These Days

Walking the streets of New York you might think it’s just a typical January with stores running sales like they do each year. But it’s not. Manhattan looks more like an outlet center than a retailing Mecca. Signs offering 10-80% off and there are few shops that don’t at least have a “Sale” sign in them. The “Anti-Starbucks” movement continues to be evident with more and more Dunkin’ Donuts visible. Taxi drivers who have their finger on the pulse better than most tell me that business is way down. “People are frightened. They don’t know what will happen next; whether they’ll lose their jobs. They are being very, very careful with their money. But, it’s going to get better. The things that President Obama has promised will take time but things will get better.”

With most Wall Street firms getting close to issuing their bonuses another chapter will be closed..we just don’t know the ending yet. It was many years before I learned that investment bankers generally get paid a modest base and ‘bank’ on their bonuses (which as we know from what we read have been humongous over the past so many years). And, as banks continue to show their contempt for both the government bailout money and the public, more and more people are losing their jobs. But, having lost my job several times in my career, there are different ways employers can handle what I believe is the most difficult thing for a manager to do: fire someone. Sadly, I’ve heard too many stories of companies ‘letting people go’ in unconscionable ways-showing no compassion but simply reacting to needing to protect and perhaps increase the bottom line (NOW) by one of only to ways: generate more revenue or cut expenses (and generating revenue is not so easy right now). It’s a shame that our work culture has come to this and while it is understandable from a corporate standpoint it isn’t, to me anyway, from a human standpoint.

America, the land of opportunity, has also become a land where we don’t look out for each other like some other places in the world; countries where there is a respect for the individual, both as a worker and as a person ages. There will be more firings and more bankruptcies (I was involved in making the first Circuit City Superstore deal in Hampton, VA in the mid-80’s and now they’re going out of business, closing more than 500 stores, as will more and more retailers in February). These are difficult times. Oh, btw, have you heard or seen the Hyundai commercial where they say that if you buy a car now and lose your income they’ll take the car back? I know there are probably oodles of legal language in the purchase agreement but even the concept of this is….well, amazing.

Don't forget to vote: The Global PERE Awards is near the deadline. Some of the nominated firms and individuals are neck and neck. Your vote counts! P.S. There's a great feature piece on their website. If you haven't subscribed you can for free.

I offer you the following ‘management tip’ from the blog written my friend in the UK, Trevor Gay, who is a consultant and author on ‘Simplicity.’
“I am often asked to give practical tips that managers can follow to implement Simplicity. It's a brilliant question that challenges me because I guess anyone can say ‘lets simplify things’ but busy managers are looking for practical tips about what they can do personally to simplify the workplace.

Based on my own management experience there are numerous things managers can do and here are 9 for starters.

1. When you have written your next report ask two people who are paid significantly less than you to tell you if they understood it.

2. Make time in your diary every week to ask a customer to tell you in their own words about their recent experience with your company

3. At your team meeting every week or every month depending on the frequency of meetings, ask someone to do a five minute presentation called “My big simplicity idea for our team is …..” (PowerPoint not allowed)

4. Invite a customer to read three e-mails or letters you have sent in the previous week and ask them to give you feedback about the language you used

5. Invite two 16-year old students to attend your team meeting and ask them to give the team members honest feedback at the end of the meeting about the language used

6. Find a report about absolutely anything of two sides of 8.5 x 11 paper. Send the report to a colleague and ask him/her to return it to you reduced to one side of 8.5x11. Judge for yourself whether one side is adequate to get the message across

7 Ask one of your team members to write a story on one side of 8.5x11 about a complicated problem in your department/team. The language must be aimed at an audience of secondary school students (11-16 year olds). Send the story to a local schoolteacher and ask for feedback from the students at his/her school

8. In your next written report of more than 200 words do not use any acronyms

9. Send a report you have written to 2 cleaners and 2 junior Clerical staff. Ask the four of them to rate your report on a scale of 0 to 10.

0=I didn't understand it at all
10=I understood it completely

Think about how you can improve your score in your next report. By the way, if you score 40 points congratulations you are a Simplicity guru."


Happy Birthday Jay and Deb.


Steve

Restaurant of the week: Hill Country BBQ, 30 W. 26th Street, New York. A fun place with live music. Best to go with a group of 6-10.


Where I'll be:

Jan. 26: Chicago, IL
Jan. 27: Madison, WI
Jan. 28: Washington, DC
Jan. 29: San Francisco, CA
Jan. 30: Sacramento, CA
Feb. 2: Portland, OR
Feb. 17: Atlanta, GA
Feb. 18: Raleigh, NC
Feb. 19: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kennan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Feb. 22-29: Vacation in Mexico….totally offline!
Mar. 10-13: Cannes to attend MIPIM, host the second annual MIPIM Summit TV show (March 12-Invitation Only) and attend the INREV seminar.
Mar.24: New York to moderate a panel at the IGlobal Forum Real Estate Private Equity Summit
Mar. 25-26: Washington DC to attend PREA's Spring Conference
April 1: Champaign-Urbana, IL to attend my son’s DMA (Doctor of Musical Arts) recital.
April 23-25: Athens, Greece (not Georgia) for INREV’s Annual General Meeting and Conference

Photo: Downtown Cleveland, Ohio


These are my personal views and not that of my employer.

Flight 1549, Violinist in the Metro

<<<<<Who knows where this is?

Sunset from my office>>>>>

The photos of the passengers on the wings of US Airways plane that landed gently on the Hudson River were surreal. Maybe for most who fly, the thought of a water landing is pretty remote-or at least we want to believe that it's remote. But today, those on that plane found out that it can happen and that under certain circumstances everything can turn out fine. It's too soon to really know exactly what happened but what is known is that the veteran pilot coolly and calmly set the craft down and the crew and passengers handled the situation in an orderly way. It's good to see something that could have been a terrible disaster (imagine if this had happened after sundown or if the pilot couldn't control the plane and it hit a building in New York-anything could have happened) ended happily. Tomorrow, when I board the plane for Florida, I wonder if I'll feel any differently.

Well the depression has even hit Dubai so it must be really real. Construction of the world’s tallest tower has been delayed as the developer who is readjusting their plans “to better reflect the current market trends and match supply with demand.” It’s a novel idea, matching supply with demand, don’t you think? It’s something that for a long time drove the real estate industry up until the “Wall of Capital” movie started showing at “A Theatre Near You.”

Private Equity International has just published a 300-page book called “Investing in Infrastructure, which offers detailed analyses from 55 industry professionals who are shaping the global infrastructure fund investment world. It also examines investment techniques & strategies, asset management, legal developments and timely financing know-how. Without wanting to insert a link here the url is (http://www.peimedia.com).

While I have some friends (and one brother) that are attorneys, I couldn’t pass this up. In New York Magazine’s Year-End Double Issue there’s a special section “The New York Area’s Best Lawyers.” It’s an advertising supplement and I want to share some of the lines that come directly from the ads (Note: These are trial, not real estate, lawyers):

1. “We are aggressive with our adversaries, but compassionate with our clients.”
2. “We never back up, we never back down.”
3. “It’s my obligation to do everything I can do get my client their piece of justice.”
4. “The firm’s calling card is its ability to handle high-stakes advocacy.”
5. “When we take clients on, it’s a life and death situation for them. What’s died is their hope for quality of life and we get that back.”
6. “The relief that you can give someone in the courtroom is more than satisfying.”
7. “You pay your fair share, or you go to trial.”
8. “The privilege of representing seriously injured claimants and helping them lead a life of dignity and financial independence is the highest reward a trial lawyer can receive.”
9. “Solving our clients’ legal problems efficiently and with our eye on their business needs is our number one priority.”
10. “I’m proud of the people I represent.”
11. “The best way we can act as truly effective advocates for our clients is to mix a mastery of the medical issues with a passion and empathy for the clients’ plight.”
12. “What we do is a constant reminder to ourselves and our staff of just how privileged we are to live in this society.”
13.
I’ll stop with that one and will not comment, or show you, any of the photos in the ads. They too are something to behold.

I wonder if law schools now teach a advertising/promotion and one-liner course? “Everything is marketing.”


Thanks to a good friend of mine for sharing this with me. I wanted to share it with you.

Violinist in the Metro
A man sat at a metro station in Washington DC and started to play the violin; it was a cold January morning. He played six Bach pieces for about 45 minutes. During that time, since it was rush hour, it was calculated that thousand of people went through the station, most of them on their way to work.
Three minutes went by and a middle-aged man noticed there was musician playing. He slowed his pace and stopped for a few seconds and then hurried up to meet his schedule. A minute later, the violinist received his first dollar tip: a woman threw the money in the till and without stopping continued to walk.
A few minutes later, someone leaned against the wall to listen to him, but the man looked at his watch and started to walk again. Clearly he was late for work. The one who paid the most attention was a 3-year old boy. His mother tagged him along, hurried but the kid stopped to look at the violinist. Finally the mother pushed hard and the child continued to walk turning his head all the time. This action was repeated by several other children. All the parents, without exception, forced them to move on. In the 45 minutes the musician played, only 6 people stopped and stayed for a while. About 20 gave him money but continued to walk their normal pace. He collected $32. When he finished playing and silence took over, no one noticed it. No one applauded, nor was there any recognition. No one knew this but the violinist was Joshua Bell, one of the best musicians in the world. He played one of the most intricate pieces ever written with a violin worth 3.5 million dollars. Two days before his playing in the subway, Joshua Bell sold out at a theater in Boston and the seats average $100. Joshua Bell playing incognito in the metro station was organized by the Washington Post as part of a social experiment about perception, taste and priorities of people. The outlines were: in a commonplace environment at an inappropriate hour: Do we perceive beauty? Do we stop to appreciate it? Do we recognize the talent in an unexpected context? One of the possible conclusions from this experience could be:
If we do not have a moment to stop and listen to one of the best musicians in the world playing the best music ever written, how many other things are we missing?


Steve


Where I'll be:

Jan. 16-18: Ormond Beach, FL for the first Felix Family Annual Birthday Celebration
Jan. 26: Chicago
Jan. 27: Madison, WI
Jan. 28: Washington, DC
Feb. 17: Atlanta, GA
Feb. 18: Raleigh, NC
Feb. 19: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kennan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Feb. 22-29: Vacation in Mexico….totally offline!
Mar. 10-13: Cannes to attend MIPIM, host the second annual MIPIM Summit TV show and attend INREV's Annual General Meeting.
Mar.24: New York to moderate a panel at the IGlobal Forum Real Estate Private Equity Summit
Mar. 25-26: Washington DC to attend PREA's Spring Conference
April 1: Champaign-Urbana, IL to attend my son’s DMA (Doctor of Musical Arts) recital.

The End of the Holidays

While I’d like to be known as a man of few words, I don’t think that’s me. But in the Dec/Jan issue of PERE magazine, Executive Editor David Snow’s succinct opening paragraph struck me: “The good news is that investors in private equity real estate are now better equipped than ever to benchmark the performance of their general partners. The bad news is that much of the capital put to work in recent years is going to perform relatively poorly.” From David’s non-practitioner perch he couldn’t be more right and we all know and are going to see more and more proof of this. And while performance and thus returns are and will be down, opportunity in certain sectors may abound. Witness the launch by some veteran real estate guys, Gallin Glick Sullivan O’Keefe, of a consultancy probably born out of opportunity but my guess is to some degree out of boredom. I know Henry Gallin and Mike Glick personally and am reaching out to them today for the first time since seeing the announcement this morning. But as I speak to more and more people, the word “Experience” (not to be confused with grey hair [although as we know while women have similar experience most choose to not let the grey hair show] is more and more important (Disclaimer: This is not a sexist comment; just reality!). I can related to this perfectly as I’ve also been through a number of real estate cycles and a several times in my life made my living on workouts, distressed situations and, to steal a line from my friend Bob Barclay’s firm, North American Realty Advisors, “turning a sow’s ear into a silk purse.” But even for those with experience, and while some issues and conditions resemble past downturns to some degree, this time it’s different. Very!

Working to work this morning I realized that the holiday season is truly over as I watched the now brittle Christmas trees being dragged out to the sidewalks of New York for pickup and, I assume, recycling. But that’s not the only sign. People have come back from their holidays with vengeance. I sense a more than normal energy in business; a feeling that if we work harder we will not only keep our jobs but somehow can make things happen where some say ‘we need to wait this thing out.’ Tim Scott, a good friend and active residential real estate broker in Manhattan was telling me recently of some startling deals that have fallen apart, with substantial ‘cash money’ (as my grandfather used to call it) left on the table. But, he also reports that there’s a lot of activity with people looking at apartments and buildings although there is a sense that there are ‘deals to be had.’ But whether it be an apartment, a working loft or a building to me it all boils down to how motivated either the seller or the buyer is. On March 24th (my mothers birthday) I’m going to be moderating a panel at the iGlobalForum 2nd annual real estate private equity summit in New York. My panel is titled: VALUATION AND PRICING STRATEGIES FOR DISTRESSED ASSETS: The RTC Redux? I’m now seeking out a representative from each of the buy/sell/hold contingents to join me in a dialogue (or debate) on this very subject, which I expect will be supported by someone from the valuation community as well. It should be a lively exchange of ideas. So now, to conclude with another quote from David Snow at PERE: “…as the years go by, expect to see the 2005, 2006 and 2007 vintage years put blemishes on the overall track record of private equity real estate. As is the case with most long-term asset classes, vintage years directly before recessions tend to perform poorly, while vintage years during and directly after recessions tend to be great. Given the depth of the current crisis, astute LPs are right to be eager about the 2009 and 2010 vintage years, even though the capital has yet to be deployed. (SF Note: Not only not yet deployed but in many cases not even raised yet…another challenge we are curious to see play out).

Have a good weekend!

Steve


Where I'll be:

Jan. 13-14: Cleveland, OH
Jan. 16-18: Ormond Beach, FL for the first 'annual' Felix Family Birthday Celebration
Jan. 28: Washington, DC
Feb. 17: Atlanta, GA
Feb. 18: Raleigh, NC
Feb. 19: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kennan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Mar. 10-13: Cannes to attend MIPIM, host the second annual MIPIM Summit TV show and attend INREV's Annual General Meeting.
Mar.24: New York to moderate a panel at the IGlobal Forum Real Estate Private Equity Summit
Mar. 25-26: Washington DC to attend PREA's Spring Conference
April 1: Champaign-Urbana, IL to attend a very special music recital
Apr. 24: New York, Madison Square Garden to watch Syracuse beat St. Johns (College Basketball).



These are my personal views and not that of my employer.

Staying Connected, Troubled Assets

Photo: Somewhere in Las Vegas recently. Thanks BF.

Last summer, I decided to experiment with Linkedin.com. Prior to that I had signed up and accepted invitations from people I knew but I never really spent the time figuring out how to use it or what good it really was. So I invited a number of people that I knew to sign up as well but still didn’t spend much time using the service, just watching it being used around my connections. Last week, after having to literally battle with Linkedin to cancel my account, I dropped out and disconnected. Something I read encouraged me to rethink whether I wanted to share my network with others and I decided that I had not needed before, nor do I need now, any third party social network to help me stay in touch with the people I know and that know me. (However, I am staying with Facebook as it's fun!).

The more things change….I was reading a NY Times article this past Monday on how those who were closely connected to the RTC (Resolution Trust Corporation) are now resurfacing to either take advantage of themselves or help their clients access opportunities today. I also was close to the RTC process and as things have deteriorated in the U.S. have thought about whether this is the time for me to leverage what and who I know. I’ve chosen not to and after reading this article I feel even better with my decision. Why? First of all, while things may look similar to 1990-1995, they aren’t. That time was unique, just like this time is and there’s no guarantee that past performance or actions are any indicator of future results. I believe that those who will be able to benefit from buying distressed assets today are those with very deep pockets and very patient money and those two characteristics are not always seen at the same movie. If we look at history as a model we have to be careful that we take all factors into consideration and not blindly dive into pools where the water is deeper than we first thought.

Having said that, I offer this excerpt from the premier issue of RCA’s Troubled Asset Radar:
“ The inventory already tops $106b and is growing rapidly. Truly distressed situations, where the mortgage is in default, the owner is bankrupt or the property has already been foreclosed, total approximately $25.7b, encompassing well over 1,000 significant assets. Of this total, approximately 200 properties valued at $4.5b have reverted back to the lender to become Real Estate Owned (REO). Thus, the majority of the distressed assets have only recently fallen into default and a foreclosure process commenced. The analysis also ignores approximately $11b of distressed situations that have emerged and already been resolved over the past year. The volume of properties that are potentially troubled is even more significant totaling $80.9b in volume and 3,736 individual properties. Potentially Troubled assets are largely those with an upcoming mortgage maturity in 2009 or those where the owner is in some financial duress, often caused by maturing loans. In these situations, the properties involved may be free of problems or issues. However, certain property issues, such as a major tenant bankruptcy or a development that has stalled or failed to live up to expectations, will qualify it to fall into the Potentially Troubled category. Distressed Assets.”

I clearly think they’re right (and the data is what supports any editorial commentary). And, there will be another generation of Barry Sternlichts, Russ Appels, Joe Roberts, Lou Ranieris and others who have made good money by buying troubled assets. But, we’re all in for some tough sledding and I wonder whether the marquee names that we already know or new ones will step up to the counter and place their orders. It's going to be an interesting year.

First time for everything: At Midway (Chicago) airport I experienced this (but took the description from a website): “New signs, color coded like those at ski resorts that warn of the difficulty level of slopes, will direct passengers to one of three lines – a green circle for beginners, a blue square for intermediate travelers and a black diamond for advanced passengers. Travelers will pick the line that fits their experience level, or security workers will direct them to the appropriate one. The goal is to reduce tension and frustration at security checkpoints and speed up the process for at least the experienced travelers who know to whip off their shoes and remove laptops from carrying cases without being told.” Recently, when I went through, the ‘experienced’ line was very light (I guess it was too intimidating for most holiday travelers ☺). But…..excuse me….what a great idea!

An article in the New York Times on Tony Bennett last week included this; “poise in the wind of uncertainty is a very old idea in American pop.” I liked the phrase and thought it had much broader relevance than just the world of American pop (that’s not ‘soda’ they’re referring to!). Poise is a characteristic I’ve always looked up to and with things being so uncertain it’s going to be an even more admirable quality to maintain.

Where I'll be:

Jan. 5-12: New York
Jan. 13-14: Cleveland, OH
Jan. 16-18: Ormond Beach, FL for the first 'annual' Felix Family Birthday Celebration
Jan. 28: Washington, DC
Feb. 17: Atlanta, GA
Feb. 18: Raleigh, NC
Feb. 19: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kennan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Mar. 10-13: Cannes to attend MIPIM, host the second annual MIPIM Summit TV show and attend INREV's Annual General Meeting.
Mar.24: New York to moderate a panel at the IGlobal Forum Real Estate Private Equity Summit
Mar. 25-26: Washington DC to attend PREA's Spring Conference
April 1: Champaign-Urbana, IL to attend a very special music recital
Apr. 24: New York, Madison Square Garden to watch Syracuse beat St. Johns (College Basketball).



These are my personal views and not that of my employer.

Year-End: 2008

Paul Summer of J.P. Morgan Asset Management Global Real Assets is one of the most creative guys I know. The holiday card, which Paul created for their group this season is something special. It’s digital, short and, well,let me share the text with you. Picture a leather-bound book……

Cover: 2008-2009: Turning the Page by Hedda Nuff and Gladys Over
Page One: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
Page Two: OK, so it wasn’t the best of times…But as we turn the page on a dickens of a year, let's get down on our knees and give thanks we're still on our feet.
Page Three: Every end brings forth a new beginning. Wishing you a healthy, happy
and prosperous new year. May your troubles only last as long as your resolutions

Well said Paul, well said.

I woke up this morning and felt the need to write to you as we start a new year. I thought about how my 2008 went and what is going on in our industry right now with people losing their jobs, whole business units being cut and more people fearful that they may be fired early in the new year. And I went to Wikipedia, a resource that I rarely rely on and found typed in the word ‘friend’ to their search engine.

“Friendship is a term used to denote co-operative and supportive behavior between two or more people. In this sense, the term connotes a relationship, which involves mutual knowledge, esteem, and affection and respect along with a degree of rendering service to friends in times of need or crisis. Friends will welcome each other's company and exhibit loyalty towards each other, often to the point of altruism. They will also engage in mutually helping behavior, such as exchange of advice and the sharing of hardship. A friend is someone who may often demonstrate reciprocating and reflective behaviors. Yet for many, friendship is nothing more than the trust that someone or something will not harm them.

Value that is found in friendships is often the result of a friend demonstrating the following on a consistent basis:

* the tendency to desire what is best for the other,
* sympathy and empathy,
* honesty, perhaps in situations where it may be difficult for others to speak the truth, especially in terms of pointing out the perceived faults of one's counterpart
* mutual understanding."

I’ve always been good at helping others and up until recent years it has been difficult for me to let others help me. But I’ve learned over the past few years in particular that it’s okay to accept help as the balance of giving and receiving is the healthiest approach to life. After all these years in the real estate industry I’ve developed a pretty good ‘sixth sense’ about people and my instinct is pretty darn good. I am grateful for having so many ‘friends’ but also ‘connected acquaintances’ in my life. In 2007-2008 I’ve learned who my true friends are and to them I am forever grateful. I’ve also learned that when you have an instinctive sense that you can’t trust someone, don’t ever doubt it because sooner or later they will prove to be who you think they are.

Anyway, what I’m trying to say is this: a lot of our industry friends and acquaintances are and will be going through difficult times. I would guess that all of us have gone through career challenges at one time or another in our own lives. And while we may not have an answer or be able to pick up a phone and find someone a suitable position, what we can do is spend some time talking with people, listening to what they’re thinking about and, well, being a friend. In 1995, as I was working my way out of a job doing workouts for a large commercial bank in New Jersey, someone in that bank, who I didn’t know very well, turned me on to the phrase ‘transferable skills.’ Given what is going on right now I think that we need to help coach our industry colleagues to think about how to transfer their skills and look in directions where there may be opportunities that they might not have thought of. We can all be coaches, nay, friends to each other and it pretty much starts with just being willing to take some time to meet with someone. It’s a small world and getting smaller. Not only will you feel good about trying to help someone, they will not forget you.

My band, “Everyone” used to have the song “Carry On” (Crosby, Stills & Nash, written by Stephen Stills) on our setlist every night we played. It was a song that was written about a broken relationship but I thought of it just his morning and while I recommend listening to the whole song (I’m going to do it as well) I offer this simple phrase:

Rejoice, rejoice, we have no choice but
To carry on

Let’s let 2008 be a reminder of what’s really important in life and as we ‘carry on’ never forget that we’re fortunate to have each other.

Happy New Year!

From The Great White North

Photo: The mostly frozen Rivière des Prairies, Quebec from my home office.

When I flew Southwest Airlines to Chicago last week and looked out the window in the gray of the early winter morning I could clearly see the snow grid of middle America frozen in place and all I could think of was how it reminded me of how our industry, nay, the worlds’ financial and business and consumer landscape is frozen, virtually shut down in a strange sort of hibernation. The big question: Will Spring bring a thaw? I hope so.

From a NYTimes editorial on 12/24:
“The world may never again be able to gaze at its photo with awestruck wonder. But two startlingly fresh images of our planet come to mind. The first is the virtual globe that appears when you open Google Earth. The planet as information tool, waiting to fly you anywhere you choose. The other is a haunting image from the movie "Wall-E" of a brown husk left lifeless by consumption. The real Earth seen from the Moon is surely as lovely as ever, even with thinner ice caps, smaller forests, fewer gorillas and tigers and a few billion more people. We are still brothers and sisters in the eternal cold, but increasingly connected by invisible threads, able to see — and hear and understand — one another as never before. That, at least, is reason for optimism.”

From Tom Asacker: Nine Predictions for 2009 (BTW, I learned some time ago that nine is the maximum number of things you should put on a list; seems like this fellow read the same thing! And, yes, I skipped some ☺):

#2: Many things will change, but many people will not.
Most of us will be doing, thinking and feeling more or less the same things this time next year as we are now. If you don’t want that sameness, grab yourself by the collar and yank yourself off that comfortable, well-worn path and onto the one less travelled by you. Let go of your past and grab on to your future. Because while you’re waiting for that grand insight to point you in the right direction, the beauty if life is flying right on by. (SF

#3: Most people will sit quietly in their seats and watch life unfold around them.
Grab the wheel and get moving. Let the pull of what excites you and what you care most deeply about be your guide.

#5: Many “friends” will be lost and many new ones made.
Many of the people who have “friended” you through social networking did so for a reason; their reason. And once that reason goes away, so will they. Don’t sweat it. Keep connecting. Keep reaching out and sharing with people with similar interests and beliefs. But also spend more slow and deep time with your family and your true friends; those who accept and care about the real you, not the social status you. “In prosperity, our friends know us; in adversity, we know our friends.” –John Churton Collins.

#6: The passionate will not only survive, they will thrive.
The future belongs to those unwilling to accept the stifling status quo; to those who stay puzzled, excited , frustrated and surprised.

#7: Success will go to those with the best questions, not those with the cleverest answers.
Successful people know that they’ll never know enough, especially about what really matters. So, they pay attention. They catch on and refocus rapidly. They never stop trying and learning. They’re driven by the questions, by their desire to understand and to change things. “All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and then success is sure.” –Mark Twain

#8: Execution is the new strategy.
E.L. Doctorow wrote, “Planning to write is not writing.” Sure, vision and planning are important. But with the accelerating pace of change in today’s world, the important insights are more likely to come through doing and editing, than through speculating and strategizing.

#9: Making a difference will trump making a buck.
Walt Disney’s mantra was, “I don’t make movies to make money. I make money to make movies. “ What about you? Why do you make money? Think really had and long about that simple question. If you’ve been putting off being passionate about your work in order to make a lot of money, now may be the time for you to make a change. Why? Because the business of making money simply to make more money is quickly coming to an end. The future is not in making a buck, it’s in making a difference. “We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give.” –Winston Churchill

And, please, as things get more and more hectic and frantic, don’t forget the famous Princess Louise Principal: When you’re off you’re off! If you work at it you can do it. You can turn your work phone and BlackBerry off when you’re off. Just give yourself and those around you a break!

I discovered an interesting blog last week.
http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com and will be meeting with the author next Tuesday in Montreal.

2008 has been a challenging year in one way shape or form for almost all of us. I’ve had my own personal adventure this year which has, as many things in life, resulted in me being in a better place (not just physical). I have met some terrific people for the first time and visited places I had never been before. I have also really learned who my true friends are and I cherish their friendship. For me, growing as a person, exploring new things, living with my eyes and heart open and being grateful for so many little things is the essence of my life. Having your support in the launch of this blog means a great deal to me. 2009 will bring us challenges, some leftover, others pushing us to be more creative, more enthusiastic and more disciplined. But throughout it all, I have learned that it is the small things that matter and that in this time of stress, reaching out to help someone makes a difference.

My best to you for a happy and healthy 2009!


Where I'll be:

Dec. 26-Jan. 2, 2009: Montreal.
Jan. 13-14: Cleveland, OH
Jan. 16-18: Ormond Beach, FL for the first 'annual' Felix Family Birthday Celebration
Feb. 17: Atlanta, GA
Feb. 18: Raleigh, NC
Feb. 19-, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kennan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Mar. 10-13: Cannes to attend MIPIM, host the second annual MIPIM Summit TV show and attend INREV's Annual General Meeting.
Mar.24: New York to moderate a panel at the IGlobal Forum Real Estate Private Equity Summit
Mar. 25-26: Washington DC to attend PREA's Spring Conference
April 1: Champaign-Urbana, IL to attend a very special music recital
Apr. 24: New York, Madison Square Garden to watch Syracuse beat St. Johns (College Basketball).



These are my personal views and not that of my employer.

"Made-Off", Frozen Chicago, Optimism

<<<<<Chicago-Frozen Lake Michigan from my hotel room.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Brian Felix/Joel Cummins Annual Holiday Keyboard Fundraiser for Keys 4 Kids in Chicago last night. Annual sing along song was The Beatles-A Day in the Life.

Well, what a week. So this dude ‘made-off’ with a lot of people’s money and here I thought Ponzi was just a sauce you dipped dumplings in! In this era of finger pointing rather than accepting responsibility for our own actions, investors with Mr. Maydoff were operating in the trance that was part of the euphoric period of the ‘wall of capital’ days. Well, the dyke in the wall of capital broke and no one’s finger is big enough to stop the rush of filthy water, carrying hopes and dreams down the sewer. And while “Caveat Emptor” is not intended to scold those who got caught in this scheme, it is and even better rule for us to remember going forward. No, we can’t change deeds that have been done or words that we’ve said but we can change the way we approach things, our attitude if you will and thus the future and boy, is there going to be change. What I don’t understand is how could someone knowingly screw foundations, many foundations, out of money that was donated to those organizations out of the goodness of the hearts of others to help people in need? And, the Cheney-like smirk that Madoff seemingly proudly wears in recent photos of make me feel like throwing much more than some shoes at him. What a scumbag! If this guy doesn't really pay for what he's done, we've got more of a problem here in the U.S. than I ever thought. But we also need to restrain from lynching or public flagellation and respect 'due process.' As a friend of mine in Chicago said to me yesterday, “All we can hope is that this is the end of things because the accumulation of all the ‘bad press’ about the financial world and the 'guilt by association' real estate is suffering can really damage the short term future of our industry.” I echo that hope but I’m just not sure that we’re finished as in I don’t think the bottom is yet in sight and as we know we'll only know when we hit the bottom after it's happened. This is like a bad movie but, it’s not, it’s real.

Desperate to read something at breakfast this morning I thumbed through USA Today and found a short Op-Ed piece by founder, Al Neuharth (age 84). Allow me to share some excerpts with you:

• In a recession you can not only survive but thrive by practicing these two things:
o Realism
o Optimism
• The reality today is to tighten you belt as much as necessary.
• Optimism means you must understand that if you handle this problem properly, you can ride high on the wave of recovery and prosperity that follows every recession….
o That means investing now in everything worthwhile you can afford.
o It means spending only what is necessary on necessities and funneling what you can into the future. The sooner the better.
• We launched USA TODAY during the 16-month recession of 1981-82. Because it was a popular new product, it rode the recovery.
• If you invest in the future in time of recession, the best of times are ahead of you.

Having been a real estate contrarian for much of my life, I tend to agree with Al in a number of ways. But I guess, the idea of ‘riding high on the wave of recovery and prosperity’ sounds a little too much like what we’re suffering now from over-doing it. Anyway, I leave it to you to chose your poison as we all attempt to navigate a wide and deep global unraveling. And, there are enough “What was he thinking?” type of news pieces to actually bring a smile (or a shaking of the head) to our day. I’ve always said, “Real life is much more entertaining than any TV show or movie.” Governor of Illinois. Auto execs private jet. Auto bailout…just announced by the U.S. President (where’s mine?) Wearing boots just in case you need something to throw ad someone.

There has been a lot of talk this week about the new Troubled Asset Radar report launched by RCA (Real Capital Analytics) this week and available to subscribers only. To my knowledge this is the only such aggregation of timely information on the state of and the potential opportunities in commercial real estate.

Restaurant of the week: Lazzaras Pizza, 221 W. 38th Street, New York (http://lazzaraspizza.com). I have eaten a lot of pizza and I have to say that this is one of the top three pizzas I have ever tasted. No slices, just pies. Go with someone who loves to eat!

Where I'll be:

Dec. 20-Jan. 2, 2009: Montreal working from home in between the holidays.
Jan. 13-14: Cleveland, OH
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Mar. 10-13: Cannes to attend MIPIM, host the second annual MIPIM Summit TV show and attend INREV's Annual General Meeting.
Mar.24: New York to moderate a panel at the IGlobal Forum Real Estate Private Equity Summit
Mar. 25-26: Washington DC to attend PREA's Spring Conference

These are my personal views and not that of my employer.