10 October 2008
“Show me the money” is Cuba Gooding’s mantra in the movie “Jerry McGuire.” But while big numbers are being thrown around by governments worldwide, trying to avoid a total meltdown (is las vegas taking odds on that?) there continues to be real losses accumulating in the real estate industry. So, it seems like now it the time to start pulling the trigger on distressed deals. But then again maybe not. If values continue to fall, then maybe waiting is smarter. That’s why the people making these investment decisions both get paid the big bucks and have sleepless nights. We are clearly in a meltdown and this one has nothing to do with global warming. Unlike the U.S. in the early 1990’s when we were watching to see what bank the RTC took over, today we’re waking up wondering what country is going to take things into their own hands, trying desperately to keep some semblance of confidence in their banking sector. These are and will continue to be trying times but for those who have only seen the real estate boom, it’s both sobering and instructional. For those of us that have been through at least one, and for me and some of my friends at least three real estate cycles, we know about uncertain times. But I don’t think that any of us really knows exactly what to expect today or next Monday. What is looking pretty certain is that cash will continue to be king and there will be buying opportunities where there is seller stress. I use the term stress rather than distress because many of the assets that will be bought (or refinanced privately) will be healthy assets caught in the wringer of the evaporation of the bountiful capital that existed. Maybe this year we in America will have a lot more to be thankful for at Thanksgiving than material things and hopefully one of them will be that America made the right choice to elect a president that can inspire us to a brighter future.
The fall season is beautiful in the northeast this year although a little warmer than ‘normal’ (whatever normal is anymore). my coordinates these days have me living part-time in an apartment in long beach, on the long island shore not far from JFK. Most mornings, I walk down the boardwalk, which even though is a couple of blocks out of the way, and can hear the sound of waves crashing on the shoreline. While sometimes I’m walking in the dark, the smell and sound are still fabulous. On the weekends, I take walks on the beach, looking for that one ultimate seashell to take back with me (haven’t found it yet) and watching the hundreds of surfers who are magnetically pulled to this beach. I’ve never surfed and am not sure I need to (haven’t skydived or downhilled skied either). But I’ve noticed the patience that is necessary in this part of the atlantic ocean as the one good wave may come only once in eight. One of the discoveries I’ve made in the few weeks I’ve been living there is that the beach club, silverpoint, where my family had a small cabana is still there. The gates have been closed but one day I’m going to drive in to see, if possibly, after all these year, anything recognizable remains. I have photos and movies that have been passed down to me showing the adults playing bridge and canasta; of the men playing softball in the sand; of birthday parties (mine is in july) and bbq’s and people looking very happy. My grandfather taught me how to swim there, in the ocean (as a young man he was a lifeguard who once saved someone from drowning) and I also learned to play baseball there from my father and my uncles, all who were fairly good athletes. Things were so much simpler then. My father use to let me and my brother sit on his lap and steer the car as we left the parking lot for home after a long weekend day at the beach. Where I grew up, in forest hills, ny, is also on my list to visit, probably next weekend. I was there about five years ago and the buildings are pretty much the same, I think just the makeup of the people has changed. We can never go back, except to visit, but, sometimes in a quiet time, I think of those days, reminded recently by a facebook website group of my former junior high school where people were testing each others’ memories of teachers. I think about how lucky I was to grow up until age 15 in new york and then move to the suburbs in new jersey which while only 22 miles west of midtown manhattan could have been somewhere in the heartland as it’s become to be referred to. And, as I write this, early on Friday morning, knowing that tonight I will be playing the piano at my former band mate tom davis’ memorial service, I stop, just for a moment, because that’s all it takes, and smile and know that even with what is going on in the global financial world, and no matter how much my investments have dropped in the past months (btw, more than 20%) I have my health; I have a loving wife and children who are happy and healthy and doing things that they love. When things get tough, sometimes we get more sentimental; I used to be that way too. But in the last few years, I have become more and more grateful, every day of the joy of life and my good fortune to have had a chance to do and see so many things and meet so many people and…..well, I could go on and on but one of my friends who reads this column has suggested that I try to keep it shorter (it’s a little shorter paul) and so i’ll end with this:
“Your best shot at happiness, self-worth and personal satisfaction-the things that constitute real success-is not in earning as much as you can but in performing as well as you can something that you consider worthwhile.”
William Raspberry
Where I’ll Be:
Week of October 13: New York
Week of October 20: New York
October 23: New York Athletic Club: The MacDella Cooper Foundation Gala to raise money to help needy children in Liberia
October 27-30: Miami Beach for the ULI Fall Meeting.
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel at the PERE Forum.
Dec. 8-12: London for meetings and especially to moderate a panel at the Reuters Real Estate Global Property Outlook 2009 on the 9th (Invitation only).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Saturday, October 4, 2008
PREA and Tom Davis
i attended the PREA annual plan sponsor conference in chicago this week. 850 attendees but the ratio of managers/others to pension funds was reported to be 10:1. an example of why this event has grown in size each year is evidenced in two people i met who are real estate operators from different parts of the U.S. who have either self-funded or have done small syndications over the years. in sarah palin speak, "how do i get some of that there pension fund money, katie?" is the reason. but it's not that easy. anyway, on a personal level, the timing couldn't have been better as i was able to hand out my new AVIVA Investors business cards and tell people about my new gig. also, as the press release about my new job hit the trade publications and websites as well, many people congratulated me on my 'next life.' it's great to see so many industry friends and acquaintances and it was a wonderful feeling to get so many people telling me how they felt that this was such a perfect use of who i know and what i know. i used up all my business cards!
here are some of the things i heard at the PREA conference:
1. liquidity is on the minds of almost all institutional investors.
2. funny how quickly open-end funds turned from having a queue to get in to a queue to get out.
3. some institutions are increasing their allocation to real estate to take advantage of dislocation or distress opportunities.
4. is there liquidity in other asset classes vs. real estate?
one keynote was delivered by frederic mishkin, an American economist and academic at the Columbia Business School. He was also a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 to 2008.
1. i'm as scared as i've ever been in my life about the economic situation.
2. sub-prime losses will be more than $1 trillion.
3. what caused this?
a. financial innovation
b. asset price bubble
c. deterioration of balance sheets of financial institutions
4. if you 'nail the S.O.B.'s on wall street you may do harm to the economy in general.
5. a "let's get those rich bastards" attitude will destroy the economy.
6. restoring confidence is everything in solving the financial crisis.
7. if we really screw this up, like the japanese did, it'll take 10 years to recover.
8. medicare needs trillions to fix it; $700BB? that's chump change.
some stuff from a one panel:
a. i don't see a commercial real estate depression like the early 1990's.
b. opportunistic investors will be compensated for separating the 'good' bonds and loans from the 'bad' ones.
c. the transfer of assets will be of biblical proportion.
d. going down to the lower levels of the capital structure you can buy at distressed prices where there is no distress.
e. it's likely that a whole number of hedge funds will close up by 12/31/08.
and another panel:
1. global recession is a reality.
2. the downturn will last 16 months.
3. we are going to see the opportunities of a generation.
4. i don't want to be the last man standing.
5. not only is the sky falling, it's gone lower than the earth's crust.
6. 16 of the 20 headlines in the wall street journal could have been the headline of your career.
7. panic is not necessarily wrong when it comes to making investing decisions.
8. we see great opportunity in distressed residential mortgages.
9. that we can talk about whether GE will survive is almost unfathomable.
10. this is a generational change in america.
while i was at the conference i got the news that tom davis had died. tom was the bass player in the most significant band i played in, called "everyone." tom was a professor of philosophy and religion at a college in new york state. he had fallen a few days earlier and cracked his head open. the doctors thought he would survive although never teach again. he died of a stroke without every regaining consciousness. the last time i saw tom was in the summer of 2001 when our band played a reunion gig to commemorate the most successful and crazy summer in our lives in 1971. tom was the gentlest soul i've ever known. he had a sweet voice but could also really rock, like when he sang steppenwolf's 'born to be wild.' we were all fairly innocent when we got together in 1968 but during those ensuing crazy days we all grew and experienced all the things that you would imagine a popular rock and roll band (albeit on a local level) might get the chance to see and do. i went on the website of tom's college, searching for something about him and found a place where students can rate and comment on their teachers. i offer a few of those comments about tom davis:
-Besides being helpful, kind, and understanding he MAKES you want to come to school.
-Tom Davis has inspired so many students to go deeper than they ever thought they would or could into philosophy and themselves; the comments he writes on your papers make it feel like a conversation he's having with you about your ideas; he's awesome, and for someone over 40, he's cute as ever! Ask to see the pics of him in his band when 20ish!
-He is the best professor you will ever encounter. He encouraged me to want to learn. He is dedicated to make sure that all of his students do well. He is an inspiration to me.
-An inspired and inspiring man. Zany, insightful, intelligent, interesting and benevolent. One of the best.
-he's just funny and smart and insane and entertaining and marvelous. he's somethin', that's for sure. :) he loves to jump down the rabbit holes. he doesn't ever make a student feel like their views are insignificant, he considers all points. at times i didn't know what he was talking about, but i never felt alienated.
-he seems like one of the few teachers that cares about teaching. Great guy.
-One of the most benign, charasmatic intellectuals I have ever met. He just happens to be the GREATEST professor I have ever had!!! I never learned so much as I did from him.
-he is great, very concerned with how every individual is doing within the class, he is also crazy and loved to dash around the room acting things out
-He is involved, unbiased, genuine-a phenomenal human being who should be providing seminars for teachers.
-Tom Davis is one of the greatest professors I have ever had and he's probably the nicest person you could possibly meet.
remember, these were written before tom died. i can only imagine what his current and former students are writing and saying about him now. what do people say about you? what will they say about you when you're in the next dimension? when you think about it, we all can be teachers. we can give something of ourselves to those starting out in the business and all along the way. you can 'teach your children' as graham nash of crosby, stills and nash sang. there is nothing more powerful than taking the time to help someone else be what they want to and can be. i never got the chance to take a class with tom and i never got to say goodbye to him but it's obvious that he was a very special teacher and a special person to those who came in contact with him in his 'life after everyone.' he's the first of our band to go and now we'll never play together again. it's like puggy, our lead guitarist wrote me, "it was good to just know tom was around." there'll be a memorial service for tom next saturday; i'll be there and have been asked to play a couple of songs that were close to tom's heart, "while my guitar gently weeps" and "imagine". but i'm also going to surprise his partner debbie with an old blues song which tom used to "knock out of the park" called 'sporting life blues' written by sonny terry:
I'm getting tired of runnin' around,
Think I will marry and settle down
This ole night life,
This ole Sportin' Life, it's killin' me
I got a letter from my home,
All of my friends, they're dead an'gone
It'll make you worry,
It'll make you wonder, 'bout days to come
My mother used to talk to me,
I was young and foolish, and could not see
Now, I have no mother,
My sisters and brothers, they don't care for me
Mama used to fall on her knees an' pray,
These are the words, mother, she used to say
She would say: "Wha-oh,
My son, please change your way"
Now, I'm goin' to change my way,
I'm growin' older each and every day
When I was young and foolish,
It was so easy, to go out and play
I was a gambler, and a cheater too,
Now, it's come my turn to lose
This ole Sportin' Life,
Got the best hand, what can I do?
There ain't but one thing that I done wrong,
I liv'd that ole Sportin' Life too long
Friends, it's no good, please believe me,
Please leave it alone
I'm getting tired of running round,
Think I will marry, and settle down
This ole night life,
This ole Sportin' Life, its killing me
here's a great version by j.j. cale and eric clapton [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iebv1LZOInc&feature=related].
we lived the sportin' life together in that band. tom sang about it almost every night. now he's gone and all we can do is think about how the sportin' life affected us all. sometimes it's just a spot you race by in a fast moving train. but other times it's something that becomes a monkey on your back. there was not anyone that met tom davis that did not love him. we loved him. he was our brother. we miss knowing he's around. don't wait too long to see someone in your life who you miss. make plans right now. to wait may be too long.
part of growing up is dealing with reality and dealing with problems and learning how to solve them or let them solve themselves. the lessons we're learning as a society today (especially in america) are painful but keeping them in perspective, still not nearly as painful as those in the world who are dying from hunger or disease that can be prevented or in wars and skirmishes the underlying theme of which sometimes escapes reason. i don't know if we'll ever go back to when things were simpler but i for one am going to try to go forward by going back a little and appreciating the simple things in life; appreciating what i have rather than being jealous or unhappy over what i don't have. things can change in the blink of an eye. we never lose sight of that and let's live our lives accordingly.
Where will I be?
Oct. 6-8: London
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel on "Asset Transformation Case Studies) at the fourth annual PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate). NOTE: PERE is offering a 15% discount for "Friends of Steve". If you want to take advantage of it just use this code (PERENY_Bridge) when you go to register on their site (http://www.peimedia.com/Product.aspx?cID=5496&pID=174808&contType=1).
December (date TBA): London to moderate a panel at a seminar hosted by Reuters Real Estate (http://www.reutersrealestate.com).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
here are some of the things i heard at the PREA conference:
1. liquidity is on the minds of almost all institutional investors.
2. funny how quickly open-end funds turned from having a queue to get in to a queue to get out.
3. some institutions are increasing their allocation to real estate to take advantage of dislocation or distress opportunities.
4. is there liquidity in other asset classes vs. real estate?
one keynote was delivered by frederic mishkin, an American economist and academic at the Columbia Business School. He was also a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 to 2008.
1. i'm as scared as i've ever been in my life about the economic situation.
2. sub-prime losses will be more than $1 trillion.
3. what caused this?
a. financial innovation
b. asset price bubble
c. deterioration of balance sheets of financial institutions
4. if you 'nail the S.O.B.'s on wall street you may do harm to the economy in general.
5. a "let's get those rich bastards" attitude will destroy the economy.
6. restoring confidence is everything in solving the financial crisis.
7. if we really screw this up, like the japanese did, it'll take 10 years to recover.
8. medicare needs trillions to fix it; $700BB? that's chump change.
some stuff from a one panel:
a. i don't see a commercial real estate depression like the early 1990's.
b. opportunistic investors will be compensated for separating the 'good' bonds and loans from the 'bad' ones.
c. the transfer of assets will be of biblical proportion.
d. going down to the lower levels of the capital structure you can buy at distressed prices where there is no distress.
e. it's likely that a whole number of hedge funds will close up by 12/31/08.
and another panel:
1. global recession is a reality.
2. the downturn will last 16 months.
3. we are going to see the opportunities of a generation.
4. i don't want to be the last man standing.
5. not only is the sky falling, it's gone lower than the earth's crust.
6. 16 of the 20 headlines in the wall street journal could have been the headline of your career.
7. panic is not necessarily wrong when it comes to making investing decisions.
8. we see great opportunity in distressed residential mortgages.
9. that we can talk about whether GE will survive is almost unfathomable.
10. this is a generational change in america.
-Besides being helpful, kind, and understanding he MAKES you want to come to school.
-Tom Davis has inspired so many students to go deeper than they ever thought they would or could into philosophy and themselves; the comments he writes on your papers make it feel like a conversation he's having with you about your ideas; he's awesome, and for someone over 40, he's cute as ever! Ask to see the pics of him in his band when 20ish!
-He is the best professor you will ever encounter. He encouraged me to want to learn. He is dedicated to make sure that all of his students do well. He is an inspiration to me.
-An inspired and inspiring man. Zany, insightful, intelligent, interesting and benevolent. One of the best.
-he's just funny and smart and insane and entertaining and marvelous. he's somethin', that's for sure. :) he loves to jump down the rabbit holes. he doesn't ever make a student feel like their views are insignificant, he considers all points. at times i didn't know what he was talking about, but i never felt alienated.
-he seems like one of the few teachers that cares about teaching. Great guy.
-One of the most benign, charasmatic intellectuals I have ever met. He just happens to be the GREATEST professor I have ever had!!! I never learned so much as I did from him.
-he is great, very concerned with how every individual is doing within the class, he is also crazy and loved to dash around the room acting things out
-He is involved, unbiased, genuine-a phenomenal human being who should be providing seminars for teachers.
-Tom Davis is one of the greatest professors I have ever had and he's probably the nicest person you could possibly meet.
remember, these were written before tom died. i can only imagine what his current and former students are writing and saying about him now. what do people say about you? what will they say about you when you're in the next dimension? when you think about it, we all can be teachers. we can give something of ourselves to those starting out in the business and all along the way. you can 'teach your children' as graham nash of crosby, stills and nash sang. there is nothing more powerful than taking the time to help someone else be what they want to and can be. i never got the chance to take a class with tom and i never got to say goodbye to him but it's obvious that he was a very special teacher and a special person to those who came in contact with him in his 'life after everyone.' he's the first of our band to go and now we'll never play together again. it's like puggy, our lead guitarist wrote me, "it was good to just know tom was around." there'll be a memorial service for tom next saturday; i'll be there and have been asked to play a couple of songs that were close to tom's heart, "while my guitar gently weeps" and "imagine". but i'm also going to surprise his partner debbie with an old blues song which tom used to "knock out of the park" called 'sporting life blues' written by sonny terry:
I'm getting tired of runnin' around,
Think I will marry and settle down
This ole night life,
This ole Sportin' Life, it's killin' me
I got a letter from my home,
All of my friends, they're dead an'gone
It'll make you worry,
It'll make you wonder, 'bout days to come
My mother used to talk to me,
I was young and foolish, and could not see
Now, I have no mother,
My sisters and brothers, they don't care for me
Mama used to fall on her knees an' pray,
These are the words, mother, she used to say
She would say: "Wha-oh,
My son, please change your way"
Now, I'm goin' to change my way,
I'm growin' older each and every day
When I was young and foolish,
It was so easy, to go out and play
I was a gambler, and a cheater too,
Now, it's come my turn to lose
This ole Sportin' Life,
Got the best hand, what can I do?
There ain't but one thing that I done wrong,
I liv'd that ole Sportin' Life too long
Friends, it's no good, please believe me,
Please leave it alone
I'm getting tired of running round,
Think I will marry, and settle down
This ole night life,
This ole Sportin' Life, its killing me
here's a great version by j.j. cale and eric clapton [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iebv1LZOInc&feature=related].
we lived the sportin' life together in that band. tom sang about it almost every night. now he's gone and all we can do is think about how the sportin' life affected us all. sometimes it's just a spot you race by in a fast moving train. but other times it's something that becomes a monkey on your back. there was not anyone that met tom davis that did not love him. we loved him. he was our brother. we miss knowing he's around. don't wait too long to see someone in your life who you miss. make plans right now. to wait may be too long.
part of growing up is dealing with reality and dealing with problems and learning how to solve them or let them solve themselves. the lessons we're learning as a society today (especially in america) are painful but keeping them in perspective, still not nearly as painful as those in the world who are dying from hunger or disease that can be prevented or in wars and skirmishes the underlying theme of which sometimes escapes reason. i don't know if we'll ever go back to when things were simpler but i for one am going to try to go forward by going back a little and appreciating the simple things in life; appreciating what i have rather than being jealous or unhappy over what i don't have. things can change in the blink of an eye. we never lose sight of that and let's live our lives accordingly.
Where will I be?
Oct. 6-8: London
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel on "Asset Transformation Case Studies) at the fourth annual PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate). NOTE: PERE is offering a 15% discount for "Friends of Steve". If you want to take advantage of it just use this code (PERENY_Bridge) when you go to register on their site (http://www.peimedia.com/Product.aspx?cID=5496&pID=174808&contType=1).
December (date TBA): London to moderate a panel at a seminar hosted by Reuters Real Estate (http://www.reutersrealestate.com).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Aviva Investors
i'm excited to tell you that i've joined Aviva Investors Multi-Manager Real Estate team as Head of Marketing for North America. yes, it's a long title but it helps me to remember what i was hired to do. actually, my responsibilities will probably include being an ambassador for all real estate products offered by AVIVA Investors. today is the official day of my announcement. and it's also the official day of the announcement of the launch of the AVIVA Investors brand which is the only sub-business of AVIVA plc, the worlds fifth largest insurance company. AVIVA Investors has been formed by combining AVIVA Capital Management and Morley Fund Management. we have offices in London, New York and Singapore. Aviva Investors is one of the world’s largest real estate managers with $50 billion in assets under management, and is one of the largest real estate multi-managers with more than $10 billion under management, invested into indirect real estate strategies. i’m very excited to have this opportunity.
i really don't know what i can add to everything being written and talked about regarding the state of financial affairs in the u.s. today. suffice it to say that others much smarter and closer to the situation than i have said that unless the government steps in further our entire economy could crumble. hopefully, the final solution will be one that takes everyone into consideration. but, once things do settle down, and i have a feeling that it will be sooner rather than later, we can move forward, albeit at a slower and more careful pace but perhaps 'the bottom' will have arrived and things can only go up from there. we all need to keep our fingers crossed because as a friend of mine used to say, “we’re in deep doo-doo” right now.
Pete Seger, the legendary folk singer who turned 89 this year has released a new album. I read this today in the paper and it resonated with me so I wanted to pass it along to you:
"I hope the next revolution (after the current information-based one) will take the form of a 'willingness to communicate revolution.' It will involve becoming more generous, having a better sense of humor and talking to people we disagree with. And that must happen if there is going to be a human race here in the next century,'
from time to time i have thought about 'where time goes?' i guess that while i keep a very positive attitude on life and am convinced that i am going to live well past 100, there are moments when i wonder how it is that time can be passing so fast. perhaps it happens when i think about 'what have i contributed to the world?' and whether i'm just going through life, working to make a living, from time to time taking holidays and experiencing different people, cultures and geographies and that is something that is very important to me; i also know that there are more people, places and things in the world than i will have time or means to visit. but that won't stop me from trying but not trying in the sense of putting pressure on myself but rather just continue to stretch myself when i have the opportunity to expand my horizons. but that again is something that i do for myself but i don know that the experience of meeting people on their own turf and communicating with them also means something to them as well; i know it because i have talked about it with them. and, i've always believed, that the key to bringing our world closer together, while cross border investment and business deals are one component, and cultural exchanges are another, in my humble opinion, there is no substitute for people meeting people, one on one and talking. in this way we learn that we are all human beings and that the differences represented by our language or our habits, holidays or traditions are not the true essence of who we are as human beings. maybe i'm just a wishful thinker but i continue to believe that we can bring more peace and understanding to the world by taking advantage of any opportunity we have to contribute to our world's future.
but at times like these, when it seems like in so many ways and places, the stress, strain, pain, hatred and confrontation serve to separate us as people, both within and outside our respective countries it makes it more and more difficult to think of anything or anyone other than ourselves, our families and our and their own well-being. i too am feeling some strain of what is going on in the economy and financial world in the U.S. and perhaps some of what i'm going through is due to my believing that things would always continue to get better and for many years, for me, they did. i do feel that things will continue to get better for me and that the lessons learned are not the kind that are as damaging as they are with other U.S. citizens and others around the world who have made investment decisions which have caused them to lose some of their net worth. but i guess what i'm coming around to is that i've been thinking lately of what does someones' real 'net worth' consist of. it is only measured in terms of dollars and assets owned? i'd like to believe not. there's a phrase i read many years ago in a book whose name i cannot remember: "things worth being vs. things worth having." there is a big difference.
sunday’s new york times magazine section had a special advertising section dedicated to new york lawyers. but it wasn't just any lawyers (at least i don't think it was) it was 'superlawyers.' now, i may be wrong, but i thought all lawyers were superlawyers or at least they see themselves as superlawyers. and, as having good self-esteem is important in any profession, why shouldn't they? but what was interesting to me was the way those firms that decided to spend what may be a considerable portion of their annual marketing budget designed their ads. they run the gamut from anyone wear anything to all seven partners wearing the identical suit with only minor color changes in the tie. and everything in between. i don't know which of the firms i would choose from their photo or whether i'd just dismiss them one by one based on fashion statements and facial expressions. however, in addition to the 'ads' there was a directory which was listed by discipline. real estate, as you might imagine, has a lot of lawyers in new york. included in the listings (but not in the ads) were two friends, carl schwartz of herrick, feinstein and david rabinowitz of sutherland. these guys are big-time real estate attorneys and while you may see an ad of theirs from time to time in a real estate publication you won't see them in this superlawyer supplement, new york magazine or entertainment weekly (although, while i've never held one in my hand might be a place where entertainment or libel lawyers do advertise). "perception is reality" is a saying that i believe has a lot of truth to it and when someone runs an ad or a tv commercial where ones visage (the face of several colleagues) are out in the open i think you're taking a chance. is having photos in an ad any different than having photos of people on your website? not really but sort of. while websites should be both information and somewhat promotional they do have certain components of advertising. but ads are "in your face, buddy." whether they're in print, on tv or as a warm up to a movie played in your local theatre (which i think is an infringement of one of my constitutional rights, i just don't know which one). my suggestion: always put yourself in the others persons shoes; bounce ad ideas off people you know and trust (even if you've engaged an ad firm to create your ad). you know your industry better than anyone and they way you are perceived in your ad becomes the reality.
Where will I be?
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference
Oct. 6-8: London
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel on "Asset Transformation Case Studies) at the fourth annual PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
i really don't know what i can add to everything being written and talked about regarding the state of financial affairs in the u.s. today. suffice it to say that others much smarter and closer to the situation than i have said that unless the government steps in further our entire economy could crumble. hopefully, the final solution will be one that takes everyone into consideration. but, once things do settle down, and i have a feeling that it will be sooner rather than later, we can move forward, albeit at a slower and more careful pace but perhaps 'the bottom' will have arrived and things can only go up from there. we all need to keep our fingers crossed because as a friend of mine used to say, “we’re in deep doo-doo” right now.
Pete Seger, the legendary folk singer who turned 89 this year has released a new album. I read this today in the paper and it resonated with me so I wanted to pass it along to you:
"I hope the next revolution (after the current information-based one) will take the form of a 'willingness to communicate revolution.' It will involve becoming more generous, having a better sense of humor and talking to people we disagree with. And that must happen if there is going to be a human race here in the next century,'
from time to time i have thought about 'where time goes?' i guess that while i keep a very positive attitude on life and am convinced that i am going to live well past 100, there are moments when i wonder how it is that time can be passing so fast. perhaps it happens when i think about 'what have i contributed to the world?' and whether i'm just going through life, working to make a living, from time to time taking holidays and experiencing different people, cultures and geographies and that is something that is very important to me; i also know that there are more people, places and things in the world than i will have time or means to visit. but that won't stop me from trying but not trying in the sense of putting pressure on myself but rather just continue to stretch myself when i have the opportunity to expand my horizons. but that again is something that i do for myself but i don know that the experience of meeting people on their own turf and communicating with them also means something to them as well; i know it because i have talked about it with them. and, i've always believed, that the key to bringing our world closer together, while cross border investment and business deals are one component, and cultural exchanges are another, in my humble opinion, there is no substitute for people meeting people, one on one and talking. in this way we learn that we are all human beings and that the differences represented by our language or our habits, holidays or traditions are not the true essence of who we are as human beings. maybe i'm just a wishful thinker but i continue to believe that we can bring more peace and understanding to the world by taking advantage of any opportunity we have to contribute to our world's future.
but at times like these, when it seems like in so many ways and places, the stress, strain, pain, hatred and confrontation serve to separate us as people, both within and outside our respective countries it makes it more and more difficult to think of anything or anyone other than ourselves, our families and our and their own well-being. i too am feeling some strain of what is going on in the economy and financial world in the U.S. and perhaps some of what i'm going through is due to my believing that things would always continue to get better and for many years, for me, they did. i do feel that things will continue to get better for me and that the lessons learned are not the kind that are as damaging as they are with other U.S. citizens and others around the world who have made investment decisions which have caused them to lose some of their net worth. but i guess what i'm coming around to is that i've been thinking lately of what does someones' real 'net worth' consist of. it is only measured in terms of dollars and assets owned? i'd like to believe not. there's a phrase i read many years ago in a book whose name i cannot remember: "things worth being vs. things worth having." there is a big difference.
sunday’s new york times magazine section had a special advertising section dedicated to new york lawyers. but it wasn't just any lawyers (at least i don't think it was) it was 'superlawyers.' now, i may be wrong, but i thought all lawyers were superlawyers or at least they see themselves as superlawyers. and, as having good self-esteem is important in any profession, why shouldn't they? but what was interesting to me was the way those firms that decided to spend what may be a considerable portion of their annual marketing budget designed their ads. they run the gamut from anyone wear anything to all seven partners wearing the identical suit with only minor color changes in the tie. and everything in between. i don't know which of the firms i would choose from their photo or whether i'd just dismiss them one by one based on fashion statements and facial expressions. however, in addition to the 'ads' there was a directory which was listed by discipline. real estate, as you might imagine, has a lot of lawyers in new york. included in the listings (but not in the ads) were two friends, carl schwartz of herrick, feinstein and david rabinowitz of sutherland. these guys are big-time real estate attorneys and while you may see an ad of theirs from time to time in a real estate publication you won't see them in this superlawyer supplement, new york magazine or entertainment weekly (although, while i've never held one in my hand might be a place where entertainment or libel lawyers do advertise). "perception is reality" is a saying that i believe has a lot of truth to it and when someone runs an ad or a tv commercial where ones visage (the face of several colleagues) are out in the open i think you're taking a chance. is having photos in an ad any different than having photos of people on your website? not really but sort of. while websites should be both information and somewhat promotional they do have certain components of advertising. but ads are "in your face, buddy." whether they're in print, on tv or as a warm up to a movie played in your local theatre (which i think is an infringement of one of my constitutional rights, i just don't know which one). my suggestion: always put yourself in the others persons shoes; bounce ad ideas off people you know and trust (even if you've engaged an ad firm to create your ad). you know your industry better than anyone and they way you are perceived in your ad becomes the reality.
Where will I be?
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference
Oct. 6-8: London
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel on "Asset Transformation Case Studies) at the fourth annual PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Friday, September 19, 2008
terms & conditions
i read this afternoon that henry paulson is talking about creating another RTC (Resolution Trust Corporation) type entity. I was a consultant to the RTC and started and ran what was called a SAMDA (Standard Asset Management & Disposition) office. while i was happy to be involved, as a taxpayer, it was an insult. that agency made things up as they went along and the absolute waste of money was incredible; that coupled with the fire sale mentality of trying to solve the problems quickly...well, i know that there were some who benefited but again the U.S. taxpayer footed the bill for the problems created by, at that time, poor underwriting and too aggressive lending. i for one am getting tired of the government bailing out business failures in the name of the 'greater good.' if you and i owned a business and we lost money, well, we'd just have to go out of business, it seems pretty simple to me. and maybe, that is what is going on. but there must be a better way.
i don't know about you but i feel that the U.S. government is using my tax dollars in ways that i don't approve of. they're desperate actions designed to 'save the U.S. economy from complete disaster." but the U.S. economy is a free market system where anyone can 'make it' (especially in NY) and it think that too much interference is not a good thing. from those people that i've talked with, it's likely that this week, while a triple play is not the end of the 'marquee' news in the financial community because we still don't know all the bad things that are behind closed doors and secret balance sheets. to have your job pulled out from under you without any real warning is not a pleasant experience, especially if you've been doing a good job over as much as 10 years or more. seeing people stream out of their offices carrying no more than a single box or a backpack which represents their personal effects was a sad but vivid reminder that nothing really is as it seems and that we need to always prepare ourselves for the unexpected. it's why building your own network, your own community is just as important (maybe more so) during 'normal' times so that if something should happen you're not starting from scratch. that, plus the good feeling one gets from helping others. that is what linkedin and other communities are all about to me, helping each other, but maybe i'm naive. anyway, sometimes being naive is a blessing.
Henry Z. Steinway, the last Steinway to run the piano-making company his family started in 1853, died Thursday at his home in Manhattan. he was 93. i've never owned a Steinway (the baby grand that I bought in 1987 and is now living with my son in Chicago is a Tokai). i always wanted to have a Steinway. i remember first playing one and feeling the heavy action. but the one Steinway experience I'll never forget was walking into Steinway Hall on 57th Street in New York and a very kind salesperson took me downstairs to the place where they keep the big boys, the pianos that visiting concert players can choose from for their gig. there they were, just all together in one big room, some with covers on them and some just naked. the salesperson directed me to a few, saying "Try this one, so and so uses this whenever he performs in New York." but the one that really shook me up was the piano that Arthur Rubenstein used. it was a Hamburg Model D. i asked, "Are your sure it's okay?" and he just smiled. I opened up the cover, sat down and hit a full C chord with octave bass. i almost jumped off the bench. it was such a powerful sound and feel. I played just that one chord and close the cover and got up and just walked away feeling that this was a spiritual moment. Steinway is one of those 'category killer' brand names that have lasted over time. it was a family business, run with quality control and integrity: Henry started in the factory, building pianos, just like the other members of the Steinway family. on our industry, starting in the 'factory', on a building site and learning the real estate business, brick or beam by beam is the old-fashioned way. but there's no substitute for knowing the essence of what makes the 'real' real estate business tick. i think it must hold true for almost any industry.
the news that the engineer of the train involved in the Los Angeles area train wreck that killed at least 25 people was texting and missed signals is horrible. it's unconscionable and it's unacceptable (and very sad). of course, now the authorities have enacted immediate rules prohibiting such things. but the damage, oh such waste of lives, is done. but several years ago, a good industry friend of mine, died in a car accident when it's reported that he was using his blackberry while driving. please, people: there is nothing that important that cannot wait until you're in a safe place and just like the advice I gave to my sons about not riding with someone who has been drinking, I'd make the same recommendation about someone who sends or checks emails while they're driving. more and more places seem to be enacting legislation forbidding use of mobile phones while driving unless they're 'hands-free' but, as we all know (and can see) there are a lot of people who don't believe rules are made for them. it's one thing that they are willing to put their own life at risk (and those of their passengers) but they're also putting our lives at risk. defensive driving has never been more important.
Private Equity International is hosting is annual Emerging Managers Forum in London
on November 4-5. Feedback from their events has always been very positive
i must admit that i have never read the 'terms and conditions' that i agree to when i'm doing certain things on the web. do you know anyone who has? i'm sure they contain language that you agree to have them or others that they sell or trade their lists with barrage you with stuff, solicitations or whatnot. i had somewhat of a similar experience this past summer. after many years of happy motoring with T-Mobile i got a new phone/blackberry with AT&T. i started getting unsolicited phone calls soliciting me for something; i started getting phone calls from Aunt Minerva trying to find someone (i could never understand what she said in her messages) who evidently recently had had the same mobile phone number as me. i called AT&T and complained. they said they were sorry (why can't people just do the right thing instead of falling back on apologizing) and click some button so people who were calling Minerva (including some lawyers) would not bother me anymore. as far as the solicitation calls: they said i had not asked to have the "No Call" capability turned on. btw, when i bought the phone, no one even mentioned this. so after asking them how could they operate like this i just said, 'turn it on." so that didn't work and i had to call them back again and the next person i spoke with said that it had not been turned on. so much for customer service. but what i'm really talking about here is disclosure and transparency in marketing. there are firms that operate in a sneaky type way. let's say you buy something from them or sign up for an online publication. they add you to their solicitation lists and you start getting regular emails, sometimes as many as two per week offering you another one of their products or services. clearly lists are big business as they always have been and junk mail, whether it's paper in your mailbox or what amounts to spam in your inbox are just, to me, unacceptable ways of doing business. do companies that barrage you with emails think that you'll hold them in higher esteem? i just don't get it.
I was cleaning out some old business card binders this week, from 2000 and saw a number of them were commercial real estate and other tangentially related technology companies. i know some are still operating but haven't taken the time to check them out. thought those of you who were in the business then would enjoy a little stroll down tech-boom lane:
1. propidex.com
2. jobsite.com
3. darwin.net
4. teligent.com
5. workspeed.com
6. avidexchange.com
7. managestar.com
8. electricstreets.com
9. enn.net (elevator news network)
10. virtualpremise.com
11. ebuyxpress.com
12. realwired.com
13. captiger.com
14. zethus.com
15. netfish.com
16. offices2share.com
17. capitalengine.com
18. rescapgroup.com
19. monsterdaata.com
20. servicechannel.com
21. workspeed.com
22. dreamlogik.com
23. corrigo.com
24. auctionwatch.com
25. ibuilding.com
26. therealm.com
27. cypresscommunications.com
28. nextlink.com
i remember in those days i heard a friend, chris hartung, say at a conference, "there goes another company that claims they can boil the ocean." i don't know if chris originated that saying but i've always attributed it to him. chris and others, as well as myself with creol.com were passionate about how technology could and would make us more efficient and change the CRE landscape. clearly, most of us were ahead of the curve or as they say, on the bleeding edge. but as i run into those who experienced that period of time, trying to gain traction, users and subscribers if believe we all feel better for having tried it. now, both those survivors and those new companies who are taking advantage of both the adoption of applications and the younger generations in our industry, are contributing greatly to more transparency, more efficiency, more connectivity and more news, just the way it was supposed to be.
some notes forwarded to me by Norm Kranzdorf from the ICSC Capital Markets Seminar in New York last week that was attended by 400 people:
-MetLife is still doing whole loans in the 50-60% LTC – Loan To Actual Cost – not to value.
-Most speakers did not see a turn around until the 2nd or 3dr Quarter of 2009 and into the 4th.
-Bank of Ireland was the only one admitting to making large construction loans with lots of conditions such as to a well-know developer with a substantial balance sheet.
-Mezz loans are being priced as if they were equity with a due date. Pro-formas are being used with a very conservative exit cap rate.
-Most participants are focused on primary markets only and many are sticking to the northeast from Boston to DC and Texas and the northwest.
-All pro-formas are using lower rents than todays and lowering renewal rates under the option rents.
-Many buyers are concentrating on buying B notes as they can get a higher return than on a new hard asset deal. It is paper vs. hard assets. Returns range from 285 bps above treasuries to 1200 above depending on risk tolerance. Sellers are allowing long due diligence when you look at these.
-Many people are talking to the “special servicers” for deals.
-There are some bargains if you can get to the “kick out bucket” of the issuers that had to hold them when they did a CMBS.
-One JV participant said that his latest apartment JV was for $36.5 MM which required him to invest 30% of the equity using 70% debt. Pari-passu on the 30% on the pref but profits over that started at 90/10.
-Ground up deals are the hardest to get done because the construction loans are hard to find and all have very difficult terms and guarantees. Permanent loans now have more carve outs with some personal guarantees required depending on the developer. Potential construction lenders should be consulted before getting involved in to-be-built projects.
Where will I be?
Sept. 22-30: New York
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference
(t) Oct. 6-8: Munich for Expo Real
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel on "Asset Transformation Case Studies) at the fourth annual PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
i don't know about you but i feel that the U.S. government is using my tax dollars in ways that i don't approve of. they're desperate actions designed to 'save the U.S. economy from complete disaster." but the U.S. economy is a free market system where anyone can 'make it' (especially in NY) and it think that too much interference is not a good thing. from those people that i've talked with, it's likely that this week, while a triple play is not the end of the 'marquee' news in the financial community because we still don't know all the bad things that are behind closed doors and secret balance sheets. to have your job pulled out from under you without any real warning is not a pleasant experience, especially if you've been doing a good job over as much as 10 years or more. seeing people stream out of their offices carrying no more than a single box or a backpack which represents their personal effects was a sad but vivid reminder that nothing really is as it seems and that we need to always prepare ourselves for the unexpected. it's why building your own network, your own community is just as important (maybe more so) during 'normal' times so that if something should happen you're not starting from scratch. that, plus the good feeling one gets from helping others. that is what linkedin and other communities are all about to me, helping each other, but maybe i'm naive. anyway, sometimes being naive is a blessing.
Henry Z. Steinway, the last Steinway to run the piano-making company his family started in 1853, died Thursday at his home in Manhattan. he was 93. i've never owned a Steinway (the baby grand that I bought in 1987 and is now living with my son in Chicago is a Tokai). i always wanted to have a Steinway. i remember first playing one and feeling the heavy action. but the one Steinway experience I'll never forget was walking into Steinway Hall on 57th Street in New York and a very kind salesperson took me downstairs to the place where they keep the big boys, the pianos that visiting concert players can choose from for their gig. there they were, just all together in one big room, some with covers on them and some just naked. the salesperson directed me to a few, saying "Try this one, so and so uses this whenever he performs in New York." but the one that really shook me up was the piano that Arthur Rubenstein used. it was a Hamburg Model D. i asked, "Are your sure it's okay?" and he just smiled. I opened up the cover, sat down and hit a full C chord with octave bass. i almost jumped off the bench. it was such a powerful sound and feel. I played just that one chord and close the cover and got up and just walked away feeling that this was a spiritual moment. Steinway is one of those 'category killer' brand names that have lasted over time. it was a family business, run with quality control and integrity: Henry started in the factory, building pianos, just like the other members of the Steinway family. on our industry, starting in the 'factory', on a building site and learning the real estate business, brick or beam by beam is the old-fashioned way. but there's no substitute for knowing the essence of what makes the 'real' real estate business tick. i think it must hold true for almost any industry.
the news that the engineer of the train involved in the Los Angeles area train wreck that killed at least 25 people was texting and missed signals is horrible. it's unconscionable and it's unacceptable (and very sad). of course, now the authorities have enacted immediate rules prohibiting such things. but the damage, oh such waste of lives, is done. but several years ago, a good industry friend of mine, died in a car accident when it's reported that he was using his blackberry while driving. please, people: there is nothing that important that cannot wait until you're in a safe place and just like the advice I gave to my sons about not riding with someone who has been drinking, I'd make the same recommendation about someone who sends or checks emails while they're driving. more and more places seem to be enacting legislation forbidding use of mobile phones while driving unless they're 'hands-free' but, as we all know (and can see) there are a lot of people who don't believe rules are made for them. it's one thing that they are willing to put their own life at risk (and those of their passengers) but they're also putting our lives at risk. defensive driving has never been more important.
Private Equity International is hosting is annual Emerging Managers Forum in London
on November 4-5. Feedback from their events has always been very positive
i must admit that i have never read the 'terms and conditions' that i agree to when i'm doing certain things on the web. do you know anyone who has? i'm sure they contain language that you agree to have them or others that they sell or trade their lists with barrage you with stuff, solicitations or whatnot. i had somewhat of a similar experience this past summer. after many years of happy motoring with T-Mobile i got a new phone/blackberry with AT&T. i started getting unsolicited phone calls soliciting me for something; i started getting phone calls from Aunt Minerva trying to find someone (i could never understand what she said in her messages) who evidently recently had had the same mobile phone number as me. i called AT&T and complained. they said they were sorry (why can't people just do the right thing instead of falling back on apologizing) and click some button so people who were calling Minerva (including some lawyers) would not bother me anymore. as far as the solicitation calls: they said i had not asked to have the "No Call" capability turned on. btw, when i bought the phone, no one even mentioned this. so after asking them how could they operate like this i just said, 'turn it on." so that didn't work and i had to call them back again and the next person i spoke with said that it had not been turned on. so much for customer service. but what i'm really talking about here is disclosure and transparency in marketing. there are firms that operate in a sneaky type way. let's say you buy something from them or sign up for an online publication. they add you to their solicitation lists and you start getting regular emails, sometimes as many as two per week offering you another one of their products or services. clearly lists are big business as they always have been and junk mail, whether it's paper in your mailbox or what amounts to spam in your inbox are just, to me, unacceptable ways of doing business. do companies that barrage you with emails think that you'll hold them in higher esteem? i just don't get it.
I was cleaning out some old business card binders this week, from 2000 and saw a number of them were commercial real estate and other tangentially related technology companies. i know some are still operating but haven't taken the time to check them out. thought those of you who were in the business then would enjoy a little stroll down tech-boom lane:
1. propidex.com
2. jobsite.com
3. darwin.net
4. teligent.com
5. workspeed.com
6. avidexchange.com
7. managestar.com
8. electricstreets.com
9. enn.net (elevator news network)
10. virtualpremise.com
11. ebuyxpress.com
12. realwired.com
13. captiger.com
14. zethus.com
15. netfish.com
16. offices2share.com
17. capitalengine.com
18. rescapgroup.com
19. monsterdaata.com
20. servicechannel.com
21. workspeed.com
22. dreamlogik.com
23. corrigo.com
24. auctionwatch.com
25. ibuilding.com
26. therealm.com
27. cypresscommunications.com
28. nextlink.com
i remember in those days i heard a friend, chris hartung, say at a conference, "there goes another company that claims they can boil the ocean." i don't know if chris originated that saying but i've always attributed it to him. chris and others, as well as myself with creol.com were passionate about how technology could and would make us more efficient and change the CRE landscape. clearly, most of us were ahead of the curve or as they say, on the bleeding edge. but as i run into those who experienced that period of time, trying to gain traction, users and subscribers if believe we all feel better for having tried it. now, both those survivors and those new companies who are taking advantage of both the adoption of applications and the younger generations in our industry, are contributing greatly to more transparency, more efficiency, more connectivity and more news, just the way it was supposed to be.
some notes forwarded to me by Norm Kranzdorf from the ICSC Capital Markets Seminar in New York last week that was attended by 400 people:
-MetLife is still doing whole loans in the 50-60% LTC – Loan To Actual Cost – not to value.
-Most speakers did not see a turn around until the 2nd or 3dr Quarter of 2009 and into the 4th.
-Bank of Ireland was the only one admitting to making large construction loans with lots of conditions such as to a well-know developer with a substantial balance sheet.
-Mezz loans are being priced as if they were equity with a due date. Pro-formas are being used with a very conservative exit cap rate.
-Most participants are focused on primary markets only and many are sticking to the northeast from Boston to DC and Texas and the northwest.
-All pro-formas are using lower rents than todays and lowering renewal rates under the option rents.
-Many buyers are concentrating on buying B notes as they can get a higher return than on a new hard asset deal. It is paper vs. hard assets. Returns range from 285 bps above treasuries to 1200 above depending on risk tolerance. Sellers are allowing long due diligence when you look at these.
-Many people are talking to the “special servicers” for deals.
-There are some bargains if you can get to the “kick out bucket” of the issuers that had to hold them when they did a CMBS.
-One JV participant said that his latest apartment JV was for $36.5 MM which required him to invest 30% of the equity using 70% debt. Pari-passu on the 30% on the pref but profits over that started at 90/10.
-Ground up deals are the hardest to get done because the construction loans are hard to find and all have very difficult terms and guarantees. Permanent loans now have more carve outs with some personal guarantees required depending on the developer. Potential construction lenders should be consulted before getting involved in to-be-built projects.
Where will I be?
Sept. 22-30: New York
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference
(t) Oct. 6-8: Munich for Expo Real
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel on "Asset Transformation Case Studies) at the fourth annual PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Sunday Update
Hi. Sorry for sending this out again. I got some feedback that the font was too big and the CREOPoint link didn't work. I've tried to fix both. Thanks for bearing with me as I learn how to use this service.
Steve
There were no less than six commercial real estate events going on in New York this past week. I guess organizers saw it as a window of sorts or tried to create a window. Other than the proven or niche events, from reports I received, the others struggled to attract numbers and calibre of people they promoted being able to do. But, notwithstanding, I had a great week. The Investment and Finance seminar that RealShares ran was well attended. When I took the 'attendance' of the audience prior to starting the session I was moderating it indicated about 45% to be owner/operator/developers, another good chunk were brokers and finance types and then there were a few 'others' (which I didn't have time to inquire about). We got good feedback on our panel and it was due to preparing for it and having knowledgeable panelists who answered questions directly. I have to blow my own horn here just a little as the success of any panel also has to do with the moderator and if there's one thing I know how to do it's moderate a panel. I ran into a lot of people I knew and hadn't seen in a while both at this event and at Real Capital Analytics rooftop reception at their building at 139 Fifth Avenue. So it's clear that everyone is 'back to school'.
Here are some of the things that I heard this week:
1. "We're sitting on a lot of cash right now. Our biggest challenge is deciding when we should start deploying in scale. We just don't know." Mike Fascitelli, Vornado Realty Trust.
2. "Terrorists are not going to do anything against the U.S. before the election. They don't want a woman in office and they don't want to give the Republicans more reason to play the "terrorism" card."
3. The diversity of cities around the world that are seeing global capital investment in real estate are expanding.
4. The U.S. is the biggest exporter of commercial real estate property capital worldwide.
5. In 2007, the number of commercial property transactions in Asia surpassed the U.S. for the first time.
6. Seller financing is coming back in a big way.
7. U.S. office buildings bought by foreign investors has almost doubled in 3Q08 compared to 1Q and 2Q 2008.
Seven years ago on Thursday, I was driving to work in California. My father who lives in Florida called my wife and asked her where I was, knowing that I might be anywhere. She told him and then called me. I turned on the radio and heard that two planes had flown into the World Trade Towers. I don’t know if I’m alone but to a New Yorker like me when I heard those words I thought, “Oh, some small planes hit the TV/Radio towers on top of the WTC One and/or Two. It was only when I got to the office that I saw on a fuzzy TV that had been set up what had really happened. To this day, it is hard to believe that this could and did happen. The loss of life and the injuries that were suffered too tough to think about. But we cannot forget. Sadly, the long, drawn-out process by which a decision was made to rebuild on that site has been embarrassing for the U.S. If this had happened in London, how long do you think it would have taken to build: my guess is 18 months. But we had led a sheltered life in the U.S. for so many years and even now I get a sense that day in and day out we may consider ourselves safe again. On Tuesday I had a meeting at 195 Broadway which was the former HQ of AT&T (which which used to be called The American Telephone and Telegraph Company). I got there early and walked around the block which puts one right at the World Trade Center site. I stood off to the side for a few moments thinking back to August 2001 when my son and I saw a concert one beautiful evening on the stage in the WTC plaza. Prior to the music starting I elbowed Kevin and said, "Look up. Can you believe how big these buildings are. It's an amazing feat." That recent and vivid exposure to the buildings was why it was, and in some ways is, difficult for me to fathom their crumbling so quickly. I don't know why I'd never explored it but I stopped in to St. Pauls Chapel. They have some very moving exhibits and was also where the Sept. 11 workers took naps, got counseling, and restored themselves while working. If you're in the area I encourage you to visit it.
It’s interesting. Principal Global Investors and UBS announce reducing their real estate staffs l due to the slowdown in real estate activity but there continue to be hirings going at other firms. Perhaps it’s just a function of companies having built up larger teams over the past years when things were booming and now they just don’t need all those people. I was part of a downsizing once but I took that job (Workout officer at a large commercial bank) knowing that the best job I could do for them was to work myself out of a job. It lasted three years and it was a great experience. One thing I’ve learned from these type things along the way is that you have to keep an eye on the future, your own future. Only you are in charge of your life, whether you work for a company or not and even if you are blindsided by your employer, if you’ve taken the time to build your own visibility in the industry, nurtured your network and kept your nose clean, you’ll be able to find your next adventure whether it be a job or starting your own firm.
I don’t know about you but when I visit companies and am sitting in the reception area I like checking out the publications that they have on the table. Some companies have the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times or industry specific publication. Sometimes there’ll be a publication, it doesn’t matter if it was four years ago, that featured said company in their cover story. For those companies that have real art in their office there may be an art book or an architectural book (most often about the city in which they’re located). But sometimes there are product research related publications, especially in the larger firms. Not long ago, I was in the office Morley (now Aviva Investors) office in London and a brochure caught my attention. On the cover it said “Peoplebuilding: A place that builds people builds business.” It's a project brochure for a site in in the London suburbs. Much of the content is accompanied by cartoon type graphics but here’s some of the language that interested me about how they’re thinking about (and marketing this concept): A place that builds people builds business. An office building shapes the people who work in it. Years of experience has taught us that if a workplace is built with people in mind, it can actually help build the people working there. If these people become more fulfilled and more energized, that has to be good for business.
What makes a building a Peoplebuilding? There are a number of things which help people work better, such as good light, good air, and attractive design and a good buzz. These things keep people happier and they encourage people to stick around-not just in the working day, but in the number of years they work with you.
Without trying to reproduce the entire brochure here, I’ll just give you some of the ‘headlines’:
Huge floor plates that allow you to be more flexible
Light: lots of glass. (Bright places, bright people).
Air: Good air puts people in a better mood.
Life Beyond Work: bar/brasserie, health and fitness club including day care center (Energy breads energy).
Spirit: a change of environment can raise peoples’ energy levels, clear their heads or give them an idea they wouldn’t otherwise have had.
Peoplebuilding is designed to make people feel good. The buildings and landscape encourage visitors to be inquisitive and sociable. The sounds of a meandering stream, people chatting and the wind in the trees encourages people to be more community minded-proud of their workplace.
Yes, this is a suburban location but I feel that these are the kinds of things that many workers can be attracted to because it talks to their needs and likes as human beings. Yes, the ‘green’ and ‘sustainable’ movements are very important and good and are incorporated into this particular project as well. But mostly, as society changes in ways that perhaps Dr. Schweitzer was way ahead of happening, things more than money are starting to mean a lot to a lot of people around the world. The world consciousness is raising and it’s the young people, who are concerned about their future and the future of planet earth, that are leading the charge. We in the real estate industry can never lose sight of the future.
From Seth Godin’s Blog this week:
Fixing the one big thing
If your 'one big thing' is a key part of what makes you successful, how dare you change it.
On the other hand, if momentum or laziness or lack of will (or focus) is the thing holding you back, it's time to get serious. When you remove the one big thing from people's list of objections, your career and organization will take off.
Joe Biden can carry a timer in his pocket. He can become reticent in public. He can, in just one day of hard work, solve his problem. Verizon can invest focus and and money and solve their problem. AT&T can invest and fix their wireless network. It just takes commitment, not a miracle.
I met with Jean-Claude Goldenstein, the founder of CREOpoint. He went through a thorough explanation of how the site works now and what additional features and opportunities it will have. He is one of the most passionate guys I've run into in a long time and I respect what he's doing. And, while I've been spending more time on Linkedin and Facebook and have gotten some idea of how people are using them (you need to decide to allocate a part of your week to these things), CREOpoint is looking to take the best of those sites and aggregate them. In a similar but different way, Reutersrealestate (http://www.reutersrealestate.com) has launched their own community (Disclaimer: I have been doing some advisory work for Reutersrealestate). It seems like our industry, one of the slowest to adopt technology, is finally catching up.
I was walking past the MTV store on Broadway in New York and stopped in to see some kids playing with the 'video game', "Rock Band". You don't have to be a musician to thoroughly enjoy it. It is very cool. Rock on!
Thanks for signing up for my blog. Thanks for your notes. If you have the time, please pass along the url to others who you think may be interested in reading this (http://stevefelix.blogspot.com).
Thanks. I appreciate it.
Where will I be?
Sept. 9: New York
Sept. 10: New York for RealShares Investment & Finance Conference
http://www.almevents.com/conf_page.cfm?pt=/CustomerFiles_sri/agenda/detailed_agenda.cfm&web_page_id=9491&web_id=1147&instance_id=28&pid=758&iteration_id=854
() where I’ll moderate a panel called “The Influence of Foreign Banks on Today’s Market.”
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference
Oct. 6-8: Munich for Expo Real
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel at The PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate). http://www.peimedia.com/Product.aspx?cID=5496&pID=174808&contType=2.
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Steve
There were no less than six commercial real estate events going on in New York this past week. I guess organizers saw it as a window of sorts or tried to create a window. Other than the proven or niche events, from reports I received, the others struggled to attract numbers and calibre of people they promoted being able to do. But, notwithstanding, I had a great week. The Investment and Finance seminar that RealShares ran was well attended. When I took the 'attendance' of the audience prior to starting the session I was moderating it indicated about 45% to be owner/operator/developers, another good chunk were brokers and finance types and then there were a few 'others' (which I didn't have time to inquire about). We got good feedback on our panel and it was due to preparing for it and having knowledgeable panelists who answered questions directly. I have to blow my own horn here just a little as the success of any panel also has to do with the moderator and if there's one thing I know how to do it's moderate a panel. I ran into a lot of people I knew and hadn't seen in a while both at this event and at Real Capital Analytics rooftop reception at their building at 139 Fifth Avenue. So it's clear that everyone is 'back to school'.
Here are some of the things that I heard this week:
1. "We're sitting on a lot of cash right now. Our biggest challenge is deciding when we should start deploying in scale. We just don't know." Mike Fascitelli, Vornado Realty Trust.
2. "Terrorists are not going to do anything against the U.S. before the election. They don't want a woman in office and they don't want to give the Republicans more reason to play the "terrorism" card."
3. The diversity of cities around the world that are seeing global capital investment in real estate are expanding.
4. The U.S. is the biggest exporter of commercial real estate property capital worldwide.
5. In 2007, the number of commercial property transactions in Asia surpassed the U.S. for the first time.
6. Seller financing is coming back in a big way.
7. U.S. office buildings bought by foreign investors has almost doubled in 3Q08 compared to 1Q and 2Q 2008.
Seven years ago on Thursday, I was driving to work in California. My father who lives in Florida called my wife and asked her where I was, knowing that I might be anywhere. She told him and then called me. I turned on the radio and heard that two planes had flown into the World Trade Towers. I don’t know if I’m alone but to a New Yorker like me when I heard those words I thought, “Oh, some small planes hit the TV/Radio towers on top of the WTC One and/or Two. It was only when I got to the office that I saw on a fuzzy TV that had been set up what had really happened. To this day, it is hard to believe that this could and did happen. The loss of life and the injuries that were suffered too tough to think about. But we cannot forget. Sadly, the long, drawn-out process by which a decision was made to rebuild on that site has been embarrassing for the U.S. If this had happened in London, how long do you think it would have taken to build: my guess is 18 months. But we had led a sheltered life in the U.S. for so many years and even now I get a sense that day in and day out we may consider ourselves safe again. On Tuesday I had a meeting at 195 Broadway which was the former HQ of AT&T (which which used to be called The American Telephone and Telegraph Company). I got there early and walked around the block which puts one right at the World Trade Center site. I stood off to the side for a few moments thinking back to August 2001 when my son and I saw a concert one beautiful evening on the stage in the WTC plaza. Prior to the music starting I elbowed Kevin and said, "Look up. Can you believe how big these buildings are. It's an amazing feat." That recent and vivid exposure to the buildings was why it was, and in some ways is, difficult for me to fathom their crumbling so quickly. I don't know why I'd never explored it but I stopped in to St. Pauls Chapel. They have some very moving exhibits and was also where the Sept. 11 workers took naps, got counseling, and restored themselves while working. If you're in the area I encourage you to visit it.
It’s interesting. Principal Global Investors and UBS announce reducing their real estate staffs l due to the slowdown in real estate activity but there continue to be hirings going at other firms. Perhaps it’s just a function of companies having built up larger teams over the past years when things were booming and now they just don’t need all those people. I was part of a downsizing once but I took that job (Workout officer at a large commercial bank) knowing that the best job I could do for them was to work myself out of a job. It lasted three years and it was a great experience. One thing I’ve learned from these type things along the way is that you have to keep an eye on the future, your own future. Only you are in charge of your life, whether you work for a company or not and even if you are blindsided by your employer, if you’ve taken the time to build your own visibility in the industry, nurtured your network and kept your nose clean, you’ll be able to find your next adventure whether it be a job or starting your own firm.
I don’t know about you but when I visit companies and am sitting in the reception area I like checking out the publications that they have on the table. Some companies have the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times or industry specific publication. Sometimes there’ll be a publication, it doesn’t matter if it was four years ago, that featured said company in their cover story. For those companies that have real art in their office there may be an art book or an architectural book (most often about the city in which they’re located). But sometimes there are product research related publications, especially in the larger firms. Not long ago, I was in the office Morley (now Aviva Investors) office in London and a brochure caught my attention. On the cover it said “Peoplebuilding: A place that builds people builds business.” It's a project brochure for a site in in the London suburbs. Much of the content is accompanied by cartoon type graphics but here’s some of the language that interested me about how they’re thinking about (and marketing this concept): A place that builds people builds business. An office building shapes the people who work in it. Years of experience has taught us that if a workplace is built with people in mind, it can actually help build the people working there. If these people become more fulfilled and more energized, that has to be good for business.
What makes a building a Peoplebuilding? There are a number of things which help people work better, such as good light, good air, and attractive design and a good buzz. These things keep people happier and they encourage people to stick around-not just in the working day, but in the number of years they work with you.
Without trying to reproduce the entire brochure here, I’ll just give you some of the ‘headlines’:
Huge floor plates that allow you to be more flexible
Light: lots of glass. (Bright places, bright people).
Air: Good air puts people in a better mood.
Life Beyond Work: bar/brasserie, health and fitness club including day care center (Energy breads energy).
Spirit: a change of environment can raise peoples’ energy levels, clear their heads or give them an idea they wouldn’t otherwise have had.
Peoplebuilding is designed to make people feel good. The buildings and landscape encourage visitors to be inquisitive and sociable. The sounds of a meandering stream, people chatting and the wind in the trees encourages people to be more community minded-proud of their workplace.
Yes, this is a suburban location but I feel that these are the kinds of things that many workers can be attracted to because it talks to their needs and likes as human beings. Yes, the ‘green’ and ‘sustainable’ movements are very important and good and are incorporated into this particular project as well. But mostly, as society changes in ways that perhaps Dr. Schweitzer was way ahead of happening, things more than money are starting to mean a lot to a lot of people around the world. The world consciousness is raising and it’s the young people, who are concerned about their future and the future of planet earth, that are leading the charge. We in the real estate industry can never lose sight of the future.
From Seth Godin’s Blog this week:
Fixing the one big thing
- Joe Biden is long winded. His voters say so, so does the press. And now his new boss does as well. The feedback couldn't be more clear. So why not fix it?
- Verizon has mind-numbingly bad customer service. People hate to call them. People switch providers just to avoid this problem. So why not fix it?
- DiFara's makes the best pizza in New York. But it takes 90 minutes or so to get a pizza. Everyone complains, so why not fix it? In the case of DiFara's, the answer is easy: because fixing it would make it normal. It would take away what makes the place special. People wouldn't complain any more, but people wouldn't go, either.
If your 'one big thing' is a key part of what makes you successful, how dare you change it.
On the other hand, if momentum or laziness or lack of will (or focus) is the thing holding you back, it's time to get serious. When you remove the one big thing from people's list of objections, your career and organization will take off.
Joe Biden can carry a timer in his pocket. He can become reticent in public. He can, in just one day of hard work, solve his problem. Verizon can invest focus and and money and solve their problem. AT&T can invest and fix their wireless network. It just takes commitment, not a miracle.
I met with Jean-Claude Goldenstein, the founder of CREOpoint. He went through a thorough explanation of how the site works now and what additional features and opportunities it will have. He is one of the most passionate guys I've run into in a long time and I respect what he's doing. And, while I've been spending more time on Linkedin and Facebook and have gotten some idea of how people are using them (you need to decide to allocate a part of your week to these things), CREOpoint is looking to take the best of those sites and aggregate them. In a similar but different way, Reutersrealestate (http://www.reutersrealestate.com) has launched their own community (Disclaimer: I have been doing some advisory work for Reutersrealestate). It seems like our industry, one of the slowest to adopt technology, is finally catching up.
I was walking past the MTV store on Broadway in New York and stopped in to see some kids playing with the 'video game', "Rock Band". You don't have to be a musician to thoroughly enjoy it. It is very cool. Rock on!
Thanks for signing up for my blog. Thanks for your notes. If you have the time, please pass along the url to others who you think may be interested in reading this (http://stevefelix.blogspot.com).
Thanks. I appreciate it.
Where will I be?
Sept. 9: New York
Sept. 10: New York for RealShares Investment & Finance Conference
http://www.almevents.com/conf_page.cfm?pt=/CustomerFiles_sri/agenda/detailed_agenda.cfm&web_page_id=9491&web_id=1147&instance_id=28&pid=758&iteration_id=854
() where I’ll moderate a panel called “The Influence of Foreign Banks on Today’s Market.”
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference
Oct. 6-8: Munich for Expo Real
Nov. 12-13: New York to moderate a panel at The PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate). http://www.peimedia.com/Product.aspx?cID=5496&pID=174808&contType=2.
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Indian Summer
Today I’m proud to announce that PERE (Private Equity Real Estate) has published a short piece by me on their website http://www.pere.com. I’m also working with them on their third annual PERE Forum (http://www.peimedia.com/pereny08) which takes place in New York on November 12-13. They have some excellent sessions which dig in to the global private equity real estate world including one-on-one interviews with Apollo’s Lee Neibart and JER’s Michael Pralle.
Reuters Real Estate is offering FREE access to their premium membership through 10/31/08. To check it out log in at http://www.reutersrealestate.com. There is a lot of news and are some powerful research tools including a social network (Community tab).
Some of you know that in the winter of 2006 I went to Liberia with The MacDella Cooper Foundation (MCF) who work with needy children. It was a life changing experience for me. Each year, MCF holds a couple of fund raisers. Their biggest one is coming up soon, October 23 to be exact. It’s in New York and you can find out how to attend or simply how to make a donation here: http://www.macdellacooper.org. This group does terrific work for kids who otherwise may never get a chance.
When I read I either highlight, underline or make notes of things that are important to me or that I want to remember. I’ve found that taking those things and writing them in a central place (or typing them and saving them) reinforce them and make them more accessible to me. This past week I found this item and want to share it with you. “The things he stood for were the things for which the new generation stands-a return to the earth and a respect for nature; peace; simplicity; spontaneity; the stripping away of the false values of a materialistic civilization to rediscover the true values of human relationship-relationship with other people and the whole of creation.” This is from a biography of Albert Schweitzer (January 14, 1875 – September 4, 1965, a German theologian, musician, philosopher, and physician. He received the 1952 Nobel Peace Prize in 1953 for his philosophy of "reverence for life".
Given all that is going on in the world today, perhaps we need more thinking like Dr. Schweitzer.
This summer, on a small plane from Montreal to New York I sat amongst some guys that I knew were a band. It wasn’t too difficult to guess especially as it was during the Montreal Jazz Festival. Anyway, I learned that they were Tabou Combo, the Worlds # 1 Konpa Band http://www.taboucombo.com. I had never heard of Konpa and found out that it’s heritage is from Haiti. Anyway, they’re celebrating their 40th anniversary so they must be doing something right. Nice guys too.
Sarah Cooper, Director of Real Estate Equities for Merrill Lynch in London sends out an info chocked email to her clients. She also includes some fun stuff from time to time. This week she noted “With so many of us traveling this week to EPRA, we looked at some ''Lost in Translation'', interesting translations of signs found in hotels.”
• Berlin Cloakroom - Please hang yourself here
• Lobby of a Moscow hotel opposite a Russian Orthodox Monastry - You are welcome to visit the cemetery where famous Russian & Soviet composers, artists & writers are buried daily except Thursdays.
• Eithiopia - To call room service, please to open dorr and call Room Service. Please call quiet, people may sleep.
• Tokyo - Is forbitten to steal hotle towels please. If you are not person to do such thing is pleasen ot to read notis.
• Seoul - Measles not included in room charge
• Bankkok - Please maintain termperature at 1 degree from 25, any higher or lower will only make the room hotter or colder.
• Qatar - Please do not use the lift when its not working
• France - Please leave your values at the front desk
• Romania - The lift is being fixed for the next day. During that time we regret that you will be unbearable.
• India - The Old Ladakh Guest House (hospitalising since 1974)
• Italy - This hotel is renowned for its peace & solitude. In fact, crowds from all over the world flock here to enjoy its solitude.
• Tel Aviv - If you wish breakfast, lift the telephone and out waitress will arrive. This will be enough to bring up your food.
• Zurich - Because of the impropriety of entertaining guests of the opposite s#x in the bedroom, it is suggested that the lobby be used for this purpose.
• Finland - If you cannot reach a fire exit, close the door and expose yourself at the window.
• Florence - Fire! It is what we can be doing, we hope. No fear. Not ourselves. Say quickly to all people coming up down, everywhere, a prayer always is a clerk. He is assured of safety by expert men who are in the bar for telephone for the fighters of the fire come out.
• Madrid - our wine list leaves you nothing to hope for.
• Ankara - You are invite to visit our restaurant where you can eat Middle East Foods in a European ambulance.
• Spain. There's a beach which has underground springs running underneath it. It is a little unsturdy as a result. The sign says: Beware - beach of irregular bottoms
• Poland - As for the trip served you at the Hotel Monopol, you will be singing its praises to your grandchildren on your deathbed.
• Athens - Visitors are expected to complain at the office between the hours of 9 and 11am daily.
• Mexico - The manager has personally passed all the water served here.
• London - All fire extinguishers must be examined at least five days before any fire.
This is the kind of stuff that you just can’t make up ☺
Whether it’s a real address book or your electronic database it’s always difficult when you have to remove someone’s name. Many years ago I started using a pencil for the address portion of my daily book. Things change. The most difficult ones are removing a name of someone who has died. Over the years I found myself keeping them there maybe not wanting to believe or accept that someone has passed away and I could no longer pick up the phone and call them and would never see them again except in photos. Others, while not as final, are equally difficult like when someone has moved and you don’t know where to find them or someone has changed or left a job and it’s only when you send them an email and get back the dreaded “Delivery to the following recipient failed permanently” message that you realize you’re not in contact with them. It happened to me this week and it made me sad, again, knowing that I would not be able to maintain contact while this particular person, who I considered an industry friend, even though they had not passed away. A long time ago I felt that if people didn’t call or write me they weren’t interested in me (B.E.=Before Email). Then I found out that there are certain people who are more gregarious with their outreach and their connectivity and there are those that are less. So when I found out that just because people weren’t calling me, they were happy to hear from me and that regardless of what insecurity I felt, there was nothing wrong. I’ve always appreciated and respected the connectivity I have with friends and acquaintances and technology has made it imminently easier to stay in touch. But one must maintain a respect, a reverence, as it were, for your ‘network’. It’s like having a relationship with one person but hundreds of time over and it takes nurturing and care and respect. Over the summer I’ve gotten into exploring more about the online networks/communities such as Linkedin.com, Plaxo.com (which someone told me crashed his computer), Facebook.com and now more recently Creopoint.com and the community on Reutersrealestate.com. I’ve even started my own community (so far it’s just me and the friend who told me about the site). I’m finding that they do serve a purpose, each one in its own way but I hope that they don’t become a substitute for people talking and visiting with each other only a vehicle for making those ‘real’ connections (vs. real-time) happen.
P.S. I had signed up for Skype when it first came out but didn’t really use it. I’m starting to use it more and it really works.
Where will I be?
Sept. 9: New York
Sept. 10: New York for RealShares Investment & Finance Conference
http://www.almevents.com/conf_page.cfm?pt=/CustomerFiles_sri/agenda/detailed_agenda.cfm&web_page_id=9491&web_id=1147&instance_id=28&pid=758&iteration_id=854
() where I’ll moderate a panel called “The Influence of Foreign Banks on Today’s Market.”
Sept. 10-11: New York to attend CityScape USA conf_page.cfm?pt=/CustomerFiles_sri/agenda/detailed_agenda.cfm&web_page_id=9491&web_id=1147&instance_id=28&pid=758&iteration_id=854).
Sept. 11: New York for FIABCI-USA UN Luncheon (http://www.fiabci.com) where Bob White, Founder of Real Capital Analytics will be the keynote speaker.
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference
Oct. 6-8: Munich for Expo Real
Oct. 31-Nov.3: Boston to attend the CRE Annual Convention.
Nov. 12-13: New York to attend The PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate). http://www.peimedia.com/Product.aspx?cID=5496&pID=174808&contType=2.
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Reuters Real Estate is offering FREE access to their premium membership through 10/31/08. To check it out log in at http://www.reutersrealestate.com. There is a lot of news and are some powerful research tools including a social network (Community tab).
Some of you know that in the winter of 2006 I went to Liberia with The MacDella Cooper Foundation (MCF) who work with needy children. It was a life changing experience for me. Each year, MCF holds a couple of fund raisers. Their biggest one is coming up soon, October 23 to be exact. It’s in New York and you can find out how to attend or simply how to make a donation here: http://www.macdellacooper.org. This group does terrific work for kids who otherwise may never get a chance.
When I read I either highlight, underline or make notes of things that are important to me or that I want to remember. I’ve found that taking those things and writing them in a central place (or typing them and saving them) reinforce them and make them more accessible to me. This past week I found this item and want to share it with you. “The things he stood for were the things for which the new generation stands-a return to the earth and a respect for nature; peace; simplicity; spontaneity; the stripping away of the false values of a materialistic civilization to rediscover the true values of human relationship-relationship with other people and the whole of creation.” This is from a biography of Albert Schweitzer (January 14, 1875 – September 4, 1965, a German theologian, musician, philosopher, and physician. He received the 1952 Nobel Peace Prize in 1953 for his philosophy of "reverence for life".
Given all that is going on in the world today, perhaps we need more thinking like Dr. Schweitzer.
This summer, on a small plane from Montreal to New York I sat amongst some guys that I knew were a band. It wasn’t too difficult to guess especially as it was during the Montreal Jazz Festival. Anyway, I learned that they were Tabou Combo, the Worlds # 1 Konpa Band http://www.taboucombo.com. I had never heard of Konpa and found out that it’s heritage is from Haiti. Anyway, they’re celebrating their 40th anniversary so they must be doing something right. Nice guys too.
Sarah Cooper, Director of Real Estate Equities for Merrill Lynch in London sends out an info chocked email to her clients. She also includes some fun stuff from time to time. This week she noted “With so many of us traveling this week to EPRA, we looked at some ''Lost in Translation'', interesting translations of signs found in hotels.”
• Berlin Cloakroom - Please hang yourself here
• Lobby of a Moscow hotel opposite a Russian Orthodox Monastry - You are welcome to visit the cemetery where famous Russian & Soviet composers, artists & writers are buried daily except Thursdays.
• Eithiopia - To call room service, please to open dorr and call Room Service. Please call quiet, people may sleep.
• Tokyo - Is forbitten to steal hotle towels please. If you are not person to do such thing is pleasen ot to read notis.
• Seoul - Measles not included in room charge
• Bankkok - Please maintain termperature at 1 degree from 25, any higher or lower will only make the room hotter or colder.
• Qatar - Please do not use the lift when its not working
• France - Please leave your values at the front desk
• Romania - The lift is being fixed for the next day. During that time we regret that you will be unbearable.
• India - The Old Ladakh Guest House (hospitalising since 1974)
• Italy - This hotel is renowned for its peace & solitude. In fact, crowds from all over the world flock here to enjoy its solitude.
• Tel Aviv - If you wish breakfast, lift the telephone and out waitress will arrive. This will be enough to bring up your food.
• Zurich - Because of the impropriety of entertaining guests of the opposite s#x in the bedroom, it is suggested that the lobby be used for this purpose.
• Finland - If you cannot reach a fire exit, close the door and expose yourself at the window.
• Florence - Fire! It is what we can be doing, we hope. No fear. Not ourselves. Say quickly to all people coming up down, everywhere, a prayer always is a clerk. He is assured of safety by expert men who are in the bar for telephone for the fighters of the fire come out.
• Madrid - our wine list leaves you nothing to hope for.
• Ankara - You are invite to visit our restaurant where you can eat Middle East Foods in a European ambulance.
• Spain. There's a beach which has underground springs running underneath it. It is a little unsturdy as a result. The sign says: Beware - beach of irregular bottoms
• Poland - As for the trip served you at the Hotel Monopol, you will be singing its praises to your grandchildren on your deathbed.
• Athens - Visitors are expected to complain at the office between the hours of 9 and 11am daily.
• Mexico - The manager has personally passed all the water served here.
• London - All fire extinguishers must be examined at least five days before any fire.
This is the kind of stuff that you just can’t make up ☺
Whether it’s a real address book or your electronic database it’s always difficult when you have to remove someone’s name. Many years ago I started using a pencil for the address portion of my daily book. Things change. The most difficult ones are removing a name of someone who has died. Over the years I found myself keeping them there maybe not wanting to believe or accept that someone has passed away and I could no longer pick up the phone and call them and would never see them again except in photos. Others, while not as final, are equally difficult like when someone has moved and you don’t know where to find them or someone has changed or left a job and it’s only when you send them an email and get back the dreaded “Delivery to the following recipient failed permanently” message that you realize you’re not in contact with them. It happened to me this week and it made me sad, again, knowing that I would not be able to maintain contact while this particular person, who I considered an industry friend, even though they had not passed away. A long time ago I felt that if people didn’t call or write me they weren’t interested in me (B.E.=Before Email). Then I found out that there are certain people who are more gregarious with their outreach and their connectivity and there are those that are less. So when I found out that just because people weren’t calling me, they were happy to hear from me and that regardless of what insecurity I felt, there was nothing wrong. I’ve always appreciated and respected the connectivity I have with friends and acquaintances and technology has made it imminently easier to stay in touch. But one must maintain a respect, a reverence, as it were, for your ‘network’. It’s like having a relationship with one person but hundreds of time over and it takes nurturing and care and respect. Over the summer I’ve gotten into exploring more about the online networks/communities such as Linkedin.com, Plaxo.com (which someone told me crashed his computer), Facebook.com and now more recently Creopoint.com and the community on Reutersrealestate.com. I’ve even started my own community (so far it’s just me and the friend who told me about the site). I’m finding that they do serve a purpose, each one in its own way but I hope that they don’t become a substitute for people talking and visiting with each other only a vehicle for making those ‘real’ connections (vs. real-time) happen.
P.S. I had signed up for Skype when it first came out but didn’t really use it. I’m starting to use it more and it really works.
Where will I be?
Sept. 9: New York
Sept. 10: New York for RealShares Investment & Finance Conference
http://www.almevents.com/conf_page.cfm?pt=/CustomerFiles_sri/agenda/detailed_agenda.cfm&web_page_id=9491&web_id=1147&instance_id=28&pid=758&iteration_id=854
() where I’ll moderate a panel called “The Influence of Foreign Banks on Today’s Market.”
Sept. 10-11: New York to attend CityScape USA conf_page.cfm?pt=/CustomerFiles_sri/agenda/detailed_agenda.cfm&web_page_id=9491&web_id=1147&instance_id=28&pid=758&iteration_id=854).
Sept. 11: New York for FIABCI-USA UN Luncheon (http://www.fiabci.com) where Bob White, Founder of Real Capital Analytics will be the keynote speaker.
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference
Oct. 6-8: Munich for Expo Real
Oct. 31-Nov.3: Boston to attend the CRE Annual Convention.
Nov. 12-13: New York to attend The PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate). http://www.peimedia.com/Product.aspx?cID=5496&pID=174808&contType=2.
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition.
Friday, August 29, 2008
End of the Innocence
Well, I’ve checked out all the commercial real estate news sites today and no one mentions the long weekend we’re having in the U.S. and Canada this weekend. But then again, they don’t usually. The news knows no holidays although summer, especially August is still a little slower than the rest of the year. I’ve found that a number of people in the U.S. have taken this week off (God forbid that they take two weeks off) which dovetails into this three day weekend. Those with school age children will probably return from their holiday over the weekend or at least on Sunday to get ready for the first day of school, which in many areas is September 2, but in others, especially the Sunbelt, have started already. The biggest story today is about a New York developer/owner who built up an $8mm square foot portfolio of office buildings in partnership with Richard Kalikow. When Kalikow and he split, Kalikow sued him for misrepresentation and fraud. Seems like young Adam Hochfelder has attracted more interest as he has been as been arrested and indicted by the Manhattan District Attorney for "stealing more than $17 million from a panoply of banks and individuals." But that’s more of the real estate tabloid news. The end of the summer is not like the end of the year when deals just have to close and perhaps we were all hoping that by the time the summer had ended that things would be better. Unfortunately, they’re not. It’s not that they’re bad (unless you’re trying to sell your home) it’s just that they’re not as good as they were and still no end in sight to the troubles that are stifling us.
When I read that Leroy had passed away recently I have to admit that I didn’t know who he was. (Leroy Sievers. A journalist for more than 25 years, Leroy has worked at CBS News and ABC News, where he was the executive producer at Nightline). But I read that he had been writing a blog and decided to bookmark it and go back and read/scan it sometime (http://www.npr.org/blogs/mycancer/2008/08). I did that last Sunday morning. The blog continues to be written by Leroy’s wife Laurie and it’s obvious that she gets some comfort out of both having that outlet and the dozens, sometimes hundreds of comments posted in response to each blog posting. It’s a beautiful, sad and sobering documentary but it’s also inspiring. If you have a few minutes, you may want to take a peek.
There’s a piece in this week’s The New Yorker magazine called “A Greenwich of the Mind: Old money and new, in the age of foreclosure.” This is Greenwich, Connecticut USA which is a relatively short commuter train ride into midtown Manhattan and which has become one of the wealthiest and from a real estate standpoint priciest towns in the nation. Greenwich, like Short Hills, NJ (where I used to live amongst the “MacMansions”, when perfectly good homes are torn down in favor of ginormous new houses, many on undersized lots) and a select number of other communities attracted the wealth and nouveau riche which for many years has included Wall Street, private equity and corporation C-suite people. This article focuses on some residential builders who did very well building spec mansions but have come on some difficult times, as have some of the homeowners themselves. But there was one section that caught my eye and it’s part of the narrative (vs. a direct quote). “In real estate, the only thing more important than location is optimism. Rosy projections create a kind of fog that can make it all but impossible to measure the prospects of a project, or of a privately held real-estate firm.” Well, it’s clear to me that the writer, Nick Paumgarten, is truly a novice at the real estate industry. Yes, those of us that have been around the block and some more than once have seen developers build things that just don’t seem to make sense and that’s because they don’t. The market sometimes bails out these developments, not necessarily in the negative sense of ‘bailout’ but because the momentum in the market is such that the greater fool theory works (a developer builds something and there’s a tenant (s) or a buyer who is ready to pony up). And, while I’m sure The New Yorker is read by a number of real estate types, it’s read by more who are not. Yet, those people may be investors, as the demographics of the readership of magazine suggests, who are possibly current and future investors in real estate funds. So, while the writer’s story can’t really be considered the type of “Headline News” that has required the management and maintenance of those of us in the institutional real estate community (which, if you want to last isn’t built on deals made in a fog, although over the past 10 years, some deals were made in a different, somewhat altered state of mind) it is a misnomer that professional real estate investment fund managers just don’t do. Anyway, the real story here is that it’s not just the sub prime market that is in dire straights; it’s the prime mortgages too and the economic conditions right now are showing deeper, wider and more far reaching negative impact on the U.S. than anyone wanted to believe in August 2008. In our move to Montreal we bought a house in June. We still feel that we got a fair deal, as do the sellers. We also got a very good mortgage rate, as our credit score is pretty good. But we also still own our home in California (Anyone want to buy a nice house in the Napa Valley?), which we have not put on the market. We have a friend/tenant living in the house and for the time being we’re going hold on to it. Prices in Napa have declined about 15-20% in the past 15 months or so. But, the real problem as I see it is that there are too many buyers who feel that every house for sale is a distressed sale and feel they can pick it up for a song. Sorry but while I may be a little stressed, I am not distressed and contrary to what some loud-mouthed authors of get rich in real estate espouse, I’ve got a pretty good asset in that house. However, we have no need for the Napa house and probably 1Q or 2Q09 it’ll be sold.
Last week I wrote about whether there’ll be a type of website, not unlike Linkedin.com just for the commercial real estate industry. I have some inside knowledge that one is being built and will be launched very soon. But thanks to Scott Perkins of NAI Hanson (http://www.squarefootwarehouse.com) I now know of CREOPOINT (http://www.creopoint.com). It’s fairly new but it’s looking to become “the meeting point where CRE professionals learn, share and connect better, further and faster.” I like how they’ve set it up and signed up as a member. But I still wish things were easier. Perhaps it’ll just take time, like when VHS and BETA were slugging it out or more recently when Blu-Ray and HD-TV battled to be the successor to the DVD (BTW, we don’t watch much TV but after selling our 19” TV at our garage sale we went for a state-of-the-art system including a Blu-Ray player. It is unbelievable! Now it’s just a matter of waiting for more of the movies that we’d like to see come out in that format. For now, there are a lot of action films).
People Stuff
1. There were rumors about this and now it’s official:
Joseph Azrack, the former president and CEO of Citi Property Investors, will join Leon Black’s new real estate arm, Apollo Global a separate entity from the veteran real estate firm named Apollo Real Estate. Apollo Global's operation will focus, initially, on distressed debt and recapitalizations. Joe was also former CEO of AEW.
2. Industry Mentors. I was looking at IIR’s list of Rising Stars: Real Estate for 2007. Included are each person’s mentors and a summary of the mentor list. The commercial/institutional real estate industry has sometimes been criticized for not providing enough mentoring but it’s rewarding for me to see that some of the mentors’ listed are people that I consider industry friends:
a. Charlie Lowery, Prudential; Terry Ahern, The Townsend Group; Greg Vorwaller, CBRE; Steve Quazzo, Transwestern Investment Company; Robert Duncan, Transwestern Commercial Services; Doug Abbey, AMB; Chuck Leitner, RREEF; Carl Schwartz, Herrick Feinstein. Giving something back to the industry via being a mentor is priceless.
Thanks again to everyone who has reached out to me to congratulate me on launching this blog. I sincerely appreciate hearing from you (steve@simplicate.com).
Where will I be?
Sept. 10: New York for RealShares Investment & Finance Conference (http://www.almevents.com/conf_page.cfm?pt=/CustomerFiles_sri/agenda/detailed_agenda.cfm&web_page_id=9491&web_id=1147&instance_id=28&pid=758&iteration_id=854) where I’ll moderate a panel called “The Influence of Foreign Banks on Today’s Market.”
Sept. 10-11: New York to attend CityScape USA (http://www.cityscape.ae/index.html).
Sept. 11: New York for FIABCI-USA UN Luncheon (http://www.fiabci.com) where Bob White, Founder of Real Capital Analytics will be the keynote speaker (http://www.rcanalytics.com).
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference (http://www.prea.com).
Oct. 6-8: Munich for Expo Real (http://www.exporeal.net).
Oct. 31-Nov.3: Boston to attend the CRE Annual Convention (http://cre.org).
Nov. 12-13: New York to attend The PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate). (http://www.peimedia.com/Product.aspx?cID=5496&pID=174808&contType=2).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition. (http://www.kenan-flagler.unc.edu) and if the weather cooperates play some golf.
When I read that Leroy had passed away recently I have to admit that I didn’t know who he was. (Leroy Sievers. A journalist for more than 25 years, Leroy has worked at CBS News and ABC News, where he was the executive producer at Nightline). But I read that he had been writing a blog and decided to bookmark it and go back and read/scan it sometime (http://www.npr.org/blogs/mycancer/2008/08). I did that last Sunday morning. The blog continues to be written by Leroy’s wife Laurie and it’s obvious that she gets some comfort out of both having that outlet and the dozens, sometimes hundreds of comments posted in response to each blog posting. It’s a beautiful, sad and sobering documentary but it’s also inspiring. If you have a few minutes, you may want to take a peek.
There’s a piece in this week’s The New Yorker magazine called “A Greenwich of the Mind: Old money and new, in the age of foreclosure.” This is Greenwich, Connecticut USA which is a relatively short commuter train ride into midtown Manhattan and which has become one of the wealthiest and from a real estate standpoint priciest towns in the nation. Greenwich, like Short Hills, NJ (where I used to live amongst the “MacMansions”, when perfectly good homes are torn down in favor of ginormous new houses, many on undersized lots) and a select number of other communities attracted the wealth and nouveau riche which for many years has included Wall Street, private equity and corporation C-suite people. This article focuses on some residential builders who did very well building spec mansions but have come on some difficult times, as have some of the homeowners themselves. But there was one section that caught my eye and it’s part of the narrative (vs. a direct quote). “In real estate, the only thing more important than location is optimism. Rosy projections create a kind of fog that can make it all but impossible to measure the prospects of a project, or of a privately held real-estate firm.” Well, it’s clear to me that the writer, Nick Paumgarten, is truly a novice at the real estate industry. Yes, those of us that have been around the block and some more than once have seen developers build things that just don’t seem to make sense and that’s because they don’t. The market sometimes bails out these developments, not necessarily in the negative sense of ‘bailout’ but because the momentum in the market is such that the greater fool theory works (a developer builds something and there’s a tenant (s) or a buyer who is ready to pony up). And, while I’m sure The New Yorker is read by a number of real estate types, it’s read by more who are not. Yet, those people may be investors, as the demographics of the readership of magazine suggests, who are possibly current and future investors in real estate funds. So, while the writer’s story can’t really be considered the type of “Headline News” that has required the management and maintenance of those of us in the institutional real estate community (which, if you want to last isn’t built on deals made in a fog, although over the past 10 years, some deals were made in a different, somewhat altered state of mind) it is a misnomer that professional real estate investment fund managers just don’t do. Anyway, the real story here is that it’s not just the sub prime market that is in dire straights; it’s the prime mortgages too and the economic conditions right now are showing deeper, wider and more far reaching negative impact on the U.S. than anyone wanted to believe in August 2008. In our move to Montreal we bought a house in June. We still feel that we got a fair deal, as do the sellers. We also got a very good mortgage rate, as our credit score is pretty good. But we also still own our home in California (Anyone want to buy a nice house in the Napa Valley?), which we have not put on the market. We have a friend/tenant living in the house and for the time being we’re going hold on to it. Prices in Napa have declined about 15-20% in the past 15 months or so. But, the real problem as I see it is that there are too many buyers who feel that every house for sale is a distressed sale and feel they can pick it up for a song. Sorry but while I may be a little stressed, I am not distressed and contrary to what some loud-mouthed authors of get rich in real estate espouse, I’ve got a pretty good asset in that house. However, we have no need for the Napa house and probably 1Q or 2Q09 it’ll be sold.
Last week I wrote about whether there’ll be a type of website, not unlike Linkedin.com just for the commercial real estate industry. I have some inside knowledge that one is being built and will be launched very soon. But thanks to Scott Perkins of NAI Hanson (http://www.squarefootwarehouse.com) I now know of CREOPOINT (http://www.creopoint.com). It’s fairly new but it’s looking to become “the meeting point where CRE professionals learn, share and connect better, further and faster.” I like how they’ve set it up and signed up as a member. But I still wish things were easier. Perhaps it’ll just take time, like when VHS and BETA were slugging it out or more recently when Blu-Ray and HD-TV battled to be the successor to the DVD (BTW, we don’t watch much TV but after selling our 19” TV at our garage sale we went for a state-of-the-art system including a Blu-Ray player. It is unbelievable! Now it’s just a matter of waiting for more of the movies that we’d like to see come out in that format. For now, there are a lot of action films).
People Stuff
1. There were rumors about this and now it’s official:
Joseph Azrack, the former president and CEO of Citi Property Investors, will join Leon Black’s new real estate arm, Apollo Global a separate entity from the veteran real estate firm named Apollo Real Estate. Apollo Global's operation will focus, initially, on distressed debt and recapitalizations. Joe was also former CEO of AEW.
2. Industry Mentors. I was looking at IIR’s list of Rising Stars: Real Estate for 2007. Included are each person’s mentors and a summary of the mentor list. The commercial/institutional real estate industry has sometimes been criticized for not providing enough mentoring but it’s rewarding for me to see that some of the mentors’ listed are people that I consider industry friends:
a. Charlie Lowery, Prudential; Terry Ahern, The Townsend Group; Greg Vorwaller, CBRE; Steve Quazzo, Transwestern Investment Company; Robert Duncan, Transwestern Commercial Services; Doug Abbey, AMB; Chuck Leitner, RREEF; Carl Schwartz, Herrick Feinstein. Giving something back to the industry via being a mentor is priceless.
Thanks again to everyone who has reached out to me to congratulate me on launching this blog. I sincerely appreciate hearing from you (steve@simplicate.com).
Where will I be?
Sept. 10: New York for RealShares Investment & Finance Conference (http://www.almevents.com/conf_page.cfm?pt=/CustomerFiles_sri/agenda/detailed_agenda.cfm&web_page_id=9491&web_id=1147&instance_id=28&pid=758&iteration_id=854) where I’ll moderate a panel called “The Influence of Foreign Banks on Today’s Market.”
Sept. 10-11: New York to attend CityScape USA (http://www.cityscape.ae/index.html).
Sept. 11: New York for FIABCI-USA UN Luncheon (http://www.fiabci.com) where Bob White, Founder of Real Capital Analytics will be the keynote speaker (http://www.rcanalytics.com).
Oct. 1-3: Chicago for PREA’s 18th Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate Conference (http://www.prea.com).
Oct. 6-8: Munich for Expo Real (http://www.exporeal.net).
Oct. 31-Nov.3: Boston to attend the CRE Annual Convention (http://cre.org).
Nov. 12-13: New York to attend The PERE Forum (Private Equity Real Estate). (http://www.peimedia.com/Product.aspx?cID=5496&pID=174808&contType=2).
Feb. 19-20, 2009: Chapel Hill, NC to attend the Kenan-Flagler Center for Real Estate Development’s Annual Conference and Real Estate Challenge Case Competition. (http://www.kenan-flagler.unc.edu) and if the weather cooperates play some golf.
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