 2011). More than that, Ernie is a very talented singer/songwriter who has been getting some good national radio play of his latest album, Walking With Angels.  A couple of the testimonials Ernie has received:  "In today's overly produced pop music market, Ernie Hendrickson is a diamond in the rough; born of heart, soul and grit." "Dark and pretty songs. Ernie Hendrickson is finding a niche in the indie folk Americana segment. He is a storyteller like Harry Nillson in a country mood."  If you go, please say "Howdy" to Ernie for me.

 I was very sorry to hear that David Mark, the longtime managing editor of Real Estate Alert, passed away last Saturday from complications from his second bout with leukemia. Although I’ve known the people at Harrison Scott since they started publishing in the early 1990’s I only got to know David over the past few years.  He was a passionate journalist who relished a ‘scoop.’  Many of you knew him, or he knew you or of you.   David was only 42 and leaves behind his wife and two young children.  Very sad.

Finally, some real estate stuff.  I attended the PERE Forum in NewYork this week.  I wanted to share some of my notes and quotes from the conference, which I hope you find worthwhile:

·     The only thing the real estate industry needs to change is our own expectations.

·     Co-investment funds, for large investors, will become popular….for a while.

·     Investors have become frustrated paying fees on committed but uninvested capital.

·     The name of the game today is:  execution.

·     Fee structures should be changed:  lower management fee; higher carry.

·     If you act like a sheep you’re going to get fleeced (investors with herd mentality).

·     Testifying before Congress in 1967, Nobel Laureate Paul Samuelson proclaimed "Most portfolio decision makers should go out of business - take up plumbing, teach Greek, or help produce the annual GNP by serving as corporate executives."

·     If you think you’re going to get 20% returns….forget it.

·     Some large investors (China, Canada) are doing limited JV’s.  This is the way they will invest….for a time.

·     Club Deals (5-6 investors):  Do they have the same investment strategy?  The same exit strategy?

·     It’s hard to see how large funds, operated by investment banks, will make a comeback.

·     Boutique fund managers, with a JV mindset, will be successful.

·     Capital market flows

o  Open-end core funds have attracted $7.28Bn YTD

o  Public REITS have attracted $17Bn YTD

o  Closed-end funds have closed on $5.28Bn YTD

·     Quick-tally audience question:  Which developed markets present the most attractive investment opportunities today?

o  Asia                39%

o  U.S.                 33%

o  Europe         28%

On the road….

Nov. 2-4:  Various places in the Lone Start State
Nov. 5: The City of the Big Shoulders

Dec. 6 & 7: Frankfurt am Main where I'll be moderating a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe
Dec. 8: Mainhattan to attend the INREV investor platform and committee meetings (I'm on their membership committee)

Feb. 1-3: Dana Point, CA to attend IREI's VIP Conference

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Where are they now?

This morning someone left at USA Today outside my hotel room door.  I didn’t request it and really don’t read it (actually I don’t think it’s a paper you read, you sort of just look through it and I give the founder credit for recognizing early the era of ‘the short intention span.”) But there was a story called, “Where are they now?” which reported on the whereabouts of such entertainers as Rick Springfield, Vanilla Ice and the girl that played “Blossom” on TV.  But the headline is what got me thinking about what’s going on in our industry.  Almost not a day goes by anymore without some announcement about someone leaving a firm to either join another one or start their own.  And many of these are pretty established people and while not senior citizens by a long shot, they are senior people in the industry.  As I’ve written before, the institutional/commercial real estate industry is going through a metamorphosis and while the foundation of income-producing real estate is still the same and some of the long-standing firm names, particularly the real estate families are, for the most part, solid as ever, there’s a lot of disturbances in the people field.  Btw, congratulations to my good friend and good friend to the industry, Jeff Barclay, who was named to head a new core real estate business at Goldman Sachs.  

On October 17, 2010, one of the page one stories in the Sunday New York times had the headline, “Japan Goes from Dynamic to Disheartened.” More than just describing the huge fall from the mountaintop that the Japanese economy has experienced, it talks about the eroding of belief, especially in young people.  There has been concern that the U.S., and other developed countries risk themselves slipping into a Japanification.  Some characteristics clearly exist in America today with consumers refuse to consume, corporations hold back on investments and banks sitting on cash.  The erosion in belief of young Japanese somewhat be summarized in a few pull quotes from the article. “Scaled-back ambitions.”  “Crisis of confidence.”  “High-flying ambitions have been shelved, replaced by weariness and fear of the future and an almost stifling air of resignation.”  “Loss of gumption.” “Consumers see it as irrational or even foolish to buy or borrow.”  “Business people have been forced to invent new ways to survive in an economy where prices and profits only go down, not up.” 

This last comment is poignant as the Fed is now talking about new ways to stimulate the economy (stimulus has become a bad word.)  One noted economist is quoted in the article as saying, “We’re not Japan.  In America, the bet is still that we will somehow find ways to get people spending and investing again. “   Bet?  Somehow find a way?  Doesn’t make me feel too confident.

There's a kid named Logan in New Jersey who is the nephew of one of my oldest and dearest friends (and one of the best writers I've ever known personally) Logan has a chromosomal defect known as hypo diploid which means he has less than the number of chromosomes with full genetic composition that normal humans should have. This complicates his leukemia and worsens his prognosis. Logan’s case is rare.  This week a panel of doctors at Children's Hospital in Philadelphia determined the necessary course of treatment will be a bone marrow transplant. Once the family is tested, if necessary there will be worldwide search for a suitable donor.

As we all know, any medical treatment, let alone something of this nature, is extremely expensive.  Logan's family is not rich.  They could use a little help.  Whatever you can find in your heart will be greatly appreciated by Logan and his family.   Contributions to the "Logan James Parker Fund" can be sent c/o Charlie Oliver, 57 Ballantine Road, Middletown, NJ 07748.  Thanks.  

My brother Jay sent me this.  

After every flight, UPS pilots fill out a form, called a 'gripe sheet,' which tells mechanics about problems with the aircraft. The mechanics correct the problems, document their repairs on the
form, and then pilots review the gripe sheets before the next flight. Never let it be said that ground crews lack a sense of humor. Here are some actual maintenance complaints submitted by

UPS' pilots (marked with a P) and the solutions recorded (marked with an S) by maintenance engineers. By the way, UPS is the only major airline that has never, ever, had an accident.. 

P: Left inside main tire almost needs replacement. 
S: Almost replaced left inside main tire.. 

 
P: Test flight OK, except auto-land very rough. 
S: Auto-land not installed on this aircraft.  
P: Dead bugs on windshield. 
S: Live bugs on back-order. 
 
P: Auto pilot in altitude-hold mode produces a 200 feet per minute descent.. 
S: Cannot reproduce problem on ground. 

P: Evidence of leak on right main landing gear. 
S: Evidence removed. 

P: DME volume unbelievably loud. 
S: DME volume set to more believable level. 

P: Friction locks cause throttle levers to stick. 
S: That's what friction locks are for. 
 
P: IFF inoperative in OFF mode. 
S: IFF always inoperative in OFF mode. 
 
P: Suspected crack in windshield. 
S: Suspect you're right. 

P: Number 3 engine missing. 
S: Engine found on right wing after brief search 
 
P: Aircraft handles funny. 
S: Aircraft warned to straighten up, fly right and be serious. 
 
P: Target radar hums. 
S: Reprogrammed target radar with lyrics.  
P: Mouse in cockpit. 
S: Cat installed. 
 
And the best one for last -- 
 
P: Noise coming from under instrument panel. Sounds like a midget pounding on something with a hammer. 
S: Took hammer away from midget

On the road....

Oct. 18-21: Gotham
Oct. 22:  The First State (aka 'The Chemical Capital of the World)
Oct. 26-27: The City So Nice, They Named It Twice (PERE New York Forum) 

Nov. 2-4:  Various places in the Lone Start State
Nov. 5: The City of the Big Shoulders
Dec. 6 & 7: Frankfurt am Main where I'll be moderating a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe
Dec. 8: Mainhattan to attend the INREV investor platform and committee meetings (I'm on their membership committee)

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Always leave something on the table for the other guy

First, a correction. Last week's photo was of a very tall building in Chicago which I incorrectly referred to as the Sears Tower. As I was reminded by one of our readers who works for the current owner, it's called The Willis Tower. My apologies.


One of the most uplifting things I think I've ever seen was watching the live feed of the rescue of the 33 Chilean miners this week. The funny thing was that the mechanism used to bring them up looked like it was designed after a fishing reel and seeing the hand-written marks on the side, tracking the progress of the capsule, made my heart race. I think a lot of us felt the same way.

IPE Real Estate published an article which asked a few Europen pension funds about manager behavior during the dark days (I sure hope they're over). Here are some of the highlights:

1. Transparency and communication was adequate
2. Questions remain unanswered about continuing to buy assets ahead of the crisis.
3. Communication and transparency varied significantly
4. Managers that were slower to address problems had fewer solutions
5. Proactive managers have earned trust and are likely to benefit from future investments
6. Only managers that have been transparent and earned trust will raise future capital
7. Investors can differentiate between market-wide problems and fund-level problems
8. Would have liked quicker information about falling valuations
9. Prefer managers that are not too eager to invest capital
10. Fund of fund managers have a dual communication role to play

These are not at all surprising although one pension fund admitted that it's easy to criticize in hindsight. But it seems to me that there are simply some basis 'rules of the road' when it comes to the fiduciary role that an institutional real estate investment manager should follow, regardless. I believe these are:

A. No surprises (If there's good news and bad news, give the bad news first).
B. Report news early and accurately
C. Be proactive. Don't wait for your client to ask questions. Anticipate them and offer answers first.

Robert Tischman, the founder of what became Tishman Speyer Properties died this week. In his obituary I found this on his philosophy on deal making: “Always leave something on the table for the other guy.” Some of the people I've worked had this same philosopy, others, one in particular, always wanted more. "Go back to that landlord and try to get him down from $2.92/sq.ft  to $2.84." (this was big space, many years ago). Then, when you got that, he wanted to squeeze more. Believe it or not I had to seach high and low on the web to find some reference to this but finally found it in the book, Negotiating for Dummies. "It's about closing the deal in a way that makes both sides feel good about the outcome. Both sides should feel as though they achieved something that is workaable and that everyone involved in carrying out the deal will want to make it work." All of us know that there are lots of kinds of deals: leasing a space, buying a building, negotiating fees, negotiating employment agreements or selling a product or service. If and when you run up against someone who says, "This is the deal, there's no negotiating it", how does that make you feel? Some will get up from the table, head for the door and sort of expect the other party to say, "Now, wait a minute." Sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. But if you know, in your heart, that you're ready to walk away from the deal, it's a powerful negotiating tool. Others won't say a word but will never do business with you again.  So, my hat is off to you Mr. Tischman. Maybe your philosophy is one for the ages, but hopefully not.

Books of the week:
Emerging Market Real Estate Investment: Investing in China, India and Brazil. This recently released book was written by my good friend, David Lynn and his colleague, Tim Wang of ING Clarion. It's gotten some excellent reviews and endorsements such as this one: "A compelling argument for investing in real estate opportunities in China, India and Brazil. This is the most comprehensive discussion of topics and investment strategies that real estate investors must consider when evaluating emerging markets.” With more and more interest in these markets it seems like a 'must read' for every real estate investment professional. Congratulations you guys.

Radically Simple written by Rozanne Gold, the wife of a good friend, Michael Whiteman (one of the world's most influential restaurant consultant) which redefines the idea of simplicity in the kitchen.


On the road....
Oct. 18-21: Gotham
Oct. 22:  The First State (aka 'The Chemical Capital of the World)
Oct. 26-27: The City So Nice, They Named It Twice (PERE New York Forum)
Nov. 5: The City of the Big Shoulders
Dec. 6 & 7: Frankfurt am Main where I'll be moderating a panel at the PERE Forum-Europe
Dec. 8: Mainhattan to attend the INREV investor platform and committee meetings (I'm on their membership committee)

Photo: Two random dudes spotted indulging themselves on what may be the best milkshake ever created at the Burger Bar in Macy's, Union Square, San Francisco.

These are my views and not that of my employer.

.

Is past behavior an indication of future behavior?

If there was any question in anyone's mind about how difficult it is to raise institutional capital for real estate private equity funds my conversations with industry leaders at the PREA conference this week left no doubt.  It does appear that many institutional investors feel that they are three-quarters of the way there in dealing with legacy issues and while some investors are starting to put new money out, albeit the bulk of it to managers with which they have an existing relationship, the sentiment seemed more positive than in quite a while.  The way investors are going to underwrite managers going forward is also interesting, although not the least bit surprising.  Key will be performance, the manager's discipline during the downturn,  their communication with their LP's.  It also sounds like there will be more and more focus on what is to me the essence of the real estate industry, the people.  We all want to believe we know what type of people we're doing business with and about the organization as a whole.  I thought something that someone said on this subject was particularly poignant:  "How can you underwrite how people behave when they're backed into a corner?"   

I personally experienced this when I was running a large RTC contractor office in the early 1990's and we were dealing with a lot of defaulted borrowers (formerly known to the banks as 'customers').  While the disclaimer "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results" is plastered all over investment prospectuses, I wonder, given human behavior, if a person's past behavior is truly indicative of their future behavior.  People can learn from their mistakes but as we are witnessing in many ways in the U.S. now, political, economic and business it seems like there's an awful lot of people behaving in ways that got them into trouble (and caused problems for many Americans) all over again.  I guess we'll just have to watch and wait to see what happens.

Leadership:

This is an excerpt from an interview with a CEO which I found enlightening.  I hope you do too:

"At the risk of oversimplifying you find at least four personalities, and you never find all four of those personalities in a single person.

• You need to have somebody who is a strategist or visionary, who sets the goals for where the organization needs to go.
• You need to have somebody who is the classic manager — somebody who takes care of the organization, in terms of making sure that everybody knows what they need to do and making sure that tasks are broken up into manageable actions and how they’re going to be measured.
• You need a champion for the customer, because you are trying to translate your product into something that customers are going to pay for. So it’s important to have somebody who empathizes and understands how customers will see it. I’ve seen many endeavors fail because people weren’t able to connect the strategy to the way the customers would see the issue.
• Then, lastly, you need the enforcer. You need somebody who says: “We’ve stared at this issue long enough. We’re not going to stare at it anymore. We’re going to do something about it. We’re going to make a decision. We’re going to deal with whatever conflict we have.”

You very rarely find more than two of those personalities in one person. I’ve never seen it. And really great teams are where you have a group of people who provide those functions and who respect each other and, equally importantly, both know who they are and who they are not. Often, I’ve seen people get into trouble when they think they’re the strategist and they’re not, or they think they’re the decision maker and they’re not.

You need a degree of humility and self-awareness. Really great teams have team members who know who they are and who they’re not, and they know when to get out of the way and let the other team members make their contribution."

The Deal World:  RCA reported this week that they are seeing marked improvements in the availability and terms of commercial real estate mortgage credit. Other characteristics are noticeably relaxed loan-to-value targets, unsecured facilities, acquisition lines, CMBS securities and even construction financing. RCA also points out that deal activity illustrates the diversity of lenders in the market as well as the attractive rates.  These are very good signs for the industry, although as history shows us it's when commercial real estate lending gets too competitive that underwriting standards deteriorate.  Oh well, it's just another cycle in the on-going saga of commercial real estate.  Will it end up looking like the rest or will it be different? Only time will tell.  But, while discipline doesn't seem to be a very important word any longer in 'real life' maybe it will become more important in 'real estate' as we've already lived through, and are still suffering the consequences of lack of discipline.

Photo:  Moon over the Sears Tower, Chicago

A friend sent me this amazing photo essay that is of particular interest to us real estate types.  http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/09/human_landscapes_in_sw_florida.html. 

On the road....

Oct. 11-21:  Gotham

Oct. 26-27:  The City So Nice, They Named It Twice (PERE New York Forum) 

Nov. 5:  The City of the Big Shoulders
Dec. 8:  Mainhattan (no typo)  (INREV Committee Meetings)

These are my views and not that of my employer.

Lessons Learned!?

The most popular phrase in the investment world today seems to be “Lessons Learned.”  It’s a good one.  It’s a humble one.  It suggests that those on both sides of the fence, investors and investment managers have realized that there are lessons to have been learned from the events, decisions and behaviors of post-Lehmann era (or error).  What will be interesting to observe is if these lessons learned guide investment decisions going forward.  It seems to be universally accepted that we will not see a real estate investment environment that resembles the last ‘boom time” for many, many, many years.  So there shouldn’t be the same temptations or will there?

But, I guess some people don’t ever learn lessons.  I’m talking about the recently revealed scandal involving the home foreclosure process in America.  If what is being written in the press is proven to be true then it is a sad, sad commentary on those running some very large and well known mortgage companies, some of them parts of big banking institutions who should know better by now.  Once again, it’s the general public who have been shafted by large institutions in their quest for swift resolution to defaults on mortgage payments which in part had been precipitated by bad things that big institutions did.  And those who have had their homes taken from them, those who are unable to pay their mortgages because they’ve lost their jobs, those people and their families should get some type of restitution if it’s proven that the process by which their foreclosure was handled and their life was turned upside down, was tainted.  Isn’t anyone watching the store anywhere anymore? Why can’t people try a little harder to work thing out?

We all couldn’t wait for 2009 to end so that things would improve.  Well, as we head into the fourth and final quarter of 2010, I lot of folks I talk to are saying the same thing about this year.  Things are sluggish in the investment real estate world and as general optimists we all believe that things will improve with the dropping of the Waterford crystal ball in Times Square.  A lot of investors are still sitting on the sidelines.  Many investment committees and boards are still not sure whether the time is right to start investing again and if so, what to invest in.  Those that are contrarians have been investing, realizing that there is opportunity out there.  But going along with the crowd is much easier in most things in life and, as with Umphrey McGee’s album, there is “Safety in Numbers.”  Maybe what people seek are some signs of stability before they start writing checks again.  I hesitate to use the word ‘normal’ because I don’t know what that is anymore.  Does anyone?

 Photo. From his look, I think Sean knows something that we don't know (Photo by Patricia McMahon).

On the road....

Oct. 4-7:  The City By The Bay (PREA Conference)
Oct. 12-15:  City of Magnificant Distances (ULI Fall Conference)
Oct. 18-21:  Gotham

Oct. 26-27:  The City So Nice, They Named It Twice (PERE New York Forum) 

Nov. 5:  The City of the Big Shoulders
Dec. 8:  Mainhattan (no typo)  (INREV Committee Meetings)

These are my thoughts and not that of my employer.